I'm running the numbers again and yeah, there's no way to stop the virus running its course in India unless there is a complete lockdown in India.
There's just not enough vaccine capacity available.
India produces about 100 million doses per month.
Then I can see the major countries producing approximately
China: 350 million doses per month
USA: 100 million doses per month
Europe: 100 million doses per month
The USA and Europe aren't really sharing despite India begging for vaccines.
And it's doubtful that Modi will go begging China for vaccines, despite China having much a lot more capacity.
Also note that China is literally seeing near zero cases on many days.
This has been the case for the past 6 months because China doesn't need a vaccine to contain COVID.
So if it's impossible for India to completely lockdown (due to starvation/poverty issues), then the virus will continue to run amok for at least the next 6 weeks, until it has infected most of the Indian population.
But that will inevitably create more variants which are more infectious or deadly.
And possibly capable of evading existing vaccines or immunity.
So it's imperative to stop these spreading across the world.
So I don't see any alternative except to completely quarantine India and the countries next to India which have open borders, namely Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Then we have to wait for the virus to run its course.
So the physical firebreak on land becomes Myanmar, China and Pakistan.
Myanmar and Pakistan have small enough populations that Chinese vaccine capacity can make a significant difference.
Nepal and Bangladesh should be doable for China as well.
But the key is to get additional capacity up and running in China.
There's another 160-240 million doses per month already on the way.
Everyone else in the world is slow and have decidedly unambitious production goals.
So with that extra Chinese capacity, everyone in Myanmar and Pakistan could get a first dose within 1 month.
Then a second dose in the 2nd month.
