Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

[steel21]

i mean as u may know already im from taiwan and im currently studying in college. we have this mandatory "national defense class" where officers from the taiwanese military will teach us defense-related stuff, and even my teacher who is an officer at a air-defense radar regiment admitted that the taiwanese military is no match to the pla and that the taiwanese military can only at most drag out a pla offensive until the us military intervenes lol. he also says that the higher-ups are very clear about this so the most they can do is to conduct ocean and coastal defense to slow down the pla until us troops can arrive in taiwan to defend the island lol

I think the delay action will last around 1/2 day, with overall major combat actions easing by end of day 3.

From a unit morale stand point, if there is no definitive victory and all you can do is a delay action, then no one wants to be the last man to die for a delay action, pending a cavalry that may or may not materialize.

Let's say you do beat back China this time around, unless ROC+US+whoever is willing to go ashore, invade and execute a regime change, then the PLA will be back next year. Ain't no one got the stomach for that kind of fight.

Unless you guys are willing to fight it out like the IJA garrison on Okinawa in WWII.......

Im probably 20+ years older than you and have been in the uniform since my college years.

 

[tupolevtu144]

personally i think there is without doubt that there will be a small group of extremely determined civilians who are willing conduct guerilla warfare (such as FLG-influenced people and hardcore pan-green people) but for most people i honestly believe they will either surrender or flee the country if they can. as for the current doctrine i think the taiwanese military is just trying to up its deterrence so that the pla wont want to attack taiwan, similar to how the us can basically destroy the iranian military anytime now but they wont do so because it means a substantial number of us casualties. if the pla really wants to attack taiwan taiwan will of course stand no chance unless the us intervenes. however if the us intervenes then it's a whole new scenario altogether.

edit: may i ask where are you from u/steel21??

 

[steel21]

personally i think there is without doubt that there will be a small group of extremely determined civilians who will conduct guerilla warfare (such as FLG-influenced people) but for most people i honestly believe they will either surrender or flee the country if they can. as for the current doctrine i think the taiwanese military is just trying to up its deterrence so that the pla wont want to attack taiwan, similar to how the us can basically destroy the iranian military anytime now but they wont do so because it means a substantial number of us casualties. if the pla really wants to attack taiwan taiwan will of course stand no chance unless the us intervenes. however if the us intervenes then it's a whole new scenario altogether.

FLG types are not good insurgent material. You need a mix of HUMINT network and SOF operatives in order to sustain a successful insurgency. Looneys are only good for SVIED carriers.



Ideologues wind up battling each other for orthodoxly and wind up as terrorist groups. Read up on Abou Abderahmane Amine

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military anytime now but they wont do so because it means a substantial number of us casualties.

Yes, PLA is trying to minimize casualties, but it is Taiwanese and ROCA casualties they are trying to minimize at this point. They can certainly do saturation at standoff without much PLA casualties. I personally think PLA is trying to enable a rapid and stable transition by minimizing body count, ON ALL SIDE.

My estimate is that if this thing kick off between now and 2025, the KIA (include blue, red, and yellow) could be as low as 50, on all side.

Taiwanese military is NOT a deterrent, not even close.

Taiwan will of course stand no chance unless the us intervenes

Even with US intervention, Taiwan's chance of victory in that conflict is no more than 25%. And in the long term (5-10 years), the chances are 0%.

Taiwan better hope US does no intervene, because the result is EVEN WORSE than PLA occupation. US showing up will drag out the destruction and suffering, eventually returning back to square 1.





Welcome to the new Taipei:

 

[siegecrossbow]

Cruise missiles are a step in the right direction. If they are serious about mounting resistance they’d be buying more cruise missiles, naval mines, and SAMs/MANPADs instead of flashy items like M-1Abrams and Apache Helos.

 

[tupolevtu144]

FLG types are not good insurgent material. You need a mix of HUMINT network and SOF operatives in order to sustain a successful insurgency. Looneys are only good for SVIED carriers.

