Ukrainian War Developments

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Anlsvrthng

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Weaasel said:
From that perspective it means permanent war. No government installed by the Kremlin will be regarded as legitimate. It will be extremely costly to install such a regime in power. Propping up such a government will require a great expenditure of resources. What Russia can much more easily maintain is constant harassment of Ukraine at the border areas as long as a government in Kiev has a hostile posturing towards Russia.
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They want to make Ukraine a federal state.

It will looks like this :
lukas.jpg
Federal goverment with very limited power, independent subject, with federal level constitution that contain all security gurantees fo Russia, to change it they need say agreement from all subject of the federation, and probably many more requirement.

The individual regions could do they independent elections, and they could elect the representatives of the federal goverment.


Russian military units in sealed bases, probably federal level guarding of the borders.


The regions could fix the issue of the local resistance.

Long term it could be the model for the baltic + belorus.

A federal country composed of Belorus + Lithuania + Estonia + Latvia, with the Ukrainan federal model.
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Anlsvrthng said:
They want to make Ukraine a federal state.

It will looks like this :
View attachment 84673
Federal goverment with very limited power, independent subject, with federal level constitution that contain all security gurantees fo Russia, to change it they need say agreement from all subject of the federation, and probably many more requirement.

The individual regions could do they independent elections, and they could elect the representatives of the federal goverment.


Russian military units in sealed bases, probably federal level guarding of the borders.


The regions could fix the issue of the local resistance.

Long term it could be the model for the baltic + belorus.

A federal country composed of Belorus + Lithuania + Estonia + Latvia, with the Ukrainan federal model.
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Really, with all those Baltic States included? Don't make laugh... What you are saying sounds a lot like what one hears from Western talking points of Putin wanting to recreate the Soviet Union when doing so will bring about World War 2.

It is patently ridiculous with regards to incorporating the Baltic countries. And with regards to Belarus, Russia's OK with any status quo that does not ensure that a leader hostile to it comes to power. The Belarussians will themselves know the consequences of wanting to be part of NATO even after Lukashenka leaves office.
 
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DeLorean

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Somehow they appeal a video that those UK soldiers using a RPG-7 took down a T72B3.Which is pretty unbelievable. Consider T72B3 as a advanced tank(pretty much as good as T90). But the video shows that the whole tank was lighted up after been hit. it's hard to tell if T72B3 is as good as they claim.
 
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ansy1968

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Overbom said:
Putin isn't going to agree on only neutrality. You can expect him to either annex or (most probably) make Eastern Ukraine an "independent" state which will be controlled by Russia.

Russia will also make Western Ukraine a landlocked country cutoff from its ports

There is also a chance of complete annexation of Ukraine, but I think this is very unlikely to actually happen
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@Overbom bro what will happen to Western Ukraine aka the Bandera Land? It was once a part of Polish confederation? will Poland absorb it? and Putin had no interest in occupying it.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

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Weaasel said:
It is still a huge capitulation on the part of Kiev that they had resisted. Remember, the Russians do not have an infinite amount of time, except if China is willing to prop Russia up in exchange for mineral and other commodity resources, or if Putin had actually already enacted plans to be entirely economically cut off from the West and be self reliance entirely in ensuring that its economy is able to replicate demands for goods demanded from the West, be produced domestically, or also be purchased from non- Western aligned countries.

Sweden was NEVER neutral.

Other countries won't let Finland join NATO.

If Ukraine accepts neutrality, so as to avoid a conflict, a number of countries in NATO won't ever allow it to join. Germany and France are not interested in American geopolitical obsession of weakening ever major regional power in Eurasia that is not aligned with it...
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True, but Russia can extract more conditions beyond mere neutrality if they keep pushing.

1. Entire Donetsk, Lugansk, Crimea + Mariupol and surrounding raion formally recognized as Russian (land bridge Crimea to Russia)

2. Federal system for rest of Ukraine with federal level neutrality guarantee and very weak federal government

3. Demilitarized zone near the Donetsk/Lugansk/Crimea/Mariupol borders

They'll need to take Mykolaiv, Odesa and finish off the encircled forces in the east to get the leverage to enforce these conditions. In exchange Ukraine is not crippled, just hurt with an unequal treaty.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
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ansy1968 said:
@Overbom bro what will happen to Western Ukraine aka the Bandera Land?
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Most probably neutral.
Alignment will most probably depend on what extend the West will give sanctions relief to Russia. Anyway, its too early to make such predictions.

ansy1968 said:
It was once a part of Polish confederation? will Poland absorb it?
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No

ansy1968 said:
and Putin had no interest in occupying it.
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Yep. I don't think that Putin wants to rule over an extremely hostile population
 
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Anlsvrthng

Captain
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One interesting point about the Russian natural gas export.

Ukraine importing around 10 billion cuM/year, Ukriane consumption peaked around 100 billion/year.
Production is around 20 billion/year.

Russian export is around 160 billion / year.

So , ukraine coudl mop up more than half of the Russian export to the EU, Belorus could use up other parts, means there will be limited ammount of gas for export.

After the new Chinese pipeline there will be only a fraction of gas available to export to the EU.
 
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