China demographics thread.

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
I don't question that France has good policies to support mothers and families with children. What I question is whether those policies are responsible for France's comparatively high fertility rate. And I am not talking about the direct increase from immigration, which is fairly marginal these days*, but rather the fact that immigrants, being generally of lower socioeconomic status than the majority of the population, will themselves tend to have higher fertility rates than the general population, driving up the overall fertility rate of the country.

* Which I suspect is the the major reason why UN WPP projections are for the UK's population to continue to increase while that of France flatlines.
Immigrants have higher fertility but only the first generation and maybe second. Later it tapers off and settles around that of the host population.

There are no other rational reasons.
Or one must bring up Wines, Paris and Cheese to explain the fertility, otherwise.

The US host population, for example, has seen sustained decrease in fertility. Immigrants keep the fertility high but the demographic shift brought by immigrants here go beyond age. It is racial, linguistic and cultural. Adopting US style immigration won't be compatible with China.
 

sinophilia

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel has the highest fertility rate in the Western World. It’s TFR is rising every year and has now reached 3.1 (!!)

These aren’t even Arab births, Jewish TFR is currently 3.1 same as the national average. Unbelievable. Even when you separate out the Haredi Jews the secular Jews still have TFR approaching 3.0!

The reason is they changed their culture in the last few decades, a top-down policy making people look down on those women that don’t have kids as being of lower status.

They shamed their women to have kids and then they doubled down by having the most pro-natalist policies in the world.

Jews by nature are not extremely fecund or something. Jews in America for example have a TFR significantly below average.

China can learn a lot from those approaches. Hell Israel is in even worse position than China, with much higher population density and less energy resources per capita.
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member
Immigrants have higher fertility but only the first generation and maybe second. Later it tapers off and settles around that of the host population.

There are no other rational reasons.
Or one must bring up Wines, Paris and Cheese to explain the fertility, otherwise.

The US host population, for example, has seen sustained decrease in fertility. Immigrants keep the fertility high but the demographic shift brought by immigrants here go beyond age. It is racial, linguistic and cultural. Adopting US style immigration won't be compatible with China.
The majority white American population is declining. They keep their (working) population growing through mass immigration. This is a gradual population replacement to keep themselves economic and geopolitical competitive. They are colonial European settlement with very different outlook towards racial roots.

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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
The majority white American population is declining. They keep their (working) population growing through mass immigration. This is a gradual population replacement to keep themselves economic and geopolitical competitive. They are colonial European settlement with very different outlook towards racial roots.

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exactly. It can't be adopted for a Civilization nation state like China which also has strong leanings towards Homogenous society.

@sinophilia brought up the case of Israel, which is a good example. But the fertility rate for West Bank is higher than Israeli fertility rate. I'm doubtful if Israeli hike in fertility is purely due to government policies. There are ideological, cultural undercurrents at play here. Most of the Levant, North Africa and Arab world also have high fertility rates. Definitely ideo cultural forces and Israel is no different.


China can't create a cultural force out of thin air for fertility hike. What it can do is communicate to the chinese in the language they like } Prosperity and money. Somehow, bearing more children ought to make financial sense. It is very much possible in a boom economy ( Just like US which had a population boom that coincided with the economic boom immediately after WW2) but since China doesn't have a boom economy right now, it can create an artificial mirage of boom by offering "Land per kid" policy where more kids mean more discounts to land purchases/ tax cuts.

I don't know if it is feasible but it should be. The next phase of Chinese development ought to be the migration of Apartment dwelling chinese to suburbs (like that of US). I believe Apartments are a psychological inhibition factor that points to space constraint which forces families to consider less Children. If Chinese people are provided individual houses just like in the US, they will have this psychological constraint removed.

China must explore setting up suburbs in the midland region of the country .
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Women are women, motivated by biological instinct
Reducing women to their biology isn't going to convince them to have children, and if you express views like that in public you're just going to alienate them and further convice them that men are selfish creatures who just see them as baby-producing factories.

Look at the high turnover in high pressure jobs at places like Goldman Sachs or in other fields like law and medicine, where females drop out of the workforce to become wives and mothers and only re-enter once the children are grown up. And in many cases, these females tend not to return to the workforce if they don't have to.
Goldman Sachs has a high turnover because their working conditions are terrible and people burn out. The few people I know who worked there were miserable whether they were men or women. As for law and medicine, women choose to have children and, unsurprisingly, have no choice but to "drop out" to look after them in their immediate infancy because men are historically reluctant to take time off.

That said, increasingly women do return to work after childbirth, especially if they're earning a lot more than the cost of childcare.
In my experience it tends to be women trying to get out of doing the hard yards and basically waiting around to get married.
In my experience women in work aim to have careers and even if when young they have the idea that they'll marry a super-rich person that will look after them, when their reality is shattered they recognise they need to work to keep bread on the table. Indeed, what I have found is that the more chill and less macho the office, the more likely it is that women will want to seek promotions.
I shit you not, females of the anglosphere don't even parent anymore. I once dated a New York girl from the New England area and she'd been medicated since primary school.
1. One woman does not represent the female population of New York.
2. The female population of New York does not represent the USA.
3. The USA does not represent the English speaking/NA/European world.

I know a total of zero people, male or female, who were medicated since school.

The problem is that you're projecting western ideals into how a woman should behave, as opposed to how women do behave.
Females are by nature hypergamous- they want to marry the top high earning achievers, the alpha males; in China, this translates to
高富帅 "GaoFuShuai": Tall, rich and handsome.
I'm not telling you how women should behave, I'm telling you how the modern world works. It doesn't matter what some girls may think they want, because when they realise that there aren't enough uber-rich men to look after them they have no choice but to start grafting.

