AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Modi and the BJP are taking the heat for this debacle. They obviously have to change the narrative by blaming China for denying them supplies. It's the Trump tactic of denying it's all his fault.
Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)
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The article is dated August 29, 2017. Almost four years old, long before the pandemic. You try to fool us into thinking it's a recent topic ("once pandaemic is over"). It's very typical of BJP types and Modi worshippers to lie a lot (just as their models, the Nazis, lied a lot).
solarz
Brigadier
It has become a pattern. COVID-19 requires short term sacrifices in order to prevent a far greater disaster in the future. Governments that are not capable or willing to make those sacrifices inevitably reap the horrors of this disease.
India needs to be completely quarantined. Send in medical supplies as necessary, but keep the borders shut tight.
India needs to be completely quarantined. Send in medical supplies as necessary, but keep the borders shut tight.
I don't think India can afford another quarantine or lockdown. You may check some India subreddits. Most Indians live on daily wage and another lockdown mean hunger and death.
So India is in a tough spot. The only way is to see through the wave and hope that it doesn't take as much lives as the charts say. And vaccinations are not going to help instantly. I think many people here forget that vaccines don't work from the day 1.
It'll take 30 days for the vaccines to show its benefit. So India looks at atleast 2 months of the wave (that is if India vaccinates 40 to 50% of the population by May 31).
The idea that India can vaccine 50% of the nation by the end of may is simply impossible given the sheer difficulty they have right now even dealing with the current patient load and the limited amount of resources they have both in treatment, oxygen and vaccines. Who ever wanted to depopulate the world from overpopulation has picked the right nation to start off the culling given just how many boxes this ticks off and this frightens me as to just how much trouble the world is in given how this virus will spread given the sheer lack of competence by the Indian government. I get the feeling that this is what the west wants for China but unfortunately this ended up happening instead to the biggest ally in China’s backyard, which really shows how the times have begun to flow in China’s direction while hamstringing the west’s efforts in the western front for a good while
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solarz
Brigadier
I meant quarantining that country, as in don't let anyone leave India.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The other major weakness exposed by Covid is that all scientific data is backwards looking and time delayed by weeks at best. That means to get ahead of it, you need to be hyper vigilant and basically act before there are concrete danger signs, because by the time you get scientifically proven danger signs, it’s already far far too late.
This is why the west handled Covid so horribly, because their arts major leaders don’t understand basic science and data principles.
It is also why countries that have tried to fudge the figures and hide early Covid numbers ended up being completely overwhelmed, and the fact that China managed to get a handle on this is proof positive that China didn’t try to hide or twist the numbers and instead just got on with doing what needs to be done to stop it.
After SARS, China basically went to all the leading infectious diseases experts in the world and developed the ideal protocol for what to do to stop such an outbreak. Very specific triggers were set, such that as soon as they were met, you broke open the playbook and did exactly as instructed with no fucking about. Which is exactly what they did in Wuhan as soon as it was confirmed to be airborne, fatal and human-to-human transmissible.
The hard part was putting in place the logistics to allow cities with tens of millions of residents to lock down for weeks without creating a humanitarian catastrophe.
All the western BS reporting attributed Wigan’s lockdown success to all sorts of politically motivated bullshit when in fact that true reason why it worked in China and nowhere else is because China had plans in place to deal with keeping everyone in lockdown supplied with basic essentials so there would be zero need for anyone not on official business to be outside. That make it possible to enforce the lockdown since so few people were out and about that police could stop and check everyone had the right papers to say they were allowed out, which also meant they had the right training and monitoring to not spread the virus.
A lockdown in India is not possible because they had done none of the hard work to figure out the logistics. Just look at the horror show when they tried during the first wave.
That was over a year ago, and had they learnt any meaningful lessons they could have a functioning plan in place now. But instead they played political games with vaccine diplomacy trying to match China and now millions or more Indians will pay for that hubris and arrogance with their lives.
If Indian trolls think western coverage is not positive now, they have better pray to all their gods that this new super variant they have created isn’t resistant to existing vaccines. Because Indians and all south Asians will be treated as plague rats worse then even Chinese if this Indian variant resets global vaccination efforts and kills millions of westerns globally.
You don't need to check India subreddits.
There is enough mainstream journalism about how the previous Indian lockdown completely screwed over most Indians, who are employed informally on daily wages.
It's impossible for India to get to 40% of the population vaccinated in 30 days time,
India only produces 100 million doses per month, which works out as 4% of the population fully vaccinated per month.
I'm running the numbers again and yeah, there's no way to stop the virus running its course in India unless there is a complete lockdown in India.
There's just not enough vaccine capacity available.
India produces about 100 million doses per month.
Then I can see the major countries producing approximately
China: 350 million doses per month
USA: 100 million doses per month
Europe: 100 million doses per month
The USA and Europe aren't really sharing despite India begging for vaccines.
And it's doubtful that Modi will go begging China for vaccines, despite China having much a lot more capacity.
Also note that China is literally seeing near zero cases on many days.
This has been the case for the past 6 months because China doesn't need a vaccine to contain COVID.
So if it's impossible for India to completely lockdown (due to starvation/poverty issues), then the virus will continue to run amok for at least the next 6 weeks, until it has infected most of the Indian population.
But that will inevitably create more variants which are more infectious or deadly.
And possibly capable of evading existing vaccines or immunity.
So it's imperative to stop these spreading across the world.
So I don't see any alternative except to completely quarantine India and the countries next to India which have open borders, namely Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Then we have to wait for the virus to run its course.
So the physical firebreak on land becomes Myanmar, China and Pakistan.
Myanmar and Pakistan have small enough populations that Chinese vaccine capacity can make a significant difference.
Nepal and Bangladesh should be doable for China as well.
But the key is to get additional capacity up and running in China.
There's another 160-240 million doses per month already on the way.
Everyone else in the world is slow and have decidedly unambitious production goals.
So with that extra Chinese capacity, everyone in Myanmar and Pakistan could get a first dose within 1 month.
Then a second dose in the 2nd month.