View attachment 73712

Ideologues wind up battling each other for orthodoxly and wind up as terrorist groups. Read up on Abou Abderahmane Amine

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Yes, PLA is trying to minimize casualties, but it is Taiwanese and ROCA casualties they are trying to minimize at this point. They can certainly do saturation at standoff without much PLA casualties. I personally think PLA is trying to enable a rapid and stable transition by minimizing body count, ON ALL SIDE.

My estimate is that if this thing kick off between now and 2025, the KIA (include blue, red, and yellow) could be as low as 50, on all side.

Taiwanese military is NOT a deterrent, not even close.

Even with US intervention, Taiwan's chance of victory in that conflict is no more than 25%. And in the long term (5-10 years), the chances are 0%.

Taiwan better hope US does no intervene, because the result is EVEN WORSE than PLA occupation. US showing up will drag out the destruction and suffering, eventually returning back to square 1.
View attachment 73710




Welcome to the new Taipei:
View attachment 73709

View attachment 73708

yea i feel this discussion is falling into chest-thumping nationalism now. to say that with us intervention taiwan wont have a chance at winning is absurd. unless the pla's deterrence is enough to deny the us from arriving at taiwan, it is to the us whether it will want to intervene or not, after all there's a reason the us military has bases all over the first island chain (and even korea). If the US intervenes i honestly think the pla wont be able to win the overall war, especially if you're talking about the near future since it will take at least a decade or two for the pla to be able to match the us. As for guerilla warfare there will be one whether you like it or not. although they are of a small percentage some people will be willing to wage a guerilla warfare. regarding pla casualties im just telling you that is what the current taiwanese military is aiming at - creating enough pla casualties (whether it will military, civil, economy etc.) in case of an attack so that the pla wont attack. It's called deterrence.

 

[supersnoop]

Those numbers seem a bit off.
Last time I saw the numbers were 2.4b for 100 HCDS launchers and 400 Harpoons.

I think this is the right kind of system to buy in terms of a defense perspective. However, I think as people mentioned, PLA has already developed the counter. J-16 covered by J-16D EW as well as Y-8EW to conduct SEAD and then take out these targets. Any surprise Y-8 recon types are the most commonly flown aircraft?

PAVE PAWs is very powerful, but the issue is being a fixed target makes it totally vulnerable to BM attack. If you move HAWK and Patriot batteries to protect it, then that leaves the AShM launchers vulnerable to aircraft attack. Avenger Stingers are useless against J-16.

I think the greatest hinderance to the military on Taiwan is money. There are so many aspects of defense to cover, and the reality is that you can't say "only invest in the air force" or "only invest in the navy", when the reality is that any modern conflict is a combined arms affair. Canada has many times the landmass and about equal population to Taiwan, but only an active air force half the size.

With this in mind, I think they should prioritize self-developed systems.
1. The obvious self-sufficiency angle
2. Minimize cost for buying US equipment

US Defense contractors are public companies, they are not helping you for free. Either make the US government pay for the equipment (like Israel does), or get the cheapest price possible

 

[steel21]

yea i feel this discussion is falling into chest-thumping nationalism now. to say that with us intervention taiwan wont have a chance at winning is absurd. unless the pla's deterrence is enough to deny the us from arriving at taiwan, it is to the us whether it will want to intervene or not, after all there's a reason the us military has bases all over the first island chain (and even korea). If the US intervenes i honestly think the pla wont be able to win the overall war, especially if you're talking about the near future. As for guerilla warfare there will be one whether you like it or not. although they are of a small percentage some people will be willing to wage a guerilla warfare. regarding pla casualties im just telling you that is what the current taiwanese military is aiming at - creating enough pla casualties (whether it will military, civil, economy etc.) in case of an attack so that the pla wont attack. It's called deterrence.

Look man, you believe what you believe. I'm just telling you as someone who has been in the war business for over 20 years, in and out of combat, in BDU, ACUs and now Multicam/OCP.