There is evidence that the gender gap in China has made the current generation of Chinese women more picky because they can afford to be. However, that doesn't account for the low birth rate because it's calculated per woman rather than head of population.

Putting aside issues relating to having a career, the other biggest issue is the CCP's population control policies. You can't spend decades drilling propaganda into girls and women that it's their duty not to have more than one child, backed up by fines and in some cases forced abortions, and then suddenly expect them to have two children because the cap has been lifted. It may take one or even two generations to remove the impact of the one child policy.

The solution is to encourage younger family formation, where the eggs are most healthy and most plentiful; female high school graduates should be encouraged to become mothers first before thinking about an education- for these females, this necessarily means not going into uni until they're about 33-35 as opposed to the current situation of shengnu, leftover females who are 33-35, university educated and don't even have kids, let alone married!
First, China is still a conservative society in terms of relationships. Relatively few young people have long-term, stable relationships by the time they decide whether they go to university or not. Encouraging relative strangers, who have no concept of what a healthy relationship is or how to assess if their planned partner is good for them or not, to marry is going to end in more divorces and cases of domestic abuse.

Second, these young men about to head off to university are not going to be in a position to support anyone, and given that university accommodation is single you're not going to be building lasting relationships if these couples are kept apart during the academic year.

Third, there's no obvious incentive to any Chinese girl to defer going to university for the best part of two decades just because people say she may struggle to have children.

There is, absolutely,
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, and the central government should make it mandatory to have useful sex-ed classes from the age of 11 onwards on pain of local officials having future promotions blocked if they don't put them in place. Girls do need to understand about how their fertility can drop off the edge of a cliff. But that's about informed choices.

The Chinese economy is also built on women being able to work. The idea that you can return to this old-fashioned China where women stay at home rearing children whilst the men go off to work is a fantasy. There are just not enough well-paid jobs where one parent can earn enough to support a two-child family, a non-working spouse, potentially grandparents and put aside money for the future. China needs women to be working.

If you want to address the poor demographic situation in China, you need to:

1. Improve support for mothers who want to work via better paid maternity leave;
2. Improve child support for those on low and middle incomes;
3. Encourage Chinese men to take time off to help look after their children, such as via shared leave/parternity leave;
4. Have tighter enforcement on discrimination based on gender/abuse of women;
5. Have more public education to reduce misogyny and treat people with respect;
6. Improve sex-ed classes; and
7. Raise the retirement age to keep people in work and reduce the drain on pensions whilst policies to deal with demographics are brought in.
 
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steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Israel has the highest fertility rate in the Western World. It’s TFR is rising every year and has now reached 3.1 (!!)

These aren’t even Arab births, Jewish TFR is currently 3.1 same as the national average. Unbelievable. Even when you separate out the Haredi Jews the secular Jews still have TFR approaching 3.0!

The reason is they changed their culture in the last few decades, a top-down policy making people look down on those women that don’t have kids as being of lower status.

They shamed their women to have kids and then they doubled down by having the most pro-natalist policies in the world.

Jews by nature are not extremely fecund or something. Jews in America for example have a TFR significantly below average.

China can learn a lot from those approaches. Hell Israel is in even worse position than China, with much higher population density and less energy resources per capita.
It's mostly this guys.
Israel has the highest fertility rate in the Western World. It’s TFR is rising every year and has now reached 3.1 (!!)

These aren’t even Arab births, Jewish TFR is currently 3.1 same as the national average. Unbelievable. Even when you separate out the Haredi Jews the secular Jews still have TFR approaching 3.0!

The reason is they changed their culture in the last few decades, a top-down policy making people look down on those women that don’t have kids as being of lower status.

They shamed their women to have kids and then they doubled down by having the most pro-natalist policies in the world.

Jews by nature are not extremely fecund or something. Jews in America for example have a TFR significantly below average.

China can learn a lot from those approaches. Hell Israel is in even worse position than China, with much higher population density and less energy resources per capita.
It's mostly these guys.
1619616111063.png

They pay no taxes, resist serving in the draft, have an issue with where ladies sit on the bus. They spent all their time banging their heads against a book written thousands of years ago and don't contribute much to the modern economy, creating a huge friction with the secular and reformed Jews.

Most Jews and Israelis I know rather they use more contraceptive.

Anyhow, that is the the ideal demographic that you want to be exploding.

Don't make assumptions based entirely on the numbers, you have to know the cultural and historical background of what you are talking about.
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Another cause of lower birth rates and lower consumption is long working hours. How is someone supposed to consume or have kids if they are spending most of their time working? Not to mention there is a massive amount of male and female virgins because of this reason (no time to meet people). Given the Communist nature of the CPC, I honestly can't wait for them to start working of solving this problem related to capitalism, although for the moment it seems we are in for a long ride.

This is actually less of a concern in China. Parents in China traditionally take care of their grand kids (especially if they are retired and have free time) and since the implementation of the one-child policy, you've got both the parents and in-laws helping out.

The real problem with long working hours is that young couples don't have time to bond outside of work. If you are working 12/14 hour days you'd be exhausted by the time you get home.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is actually less of a concern in China. Parents in China traditionally take care of their grand kids (especially if they are retired and have free time) and since the implementation of the one-child policy, you've got both the parents and in-laws helping out.

The real problem with long working hours is that young couples don't have time to bond outside of work. If you are working 12/14 hour days you'd be exhausted by the time you get home.
"Parents in China traditionally take care of their grand kids"

And the average retirement age in China is usually in the 50s compare to late 60s here in the US.

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