China's SCS Strategy Thread

[voyager1]

I agree with the military aspect but the enemy or the receiving end of the Chinese might -- mustn't be it's poorly equipped high in rhetoric like the Philippines -- should be against the U.S. and win the fight in the most violent way possible as to show everyone in the region that China isn't a "paper tiger/dragon" as they (Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines etc.) have been led to believe. After all the sole reason(s) ASEAN countries have been acting tough against China is solely because of the preponderance of U.S. military power that's it. The U.S. is that one single component that glues the disparate and overlapping interests of these countries in the region. The potential military defeat of America will have a profound effect in political, economic stability in the whole region since the sniveling monkeys a.k.a. opportunistic politicians and businessmen wouldn't be too daring to call or support "color revolutions" paving the way for a more cohesive and dynamic prosperity.

I think there are 2 options here.

The 1st is as you said to crush the US military. Well thats a tall order for now and it would certainly be the ultimate goal for China. Thats a long term goal.

The 2nd way is by managing to "damage" a regional country. That can happen with land-grab, geopolitical gains, or simple militarily damage them. This should happen in such a way that the US wouldn't be able to come to the country's help for various reasons

Could be because the US is distracted, China can impose costs, China can control the escalation ladder (grayzone warfare etc.), by diplomatic means(unlikely) etc.

If China can do that 1,2,3 times then that would certainly shape the regional countries' behaviour

A good example was with the Philippines incident when the Americans couldn't help them (international sea law).

China must repeat that a couple more times, not necessarily to Philippines but to a country which it can credibly damage and get away with it.

So that the common people can finally learn the word "fear" again.

Rulers(big countries) are first feared and then loved.
Same with the US, you first fear that they will bomb you to the Stone Age and then you gradually become their vassal.

Something dramatic must happen in order to cause a fundamental rethink of people's opinion for China. The current situation is not working

 

[texx1]

I agree with the military aspect but the enemy or the receiving end of the Chinese might -- mustn't be it's poorly equipped high in rhetoric like the Philippines -- should be against the U.S. and win the fight in the most violent way possible as to show everyone in the region that China isn't a "paper tiger/dragon" as they (Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines etc.) have been led to believe. After all the sole reason(s) ASEAN countries have been acting tough against China is solely because of the preponderance of U.S. military power that's it. The U.S. is that one single component that glues the disparate and overlapping interests of these countries in the region. The potential military defeat of America will have a profound effect in political, economic stability in the whole region since the sniveling monkeys a.k.a. opportunistic politicians and businessmen wouldn't be too daring to call or support "color revolutions" paving the way for a more cohesive and dynamic prosperity.

PRC didn't even dare to kinetically escalate against India for multiple border incursions when it had military advantage. How could ASEAN nations not consider China as a paper tiger especially when it even hid causality figures from its own people last June. Thinking China would take on US military is nothing but fantasy.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

PRC didn't even dare to kinetically escalate against India for multiple border incursions when it had military advantage. How could ASEAN nations not consider China as a paper tiger especially when it even hid causality figures from its own people last June. Thinking China would take on US military is nothing but fantasy.

What are you talking about "hiding casualty figures" from the Chinese public b.s. are you going on about? There's a reason for that which was not to escalate and forced the country from being prodded by their own people into unnecessary war and unneeded war with India. India is simply a nuisance who makes a lot of hay and noise about everything when it comes to China for all the obvious reasons which am assuming you have some sense of awareness. For some reference the PLA deployed 200 main battle tanks within a week into the ladakh region, which shows their mastery of logistics and if you're the Indian military worth your salt you would recognize the huge disadvantage they have if an escalation of action were to happen. Escalation dominance is on China's side not to mention that China was alleged to have committed a cyber attack in Mumbai -- which knocked out their power causing government buildings and commercial buildings into using their emergency power supply -- as a token of their appreciation to India's superpower status.

