My thoughts on the Kazakhstan riots
Good analysis!
Among the many factors, I believe the GEOGRAPHICAL one, the LOCATION of Kazakhstan in Central Asia, mainly between two major powers: Russia and China, is the main determinant why a Ukraine Scenario will not succeed there! Unlike Ukraine, no NATO element shares the land border with Kazakhstan. Russia is able to safeguard the Caspian Sea if necessary.
Also the Ukraine case taught Russia a very hard lesson, that if Russia is sitting idly when the stage in ex-USSR is rolling, later it will need to deal with the consequence at heavy price... thus never again let another Maidan Plot prevail in Russian sphere of influence, this time at its southern flank.
And in today's world, I don't think playing nice, be tame is any good move... as we're witnessing major powers like Russia and China are becoming more assertive in defending their backyards to not fall into hostile powers than in the past. Of course there are many other subtle elements at play... but I am quite sure this riot will fail and it will be over soon. They cannot even succeed in much weaker Venezuela with unfortunate geographical location.
. China just keeps growing its tech and economy to the top of the world. No fancy names... unless one considers the "Xth 5 Year Plan" as a fancy name... just boring names, oftentimes no names, and boring old world-beating growth.