Not sure you guys know how grueling an insurgency is. And yes, part of insurgency is terrorism. You had better have the intestinal fortitude to put a power drill through some dude's forehead. That shit ain't COD Modern Warfare.

If the US intervenes i honestly think the pla wont be able to win the overall war,

Sound like you are intimately familiar with the US military then? Or perhaps military capability and or war gaming/simulation/TTX (Table Top Exercise)?

current taiwanese military is aiming at

What militaries aim for and what combatant commanders are expecting and planning for are 2 things.

Good luck. Carry on.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Those numbers seem a bit off.
Last time I saw the numbers were 2.4b for 100 HCDS launchers and 400 Harpoons.

I think this is the right kind of system to buy in terms of a defense perspective. However, I think as people mentioned, PLA has already developed the counter. J-16 covered by J-16D EW as well as Y-8EW to conduct SEAD and then take out these targets. Any surprise Y-8 recon types are the most commonly flown aircraft?

PAVE PAWs is very powerful, but the issue is being a fixed target makes it totally vulnerable to BM attack. If you move HAWK and Patriot batteries to protect it, then that leaves the AShM launchers vulnerable to aircraft attack. Avenger Stingers are useless against J-16.

I think the greatest hinderance to the military on Taiwan is money. There are so many aspects of defense to cover, and the reality is that you can't say "only invest in the air force" or "only invest in the navy", when the reality is that any modern conflict is a combined arms affair. Canada has many times the landmass and about equal population to Taiwan, but only an active air force half the size.

The greatest hindrance to the military in Taiwan is the loss of purpose. The goal of the ROC military is to retake the mainland, but the DPP has cut it off from its history and legacy. You can have world class military gear like the Saudis but if your army does not have a clear purpose or soul, you can still lose to inferiorly equipped opponents like the Houthis in Yemen. To make the matters worse, the PLA is neither inferiorly equipped nor does it lack a purpose.

 

[tupolevtu144]

Cruise missiles are a step in the right direction. If they are serious about mounting resistance they’d be buying more cruise missiles, naval mines, and SAMs/MANPADs instead of flashy items like M-1Abrams and Apache Helos.

To be honest there are also dissenting voices in Taiwan's military in whether taiwan should be buying such expensive hardware instead of investing into asymmetric capabilities. But in the end they still bought it after consideration, so i believe the taiwanese military do have a good reason in buying such hardware.
I'll also have to correct you that naval mines are also included in the tender. If you've seen my previous posts you'll see tht the taiwanese military is currently building a fleet of rapid mine-laying crafts. As for SAMs for some reason the taiwanese military has decided to settle with domestic TK-3 systems and land-based TC-2 missiles. However the taiwanese military is also currently planning to purchase a large stock of portable stinger missiles.

 

[siegecrossbow]

To be honest there are also dissenting voices in Taiwan's military in whether taiwan should be buying such expensive hardware instead of investing into asymmetric capabilities. But in the end they still bought it after consideration, so i believe the taiwanese military do have a good reason in buying such hardware.
I'll also have to correct you that naval mines are also included in the tender. If you've seen my previous posts you'll see tht the taiwanese military is currently building a fleet of rapid mine-laying crafts. As for SAMs for some reason the taiwanese military has decided to settle with domestic TK-3 systems and land-based TC-2 missiles. However the taiwanese military is also currently planning to purchase a large stock of portable stinger missiles.

I think I probably didn't make the point too clear in the original post. My opinion is that money spent on glitzy stuff like new tanks and attack helos should be diverted entirely to asymmetric capabilities and tactics/training exercises should change accordingly. Let's not fool ourselves here, the only reason that money is being spent on expensive hardware is political. A tank as heavy as the Abrams is not suited to maneuvering in Taiwan (mountains/ravines/sandy beaches/rice paddies and fruit fields). But it does help politicians score popularity points with the locals.