As for the war against the U.S. you don't think for a nano second that China will not take kinetic action or use force against Taiwan if it actually dares to declare "Independence" ...that's what I meant and meaning when I stated that regardless of the howling hyenas from the surrounding ASEAN countries that tries to provoke China it mustn't take the bite since it'll just be a distraction from the main action against the U.S. forces in the Pacific if Taiwan decides to go banzai. Now if you think that China will simply make wave against Taiwanese Independence and not actually do anything that involves taking military action then please enlighten us as to why you believe such possibility.

 

[voyager1]

Ok after that rubbish article, here is a better one from The Diplomat

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

It is not clear why China’s militia vessels are vacating the reef now, and whether, or when, they may return. In the worst case, they could return with back up from China’s coast guard or the navy. If China moved that aggressively, it could spark a significant crisis

China’s island construction to date all occurred on features that China had previously occupied. Seizing control of a new reef and building military facilities on it would be a significant escalation of its efforts to expand control over the South China Sea.

 

[texx1]

What are you talking about "hiding casualty figures" from the Chinese public b.s. are you going on about? There's a reason for that which was not to escalate and forced the country from being prodded by their own people into unnecessary war and unneeded war with India. India is simply a nuisance who makes a lot of hay and noise about everything when it comes to China for all the obvious reasons which am assuming you have some sense of awareness. For some reference the PLA deployed 200 main battle tanks within a week into the ladakh region, which shows their mastery of logistics and if you're the Indian military worth your salt you would recognize the huge disadvantage they have if an escalation of action were to happen. Escalation dominance is on China's side not to mention that China was alleged to have committed a cyber attack in Mumbai -- which knocked out their power causing government buildings and commercial buildings into using their emergency power supply -- as a token of their appreciation to India's superpower status.

It's not bs. It's fact that China hid border clash causality figures until earlier this year. China didn't want to escalate and wanted room to maneuver domestically so it decided to manage nationalistic sentiment. As such it lost a golden opportunity to unsheathe its stick on a weaker opponent with good justification and change its paper tiger perception.

When you potential enemies know you aren't even willing to escalate against disadvantageous adversaries, it simply emboldens them. They would use every chance to test your resolve and take advantage of you. Instead of appreciating Chinese goodwill after peacefully ending Doklam standoff in 2017, India came back again last year with a far more serious incursion.

As for the war against the U.S. you don't think for a nano second that China will not take kinetic action or use force against Taiwan if it actually dares to declare "Independence" ...that's what I meant and meaning when I stated that regardless of the howling hyenas from the surrounding ASEAN countries that tries to provoke China it mustn't take the bite since it'll just be a distraction from the main action against the U.S. forces in the Pacific if Taiwan decides to go banzai. Now if you think that China will simply make wave against Taiwanese Independence and not actually do anything that involves taking military action then please enlighten us as to why you believe such possibility.

ASEAN countries are not just howling, they have already taken and occupied many islands that rightly belong to PRC. They will continue to encroach Chinese territories in SCS while US keeping China busy with Taiwan. Even ASEAN's howling serves as useful political cover for US to launch media influence operations and get more deeply involved in SCS. As for war, I meant China should use limited conflicts (single ship engagement) against a weak opponent to establish its deterrence. Fighting US to serve as a warning to ASEAN nations is simply out of question.

 

[ansy1968]

As I have written previously on this particular topic, the Philippine media have deluded the Filipino public in assuming that America will protect her if China and the Philippines gets involved in a shooting war. Secondly, the media tends to dismiss or minimize the overwhelming disparity between a superpower in China vs the Philippines which doesn't even come close to being labeled as a regional power.

@Bellum_Romanum your thesis is spot on, Mainstream Media in this pandemic need to earn revenues cause most people in the metropolis are now migrating to social media for news. They're distrusted and its election season, we usually don't believed in survey cause most them are funded by the elites to condition the public mind of candidates of their choosing. Bro Isko Moreno had been floated around by not received well by the public and the cruel thing is he thought he had a chance...LOL. He believes his owned propaganda...LOL

But for now, the de-escalation of rhetoric by the Philippines against China must be taken as positive by the Chinese government considering how rabidly anti-China the public aided and abated by the media with tacit support and coercion from the usual suspect that's the U.S.A.
Losing the Philippines to the Chinese is going to be a major unacceptable blow to the U.S. interest and hegemon in the region. It'll open the flood of possibilities that's actually going to provide tangible benefits to that country being able to operate without the machinations and manipulations from the American hands, which most Filipinos are not aware of and there are some white loving slaves that actually prefer for the country to be absorbed into the U.S. laughably assuming that it'll bring them prosperity, wealth and most importantly become an honorary white member of the Anglo-Saxon world. I am sure @ansy1968 can perhaps attest to some of my thesis.

