China's SCS Strategy Thread

Pendemic

New Member
Registered Member
IMO, China will not be able to hold Taiwan for long, even she takes it. It was colonized by mostly Fujianese & then lost to mainland rebels, Dutch, & Japanese before the KMT fled there.
Historically, & in the long run, attackers from the West & South always lost all wars: Japan was unsuccessfully invaded twice by the Mongols; Korea was invaded by Japan/US, but China came from the North & retook all/1/2 of it, respectively. The Mongols took C/S Asia, China, ME, & Russia; US lost in Canada in 1812 but took 1/2 of Mexico, Hawaii, Philippines, Guam, finally defeating & occupying Japan in 1945.
China will have more luck taking underpopulated SE Asia & later Australia.
Your statement on SE Asia is completely untrue. I did a mental calculation and figured that the inhabitants of ASEAN total about 650 million, which is twice that of USA and nearly half of China. As an economic bloc, its GDP would outstrip South America, India or Africa. Underpopulated is not how anyone should describe South East Asia.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
it's not HK to be pacified so quickly, but a hot potato that will smolder & burn China for a long time.
It burned before; now it burns less by the day and China's grip strengthens with every case and event. It is a perfect example of China holding a territory despite any initial unhappiness.
Given old rivalries with Japan, India, the UK, & France, other SE Asians won't be alone standing up to mainland Chinese.
It's not relevent nor is it correct. Those countries can do nothing to help anyone against China and the SEA nations don't want to pick a fight with China anyway.
Tibet & Sinkyang (SUAR) r being flooded by Hans for decades, but still a security challenge.
Far less terrorism there than all the mass shootings in the US. Are they the least secure places in China? Yes, but they are far from being a security challenge otherwise every American state can be called an emergency security challenge due to the domestic violence there.
The main reason isn't the weather, but geography & natural resources that favor those who occupy the high ground.
Kamikaze is the weather. And of course defensive positions have an advantage over any offensive force, but it is far from enough to overcome an overwhelming offensive force. Look at all the cases in history where one force (especially a much larger one) invaded another and your point will be invalidated.
Russia been invaded from the West several times, but she still won.
Russia is the largest country in the world known for harsh climate. There is no similarity to the ROC.
The same with Turks & Persians to the South. The Japanese took Sakhalin, Manchuria & Philippines, but were kicked out by the USSR & USA. They were lucky not to loose Hokkaido & N. Honshu. OTH, the British Isles were colonized by Anglo-Saxons but never conquered after 1066 Norman invasion; the Brits knew that a unified Europe would crash them, hence their "balance of power" diplomacy & numerous mil. interventions on the Continent.
What a random rant. Do you really mean to waste my time by asking me to post all the instances in history where someone was invaded successfully and kept by the invading force? Your cherry picking is too obvious and useless for true discussion much less relevent to analysis.
A big war over Taiwan may result in break up of China.
In the dreams and imaginations of those who understand nothing about China, only. The world will break up and mankind will fall before China gives up Taiwan. Meanwhile, you can keep deluding yourself that Chinese people do not think like me.
 

Tsavo Lion

Junior Member
Registered Member
It burned before; now it burns less by the day and China's grip strengthens with every case and event. It is a perfect example of China holding a territory despite any initial unhappiness.
does China have a ready space for Ms of restless Taiwanese to resettle? if so, where to?
It's not relevent nor is it correct. Those countries can do nothing to help anyone against China and the SEA nations don't want to pick a fight with China anyway.
they'll be used as proxies, even if only as sites to send mil. assets & spies from elsewhere, just like Japan, SK & Philippines were in the Cold War.
Far less terrorism there than all the mass shootings in the US. Are they the least secure places in China? Yes, but they are far from being a security challenge otherwise every American state can be called an emergency security challenge due to the domestic violence there.
PRC held Taiwan will add a lot more to their security problems.
Look at all the cases in history where one force (especially a much larger one) invaded another and your point will be invalidated.
the Mongols, Tartars, & Turks had a lot less forces than those they conquered, so my point has more validity.
Russia is the largest country in the world known for harsh climate. There is no similarity to the ROC.
The climate on Mongolia was even harsher, & they successfully campaigned in E. Europe during winters; the Russian defenders had to deal with their climate at the same time as the invaders. Neither Mongols nor Russians r supermen. Both lost at sea to Japan (Russia in 1905); Kublai Khan also lost in Vietnam & Burma. Mongol rule in warm India also didn't last long. In fact, Mongolian skins & furs kept the Soviet soldiers warm in WW2.
What a random rant. Do you really mean to waste my time by asking me to post all the instances in history where someone was invaded successfully and kept by the invading force?
all of the past empires didn't last more than a few hundred years; recall what happened to Greeks, Romans, Arabs & Turks in Europe & the ME. Once Taiwan is taken, all the others in the W/S Pacific will close ranks & start creating more problems for China.
In the dreams and imaginations of those who understand nothing about China, only. The world will break up and mankind will fall before China gives up Taiwan.
but the others perceive that China won't stop with Taiwan- to protect it & her SC Sea claims, Okinawa, the Philippines, Vietnam, & Indonesia will become targets for further expansionism.
Your statement on SE Asia is completely untrue. I did a mental calculation and figured that the inhabitants of ASEAN total about 650 million, which is twice that of USA and nearly half of China. As an economic bloc, its GDP would outstrip South America, India or Africa. Underpopulated is not how anyone should describe South East Asia.
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However, there r Ms of ethnic Chinese; the Lao & Thais originated in S. China, & they peacefully coexisted with them for millennia.
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. Besides,
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in PRC, & they can be sent to wars to take Indonesia & Australia.
The islands
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&
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have ~42M population, & China can bypass Java to come on Australia's doorstep.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
does China have a ready space for Ms of restless Taiwanese to resettle? if so, where to?
Anywhere in China. It's a big place, lots of new cities being built; that's actually China's specialty. But they will be scattered; they will not need to be concentrated. A little place out of every city works just fine.

