Just a few more thoughts.
Ukrainian War Developments
- Thread starter james smith esq
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Apparently it has been a MANPADS, in the video the former president of Ukraine congratulates the alleged soldier who has shot down the SU-30, and his hand system.... Many shortcomings are being seen in Russian air tactics
Take this with a grain of salt. Allegedly a soldier that shot down the Su-30 with an Igla MANPADS:
The Su-30SM was allegedly shot down in Mykolaiv Region. Which is nowhere near Kiev where Poroshenko claims to be.
So uh... excuse me if I don't believe his chocolatey propaganda.
Just for reference Mykolaiv is in the south near the Black Sea and is farther away from Kiev than Kiev is from Belarussian border.
So uh... excuse me if I don't believe his chocolatey propaganda.
Just for reference Mykolaiv is in the south near the Black Sea and is farther away from Kiev than Kiev is from Belarussian border.
Zelensky had been insisting almost till the last day that the Russian invasion threat is not realistic and was overblown by the US. The majority of the Ukrainian people probably accepted it as true.
Those people likely live in besieged cities: even if Ukraine has stockpiles, supplying them to besieged citizens is impossible. Russia should open humanitarian corridors and give those people a week or two to evacuate before launching assaults on the cities.
I wonder how many is due to mobile AA like BUK, how many due to manpad? I've always thought manpad is useless against fast jet even when they're at low altitude. I mean sure manpad missile has the kinetic to intercept a subsonic low flying target, but the window of opportunity so short and engagement envelope so small....
One thing is for sure Ukrainian has to rely on NATO intel/C&C as all of their early warning radar are gone, the Russian can't seems to do anything about
Supersonic jets in CAS missions have to fly slowly to avoid overshooting or missing the target.
And clear evidence is always given if you would look properly. But as it seems you didn't even checked their bio ... Oryx has a Dutch and not a Turkish analyst behind.
Most helicopters that the Ukrainians have downed have been downed exclusively by MANPADs; perhaps this can be said for the few Su25s lost as-well; however as you’ve said MANPADs are almost completely useless against fast moving jet aircraft, especially at high altitudes although it isn’t impossible for successful MANPAD usage against combat jets if very specific conditions exist.
I reckon that any combat jet losses can be attributed to mobile SAM systems; the same can be said for any missile interceptions by the Ukrainian military; while helicopter and attack jet losses can be attributed to MANPADs.
Unlike China, it seems Russia has not focused on developing airborne EW assets. And, IMO, I doubt that they will “learn” anything from this conflict that will alter their decision-making. If Israel has long since learned the many lessons of their wars against Arab countries using Russian weapons and doctrines and Russia hasn’t, what’s to say that they ever will? Many folks have been complementing Russia’s ground war strategy and observing that they’ve used the same tactics since the Napoleonic Wars. Well, history is all nice and good, but warfare has evolved since then, and, if Russia’s aerial warfare strategies and tactics haven’t evolved since their first air war, they will, certainly, suffer ineffective sorties and unnecessary losses.
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