China's SCS Strategy Thread

[manqiangrexue]

I have similar ideas like voyager1 purposed, more aggressive patrols, more strict enforcement, more island reclamation. Don't be afraid to fire warning shots when necessary. Potentially, PRC could also threaten to remove the old Filipino landing ship occupying second thomas shoal (仁爱礁) if the next government after Duterte becoming too chummy with US again. Like you implied, PRC has developed to a stage that's under intense scrutiny from western adversaries. Bidding its time and treading lightly might have worked when US and its allies didn't view china as much of a threat. This is no longer the case. Hence, PRC's behaviors and actions should also change with new circumstances.

Yes, but that has to be balanced against how nasty and aggressive a power you want to be perceived as in Asia by your South East Asian neighbors. I don't think it would be wrong to do what you recommend, nor do I think it would necessarily be more right over the balance that is currently used.

The uneven withdrawal still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. PRC was far too lenient.

When I heard how the Chinese negotiators were ambushed and tortured/murdered, I said my plan would be to kill every Indian in the area and take no prisoners, telling them if they want their mountain of corpses back, they should hire Russians to carry them because all Indians are shot on sight from now, on so you know I'm not gonna fight you on that opinion. But I respect the CCP's decision over my own opinion.

I have my doubts that PLA would fire on US military unless US fires on Chinese military first. The most likely scenario regarding Taiwan independence would be PLA attacking Taiwanese and possible US allies' assets freely while avoiding targeting US military directly. In short similar to how PLA acted in first and second Taiwan strait crisis.

Yeah, the PLA wouldn't. It would strike Taiwan and if the US were to intervene, then it would have to attack PLA forces first before the CCP issues the order to strike US assets going forward so the ball is in America's court to see if they dare open that Pandora's box and I doubt as much that they would open fire on Chinese forces first as Chinese forces would open fire on them first.

 

[voyager1]

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The president said in a late night televised address that he’s ‘not so much interested’ in the disputed waterway’s fish stocks. But he warned that he would send naval ships if China begins to drill for oil.

Lmao. Duterte is smart af. He gets to play the, Strong Anti-China protecting the country narrative while continuing his old strategy.

The only thing he cares about (rightly) is the oil. However from what I know Philippines has already signed a deal with China on getting a percentage of profits when oil drilling happens

 

[ansy1968]

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Lmao. Duterte is smart af. He gets to play the, Strong Anti-China protecting the country narrative while continuing his old strategy.

The only thing he cares about (rightly) is the oil. However from what I know Philippines has already signed a deal with China on getting a percentage of profits when oil drilling happens

@voyager1 we may have a COC deal within the year with a culmination of an oil deal , its a brilliant strategy on his part, pressuring the China without him pressuring it....HAHAHA, Its that wording came from Sun Tzu or I'm making it up....LOL

 

[voyager1]

@voyager1 we may have a COC deal within the year with a culmination of an oil deal , its a brilliant strategy on his part, pressuring the China without him pressuring it....HAHAHA, Its that wording came from Sun Tzu or I'm making it up....LOL

Yeah and the CIA media inside the country will eat it up as Duterte standing against China lol

Just wait for him to finally get the oil and shaking hands with Xi after that hahahah the CIA media will get a meltdown

 

[ansy1968]

Yeah and the CIA media inside the country will eat it up as Duterte standing against China lol

Just wait for him to finally get the oil and shaking hands with Xi after that hahahah the CIA media will get a meltdown

@voyager1 , Bro he won't announce it yet cause the US will derail it and the American knew it, there are a lot of spies inside the cabinet itself and in the security forces. But he and Xi had an understanding that Scarborough shoal will never be convert into an artificial island (China control it anyway) in return for an oil deal. 60/40 in favor of the Philippine may not be ideal for China but at least she had a shared and if agreed nullify the kangaroo arbitration and give Duterte the top billing to show for his China pivot. Sometimes you had give something to gain something, the sharing of resources in the SCS is a better way of not only maintaining peace but hold the whole region under your auspices. It binds the region to you without the need of war. And with an added bonus of showing the West how we Asian settled our difference with a win win solution instead of domination and seizing of resources.... Take that Trump ooh my bad Biden...LOL

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Better not shout it too loudly before the yankees hear it, just look at how far US is willing to go with Ukraine and Nordstream 2 cancellation.