But that's besides the point. There is no need to relocate all of them. China will rule them and bring them to heel right on Taiwan just like we do it in Hong Kong. Riots quelled, traitors arrested, anti-China establishments punished and depressed; it's getting better every day.
they'll be used as proxies, even if only as sites to send mil. assets & spies from elsewhere, just like Japan, SK & Philippines were in the Cold War.
Like I said, they can do nothing to hurt China. Cockroaches and mosquitos are annoying but they don't actually challenge you in your house.
PRC held Taiwan will add a lot more to their security problems.\
PRC's "security problems" are very low compared to the unrest in the US. Besides, if China was afraid of a few problems, we would never challenge the US.
the Mongols, Tartars, & Turks had a lot less forces than those they conquered, so my point has more vlidity.
No, your point has no validity. There are for more instances where numerically superior forces overtook and kept smaller territories. Your examples are all warrioristic cultures and Taiwan is actually the opposite of one. They constantly beg others to help them and even vote that they are unwilling to fight. You cannot spin these rare historic instances to mean that smaller forces have an advantage over larger forces; the proposition is stupid and the supporting points irrelevent.
The climate on Mongolia was even harsher, & they successfully campaigned in E. Europe during winters;
Nowhere is harsher than Russia and by what you said, it means that the Mongolians went from a harsher climate to an easier one to conquer it, which is the opposite of someone invading Russia.
the Russian defenders had to deal with their climate at the same time as the invaders.
Invading force needs logistics. Defensive force is acclimated and already has logistics from living there.
Neither Mongols nor Russians r supermen. Both lost at sea to Japan (Russia in 1905); Kublai Khan also lost in Vietnam & Burma. Mongol rule in warm India also didn't last long. In fact, Mongolian skins & furs kept the Soviet soldiers warm in WW2.
And this has nothing to do with China or modern combat. Like I said, book fools rant off history but cannot apply it.
all of the past empires didn't last more than a few hundred years; recall what happened to Greeks, Romans, Arabs & Turks in Europe & the ME.
That's why America is about to fall to China.
Once Taiwan is taken, all the others in the W/S Pacific will close ranks & start creating more problems for China.
In your imagination. Once Taiwan is taken, China's power in the region will be even more solid and it will be harder and with higher costs for them to create problems for China. And none of these countries care to create problems for themselves over Taiwan.
but the others perceive that China won't stop with Taiwan- to protect it & her SC Sea claims, Okinawa, the Philippines, Vietnam, & Indonesia will become targets for further expansionism.
No, it is abundantly clear to the world that Taiwan is a special issue to China. Besides, China is already expanding its claims and holdings in the SCS. Taiwan has nothing to do with it. Whatever they can put together against China now, it's all they've got. But China's getting more faster.
 
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Insignius

Junior Member
There's no reason to assume that China would let historical precedences play out once it takes back Taiwan. Who cares about what the Qing dynasty or Ming dynasty did? When it comes to the CCP, they will do large scaled social engineering and even geo engineering to change the facts on the ground, in insuring that even in a thousand years and regardless of ruling dynasty, Taiwan will remain with China forever.

I would even believe that China would fill the entire Taiwan strait with rubble and earthwork to permanently connect it with the Chinese mainland (in fact, there are already proposals for a highway bridge connection), while enacting large scale population swaps of 70% Taiwanese population to China's interior provinces while settling loyal mainlanders on Taiwan. No matter what, China and the CCP will ensure that history and geography will never have any effects on Taiwan being a part of China anymore.

