Coronavirus 2019-2020 thread (no unsubstantiated rumours!)

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
It's only going to get far worse in India.

The test positivity rate is sky high at 16.7% now. That indicates the real number of new infections is far undercounted and the testing system is breaking down.

So within 2 weeks, I expect the number of daily infections in India will be a minimum of 4x higher than today.

By that point, I also expect every single hospital in India to start turning away large numbers of people who should be admitted.

But even the lucky ones admitted to hospital won't have enough oxygen for all the patients.

I reckon Modi will be under intense political pressure in the next 2 months.
And another widespread strict lockdown in India will be on the cards.

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What made me furious is that the so called Quad didn't give help a bit. Even vaccine raw material export got blocked. It's not even a year for Quad to become serious and they already throw India under the bus? What kind of alliance is that?
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
What made me furious is that the so called Quad didn't give help a bit. Even vaccine raw material export got blocked. It's not even a year for Quad to become serious and they already throw India under the bus? What kind of alliance is that?

The Quad is not a real alliance.

The only new initiative this year was a plan for India to vaccinate South East Asia in a competition with China.

Yes, the US is blocking the export of vaccine production material to India.

But given the situation in India, it's highly unlikely that India will have any spare capacity anyway.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
The Indian variant is the most concerning variant.
It is exploding across India and may be able to evade immunity from a previous infection or vaccination.

Daily new cases in the UK are going down, but the Indian variant is seeing explosive growth now
And the Indian variant is also now present in California.

So even if everyone is vaccinated in a country, it would be stupid to open up travel and allow new variants in.


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True that.
The Indian variant seems to be the most concerning. I believed that the low numbers in India during the previous wave were due to either low reporting of numbers or the resistance of Indians as a populace (due to peculiar average lifestyle conditions there).

But this variant seem to have mutated to trump that built up resistance of Indians. All surrounding countries are in danger. Including China.

If it spreads to Europe and US then it's remains to be seen how dangerous it can be. The mRNA vaccines may offer better protection? I don't know.

But China must Fasttrack its mRNA. And mRNA based vaccine must be made cheaper and readily available. I don't think Pfizer /Moderna has any soul (they are famous for torturing the US populace with their Insulin prices). There is also news that Pfizer has demanded Latin American countries to barter their sovereignty in negotiations.
 

daifo

Captain
Registered Member
I dont care too much about tourism. What I find more important is business travel for investments,.commercial partnerships, mergers etc

There is also about international business conferences, educational exchanges, technlogical seminars etc.

There is a Lot of stuff happening with travel. To be left closed when the rest of the developed world is open, is very bad for the country in regards to technology, education, collaboration etc. This is very complex and in most of the times (if not always), face to face is superior to other forms of communication
You said China will miss out on all that tourist $$$, now you said you dont care about tourist money?
If people want to travel for business/education into China, they will have to be vaccinated and quarantine for a period of time. China doesn't really hold that many international conferences/seminars... if they did , they can hold it in a bubble city where everyone going in / out is vaccinated and tested.
 

caudaceus

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Quad is not a real alliance.

The only new initiative this year was a plan for India to vaccinate South East Asia in a competition with China.

Yes, the US is blocking the export of vaccine production material to India.

But given the situation in India, it's highly unlikely that India will have any spare capacity anyway.
What kind of genius in Biden's team that plan India to become vaccine hub yet prevent raw material exports?

Almost like a dark joke, "Bro please export vaccines for reasons, don't worry we'll help you. What? Now you can't even vaccinate yourself and you need our materials? Too bad".

Seems the Asia Czar (Kurt Campbell) only think about Chyna Chyna Chyna and forgot everything else.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
True that.
The Indian variant seems to be the most concerning. I believed that the low numbers in India during the previous wave were due to either low reporting of numbers or the resistance of Indians as a populace (due to peculiar average lifestyle conditions there).

But this variant seem to have mutated to trump that built up resistance of Indians. All surrounding countries are in danger. Including China.

All the more so that China keeps control of its borders.

I'm already revising my plans on the assumption that the UK and USA will see an Indian Covid variant surge this summer.

---
It looks like roughly 10% of Kumbh Mela festival pilgrims are testing positive on return.

And that there have been more than 10 million pilgrims in the past week.
So that's easily a million infected people travelling all over India.

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Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
What kind of genius in Biden's team that plan India to become vaccine hub yet prevent raw material exports?

Almost like a dark joke, "Bro please export vaccines for reasons, don't worry we'll help you. What? Now you can't even vaccinate yourself and you need our materials? Too bad".

Seems the Asia Czar (Kurt Campbell) only think about Chyna Chyna Chyna and forgot everything else.
But China exports raw materials to Indian pharma? So win?
 
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