Bro Secretary Locsin had a meeting with Wang when this happen(suspicious incident?)and may had bought this issue while in China, Like I previously said there is always an unintended consequence and I predict they may had discuss the need to fast track the COC in the SCS before Duterte leave office with a lucrative oil deal as an icing on the cake.

 

[manqiangrexue]

PRC didn't even dare to kinetically escalate against India for multiple border incursions when it had military advantage.

This post is a different tune from #6,737, which is much more sensible. From that post, we see that you understand it's not that the PRC didn't dare but it was its kindness in showing restraint to clearly inferior foes, which wasn't appreciated. Chinese culture reserves no glory for picking on a smaller weaker opponent (within a reasonable red line) while Western culture basically says to beat up all the small people to show the world how tough you are.

How could ASEAN nations not consider China as a paper tiger especially when it even hid causality figures from its own people last June.

You clearly know why the causality figures were withheld; don't make it sound like China lost 50 people and were scared to fight. ASEAN is made of Asian countries that understand Asian values; they know what China can do to them and could have done to India but they also know that China doesn't use its force easily so they balance those. This is far from thinking that China is a paper tiger; paper tigers are known for incompetence, not for reserve. Not a single one of them believes that they could defeat China, but they do think that they can do things without touching the threshold of Chinese military action or even diplomatic attack.

Thinking China would take on US military is nothing but fantasy.

Under what circumstances? Because we have already seen that the US wouldn't take on the Chinese military even if it expands in the SCS and this is what this thread is about.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

It's not bs. It's fact that China hid border clash causality figures until earlier this year. China didn't want to escalate and wanted room to maneuver domestically so it decided to manage nationalistic sentiment. As such it lost a golden opportunity to unsheathe its stick on a weaker opponent with good justification and change its paper tiger perception.

When you potential enemies know you aren't even willing to escalate against disadvantageous adversaries, it simply emboldens them. They would use every chance to test your resolve and take advantage of you. Instead of appreciating Chinese goodwill after peacefully ending Doklam standoff in 2017, India came back again last year with a far more serious incursion.



ASEAN countries are not just howling, they have already taken and occupied many islands that rightly belong to PRC. They will continue to encroach Chinese territories in SCS while US keeping China busy with Taiwan. Even ASEAN's howling serves as useful political cover for US to launch media influence operations and get more deeply involved in SCS. As for war, I meant China should use limited conflicts (single ship engagement) against a weak opponent to establish its deterrence. Fighting US to serve as a warning to ASEAN nations is simply out of question.

As much as it was tempting for China to exact some kind of military action against India just to "show" them who's the boss or put India in their proper place in the pecking order of power, that would have been a most unwise course of action for China if it had done so. Thank the heavens that the Chinese government isn't a reactionary entity by lashing out violently when it's perceived to have been offended or must show strength by expending their soldiers lives as if they mean nothing to them. The commitment of blood and treasure (which are the necessary ingredients used in times of war) ought not to be taken lightly and must only be committed if every possible avenue has been exhausted and no other alternative is possible and or there's an imminent danger to the country. The lives of it's soldiers must not be used to make some minor political statement or be used as expendable canon fodders.

I don't know why some of us think that necessitating military action without much strategic thought against India or any lesser countries in China's periphery would have given it a more formidable place in the grand geopolitical balance of power. Whereby using force it'll somehow subdue and suppressed it's enemies will into submission.