This is something China is willing to use nukes over, so the West needs to be ready to collectively die for Taiwan if they want to deny China her prize.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
As I was saying:

So? We all know the mighty "Great" Britain has sent her biggest warship ever to the SCS. So what's the point in showing this chest-thumping video of her mighty ship, Lizzy?

Your statement on SE Asia is completely untrue. I did a mental calculation and figured that the inhabitants of ASEAN total about 650 million, which is twice that of USA and nearly half of China. As an economic bloc, its GDP would outstrip South America, India or Africa. Underpopulated is not how anyone should describe South East Asia.

He doesn't know what he's talking about. He sound like a young juvenile.
 

Tsavo Lion

Junior Member
Registered Member
Anywhere in China. It's a big place, lots of new cities being built; that's actually China's specialty. But they will be scattered; they will not need to be concentrated. A little place out of every city works just fine.
But that's besides the point. There is no need to relocate all of them. China will rule them and bring them to heel right on Taiwan just like we do it in Hong Kong. Riots quelled, traitors arrested, anti-China establishments punished and depressed; it's getting better every day.
it will take forever to pacify, as there r native non-Han Taiwanese that will want to become independent again. China has land borders on & controlled/colonized Korea for a few hundred & Vietnam for a 1K years, yet they both became independent.
Like I said, they can do nothing to hurt China. Cockroaches and mosquitos are annoying but they don't actually challenge you in your house.
with many of them, chemicals must be used, & ur house will stink for a long time afterwards.
No, your point has no validity. There are for more instances where numerically superior forces overtook and kept smaller territories. Your examples are all warrioristic cultures and Taiwan is actually the opposite of one. They constantly beg others to help them and even vote that they are unwilling to fight.
there r bigger players' interests involved, so China may bite more than she can chew & swallow with Taiwan. All of NATO, India, Australia, & Japan r joining keep the status quo, just like when the UN prevented the ROK falling to NK & PRC. Before that, Japan (which by then lost Manchuria & was ready to surrender) was nuked twice to stop the USSR from landing on Hokkaido, contrary to what American propaganda says.
Nowhere is harsher than Russia and by what you said, it means that the Mongolians went from a harsher climate to an easier one to conquer it, which is the opposite of someone invading Russia.
their invasion from East succeeded, while all others from other directions failed.
Invading force needs logistics. Defensive force is acclimated and already has logistics from living there.
true, but the USSR didn't have good logistics, with only Moscow as a focal point. Still, they moved their war production East, were climate is worse, built more roads, & counterattacked, retaking all of E. Europe.
And this has nothing to do with China or modern combat. Like I said, book fools rant off history but cannot apply it.
I'm not more foolish than any1 else here, so pl. be nice or be careful.
In your imagination. Once Taiwan is taken, China's power in the region will be even more solid and it will be harder and with higher costs for them to create problems for China. And none of these countries care to create problems for themselves over Taiwan.
time will tell! how many times China was fragmented with no central authority? who can guarantee it won't split again?
No, it is abundantly clear to the world that Taiwan is a special issue to China. Besides, China is already expanding its claims and holdings in the SCS. Taiwan has nothing to do with it. Whatever they can put together against China now, it's all they've got. But China's getting more faster.
by the same token, Taiwan & the SC Sea r special issues to Japan & US.
Wait till Japan, Taiwan & Australia get their own nukes. all of them have submarines, build more, & could carry them, just like Israeli subs do near Iran.
I would even believe that China would fill the entire Taiwan strait with rubble and earthwork to permanently connect it with the Chinese mainland..
it'll take a very long time to do it; even as peninsula, it won't be too hard to retake.
 
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Insignius

Junior Member
Retake by who? And what is there to retake if the Taiwanese population gets deported? Never underestimate the CCP and their willingness to break with historical precedences or even geographic facts - three gorges dam, the extensive infrastructure development in China, Tibet railway etc should tell you the lengths China will go to never be subject to the whims of nature and geography ever again.
 

nugroho

Junior Member
IMO, China will not be able to hold Taiwan for long, even she takes it. It was colonized by mostly Fujianese & then lost to mainland rebels, Dutch, & Japanese before the KMT fled there.
Historically, & in the long run, attackers from the West & South always lost all wars: Japan was unsuccessfully invaded twice by the Mongols; Korea was invaded by Japan/US, but China came from the North & retook all/1/2 of it, respectively. The Mongols took C/S Asia, China, ME, & Russia; US lost in Canada in 1812 but took 1/2 of Mexico, Hawaii, Philippines, Guam, finally defeating & occupying Japan in 1945.
China will have more luck taking underpopulated SE Asia & later Australia.
Now tell me
1. The state of Qin in Warring State was at west or east?
2. Alexander The great invaded east or west?
3. Dutch colonize Indonesia was from east or west?
4. Islam went from Arab peninsula to Persia , was it went south or north?
Really laughing with your history
 
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