Ukrainian War Developments

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meckhardt98

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Russian Su30-SM shot down by Ukrainian Air-defenses; Mykolaiv Region; unlike previous shoot downs we have video footage of the pilot being captured by Ukrainian forces shortly after the downing of the aircraft.

Pilot is wearing VKK-15K High Altitude Flight Suit; Typical of Su-30/35 combat pilots.

 

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james smith esq

Senior Member
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Holy shit, Russians hit the jackpot with this load.
If this is accurate, it illustrates that the Ukrainian army really wasn’t prepared to act.

I find it quite perplexing that Ukrainian citizens are, now, saying that they’ve run out of food and water when I, who live 5000 miles away, have been stockpiling since this thing started to look serious???
 

KYli

Brigadier
In the end of the day, the West MSM could only use human rights violation to contrast the difference of what NATO did to Yugoslavia and what Russia is going to do with Ukraine. Underlying message, we are the good guys.
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meckhardt98

Junior Member
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For the most part shot down aircraft appear to be different airframes; evidenced by different tail numbers and camouflage patterns and/or terrain near the wreck site. However it’s hard to tell the difference of aircraft that seemingly have no surviving identifying features; which could be recycled photos of RuAF aircraft or Ukrainian aircraft.

I definitely believe that on social media; Twitter especially; that because of the sleuth of information being putting out it’s easy for people to be misinformed and misguided into believing footage of losses already posted may be new losses.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
You mean the USA CAS jets and helicopters bombing from 5-10 km height ?

It is a suprising development, I wasn't avare of an attack helicopter could operate efficiently from that altitude
What evidence is there of this?

I think so. The Su-30 and Su-34 are definitely new. A video of one Mi-24/35 shot down by MANPADS was published today. Another destroyed Mi-24/35 was photographed and that looks unique as well. At least one of the Su-25 looked new to me. I haven't studied the others yet.

The RuAF is clearly intensifying its operational tempo, but are they running low on smart munitions and forced to fly low? One of the aircraft shot down near Chernihiv carried unguided FAB-500 bombs.

How were the Su-30 and Su-34 shot down? If it was MANPADS, that's really embarrassing.
There was a video of apparently the Su-30 coming down today but it's already been hit so can't say at what height. Maybe they're having problems with Su-25 numbers?

Unless the Americans are giving them something bigger than a stinger that we don't know about.
 

Zichan

Junior Member
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Oryx is a Turkish propaganda Account. They inflate a lot . I would doubt any numbers that comes from their side unless backed up by clear evidence.
They post photographic evidence for every single lost piece of equipment on both sides. Feel free to survey and verify it. So far I think I've seen less than a handful of units they might have gotten wrong (Su-30 allegedly destroyed on the Russian airfield and the fuel train in Crimea)

While the site seems to have content in Turkish and Japanese, I wasn't aware that it is a Turkish propaganda account site? What is your evidence for this? The two main authors appear to be Dutch based on their names. The main author has a Dutch name and a Jewish surname. The other guy has a Dutch name and a Turkish surname. They published a book on the North Korean armed forces - why would Turkey finance this?
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
It seems non-guided bombs are obsolete in modern warfare outside a few niche cases. Russia shouldn't have been losing this many modern aircraft to shoulder launched missiles.
I think the main issue is RuAF ground attack aircraft sensors are not good enough. They are also increasingly needing to search for small targets like individual soldiers in cluttered areas like inside of cities instead of vehicles and troop formations in the open. Su-34M is supposed to have better sensors and they are working on targeting pods for Su-57. Those will be tested in Syria.
But the main deal to improve their situation in this part of the conflict, I think, would be to have combat drones. And Russia still lacks these in numbers.

You also cannot compare this with conflicts the US was involved in, like Iraq, a place which had been under sanctions for a decade.

I think so. The Su-30 and Su-34 are definitely new. A video of one Mi-24/35 shot down by MANPADS was published today. Another destroyed Mi-24/35 was photographed and that looks unique as well. At least one of the Su-25 looked new to me. I haven't studied the others yet.
Mi-24/35 are Soviet era aircraft designs. They made countermeasure upgrades to them during and after Afghan war but these are not as good against MANPADS are more recent Mi-28. Mi-28 was explicitly designed to reduce IR signature. The Su-25 has only had minor upgrades made to it adding GPS/Stellar navigation and little else. The design predates the Aghan war. Most Su-25 in RuAF do not even have those upgrades.

The RuAF is clearly intensifying its operational tempo, but are they running low on smart munitions and forced to fly low? One of the aircraft shot down near Chernihiv carried unguided FAB-500 bombs.
I think the problem is a combination of bad aircraft sensors and lack of smart weapons yes. But this campaign is just too large to use smart weapons like that even if the Russians had them. Not cost effective at all. The Russians do have helicopter systems with laser guided rockets which are really cheap but these are still not in mass production.

How were the Su-30 and Su-34 shot down? If it was MANPADS, that's really embarrassing.
I doubt it. Probably an Osa or something like that. The Osa can track a target without radar and then fire a missile at it.
 

meckhardt98

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Ukrainians are still operating a small force of BUK missile systems; it’s possible that a MANPAD was used if the aircraft was flying at low altitude however it’s highly unlikely given the Su30-SM would not likely be used at an altitude sufficient enough.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
MANPADS are more effective against helicopters than fighters because of vehicle speed. It is as simple as that.
You are correct that it could also be a Buk. They could be waiting with radar off and only enable radar when aircraft passes close to it. Then move around.
 

meckhardt98

Junior Member
Registered Member
Orlan-10 UAV shot down by Ukrainian forces.

It seems that the Russians are starting to use more drones with there being reports of UAV across several flash points over the past couple of days.

The Orlan-10 in particular is used for artillery spotting and reconnaissance.
 

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