 

[voyager1]

Sometimes you had give something to gain something, the sharing of resources in the SCS is a better way of not only maintaining peace but hold the whole region under your auspices.

Agreed. Thats where I see China is usually making mistakes on the BRI as well. They are coming in, fly Chinese workers and do the whole work themselves.

Like what are you doing, why do you think the locals there would welcome you if you dont give them jobs....

China should take lessons from the MIC in the US where they spread the work to all states. Come the defence budget appropriations in Congress, every congressman and their mother are always raising the budget to keep the jobs in their states.

China should do the same, they should insert themselves in the local economy, hire locals, build a local network and as a result you will have infinite work there because politicians will love Chinese companies giving jobs.

 

[ansy1968]

Better not shout it too loudly before the yankees hear it, just look at how far US is willing to go with Ukraine and Nordstream 2 cancellation.

@BlackWindMnt bro the Russian had what Obama called an escalatory dominance. They will lose big time in Ukraine and may lead to the dissolution of NATO. Questioning the need for that organization cause instead of protecting Europe it imperil it.

 

[ansy1968]

Agreed. Thats where I see China is usually making mistakes on the BRI as well. They are coming in, fly Chinese workers and do the whole work themselves.

Like what are you doing, why do you think the locals there would welcome you if you dont give them jobs....

China should take lessons from the MIC in the US where they spread the work to all states. Come the defence budget appropriations in Congress, every congressman and their mother are always raising the budget to keep the jobs in their states.

China should do the same, they should insert themselves in the local economy, hire locals, build a local network and as a result you will have infinite work there because politicians will love Chinese companies giving jobs.

@voyager1 bro I may disagree, its a different situation between RBI and the SCS, In RBI aside from its strategic aspect, its about investing and trying to open up new markets for Chinese product, those Chinese workers are needed cause they had the expertise and may help transfer the knowledge to the locals, that is what happening here regarding the China Grant bridges being build and you will be amaze how China build things, its engineering feats is incredible. (Pls Ck the Binondo Intramuros and Estrella Pantaleon bridges.). Especially the Binondo Intramuros bridge since its location is near an UNESCO HERITAGE sites. The Chinese develop new techniques to overcome it even the protesters of the project were silence.....LOL

Regarding the SCS all competing countries wanted the oil below, but they don't have the fund and technology to get it except for China and also the oil is spread among the claimant nation territory, if for example Vietnam drill for oil in its area it might siphon off oil from her neighbors and may lead to war. China understood the dynamics and that is her THRUMP CARD. If you don't want to deal with me then I will drill oil on my accord since I have the means and the tech.

 

[Sardaukar20]

For weeks the Defence Minister Delfin Lorenzana has been screaming for the Chinese boats to leave. Even sent fighter jets to buzz them. Nothing happened.
Then some naval ships come in.They leave. Maybe its just coincidence. Maybe I don't really know what is really going on. But it sure looks like one hell of theater.

Then coupled with Duterte's rethoric this week about sending a warship to stake the PH's claims for oil exploration. No word of anger from China. No PLAN coming over to stake China's claim. Its almost, so nice.

Imagine if Japan had sent JMSDF naval warships to chase away Chinese boats at Diaoyu Islands, I don't think China would ever let Japan get away that easily.

Well since Duterte is a genuine friend of China unlike (ahem) Modi. I'm willing to let my own personal bias give him the benefit of the doubt. Duterte may have pulled a rabbit out of the hat. He had decisively answered his critics regarding allegations about him "kowtowing to China" . The US is now in doubt as to whether he truly is in China's pocket. They might lay off him abit. So now he can concentrate on the domestic politics. And China can return to business as usual with the PH.