If on the other hand, If India's most recent provocation happened absent covid-19 then the strategic calculus or military posture Chinese government took last year would have been calibrated befitting that particular situation. But China was facing a strong headwind against her caused by the pandemic along with it being demonized by the Western media started by Trump from his trade war policies, the Xinjiang issue, I.P. theft etc.. therefore, prudent thinking and careful strategic calculations were needed and absolute necessary to make to counter the very negative prevailing views against her, and a war with India no matter how brief or short (not guaranteed) would have place severe constrained on it's overall posture in the world. Plus, military combat is one of the most unpredictable of human endeavors and I can't emphasize this point enough. No matter how sound the military strategy the enemy does and will get a say in it's formulation and execution. So with respect, to commit the lives and treasures against an enemy that has no strategic depth or one that doesn't possess an existential threat to China doesn't make absolute sense at all.

 

[Aniah]

PRC didn't even dare to kinetically escalate against India for multiple border incursions when it had military advantage. How could ASEAN nations not consider China as a paper tiger especially when it even hid causality figures from its own people last June. Thinking China would take on US military is nothing but fantasy.

You know the only reason why China didn't make a move on India was because it was a waste of time and that they didn't cross the Chinese red line. Now whereas the US, the Chinese Govt. has directly said they are the only advisory who they see as a real threat and opponent. India has no value in the long term to China which is the complete opposite of the ASEAN side. If the US does anything stupid and crosses the red line then you can expect a guaranteed attack from the Chinese side.

 

[texx1]

As much as it was tempting for China to exact some kind of military action against India just to "show" them who's the boss or put India in their proper place in the pecking order of power, that would have been a most unwise course of action for China if it had done so. Thank the heavens that the Chinese government isn't a reactionary entity by lashing out violently when it's perceived to have been offended or must show strength by expending their soldiers lives as if they mean nothing to them. The commitment of blood and treasure (which are the necessary ingredients used in times of war) ought not to be taken lightly and must only be committed if every possible avenue has been exhausted and no other alternative is possible and or there's an imminent danger to the country. The lives of it's soldiers must not be used to make some minor political statement or be used as expendable canon fodders.

I don't know why some of us think that necessitating military action without much strategic thought against India or any lesser countries in China's periphery would have given it a more formidable place in the grand geopolitical balance of power. Whereby using force it'll somehow subdue and suppressed it's enemies will into submission.

If on the other hand, If India's most recent provocation happened absent covid-19 then the strategic calculus or military posture Chinese government took last year would have been calibrated befitting that particular situation. But China was facing a strong headwind against her caused by the pandemic along with it being demonized by the Western media started by Trump from his trade war policies, the Xinjiang issue, I.P. theft etc.. therefore, prudent thinking and careful strategic calculations were needed and absolute necessary to make to counter the very negative prevailing views against her, and a war with India no matter how brief or short (not guaranteed) would have place severe constrained on it's overall posture in the world. Plus, military combat is one of the most unpredictable of human endeavors and I can't emphasize this point enough. No matter how sound the military strategy the enemy does and will get a say in it's formulation and execution. So with respect, to commit the lives and treasures against an enemy that has no strategic depth or one that doesn't possess an existential threat to China doesn't make absolute sense at all.

A defensive campaign to expel invaders from its own sovereign land shouldn't be considered as needlessly wasting soldiers' lives or treating them as canon fodders. There was precedent in PRC history to engage in border conflict to make political statements, demonstrating resolve and deterrence. Even when PRC was at severe military disadvantage, it fought battle of Zhenbao island on Sino-soviet border in 1969. Some have even argued that the short battle demonstrated PRC's willingness to join anti-soviet side at the time and strengthened Kissinger's interest in renewing ties. As a result, the balance of power shifted somewhat in PRC's favour.

It can very well be argued that geopolitics is ultimately determined by military might. After nearly 30 years peace, PLA needs to bare its teeth. Being passive in the face of aggression for too long, it would make adversaries wonder if PRC leadership still has what it takes. Wars fought by PLA were all under leaders who had seen some serious action in civil war and Sino-Japanese War.

Defeating a weak opponent would make US regional allies think twice and call US' bluff on its commitment to defend them. It would make clear the US strategy of slowly strangling of PRC would not succeed.