Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

[OppositeDay]

Yes but in those countries it happened gradually, I cannot find any case of a 50% drop in just two years.

Yes the two-child policy being introduced I can see it dropping the birth rate to China's national average, but not well below China's national average. Since Xinjiang people naturally have higher fertility it should still have been higher than average even after the 2-child law was enforced equally.

Uyghurs marry and have children much earlier than Han. I won’t be surprised if many had already used up their quota when family planning implementation begun.

Also Xinjiang has practically been in a state of mass mobilisation for the past few years. Han and Uyghurs from North Xinjiang moved to South Xinjiang to implement new policies. Cadres were making weekend visits to local Uyghur families, which upended everyone’s lives. And also the uncertainties of the situation. Who wants to have children with all these going on?

 

[gadgetcool5]

Uyghurs marry and have children much earlier than Han. I won’t be surprised if many had already used up their quota when family planning implementation begun.

It could be. This hypothesis would be helped a lot more if the Chinese government were to release detailed information on the age structure, number of previous children, and ethnic breakdown of the birth rates in the last five years.

 

[steel21]

For us foreigners outside of America ...

It is really hard to understand what is happening inside America.

I would like to just ask one question.

If the world has two supply chains, in semiconductor manufacturing, one serving the China market and one centered/serving the America market, would that be a satisfactory outcome of this so-called tech war?

Honestly, no one knows what the answer would be if we ask the Americans.

I am American, and I also have no answer.

I don't think they want a fully vertically integrated supply chain, they just want to keep the profitable tippy ends, leaving the assembly and boxing to whatever developing country that will do it for cheap.

If there were 2 separate supply chains, then the American one would be vastly more expensive and far smaller. Over time, margins and business being what it is, will revert to a single supply chain, with all players in the American supply chain going out of business.

Imagine you got 2 gaming rigs running Cysis or COD 9
- One is Chinese, with its own system on chip CPU + GPU, running on Ark/Harmony OS, costing around $900. This one has a ecosystem/potential market of around 2-3 billion users spread out between Asia, Europe and India (they do love a bargain!)

- The other is American, running Windows 15, running Intel i10, Nvidia 5060 around $3000. This one has a has the FVEY market of around 500 million.

How long do you think the second supply chain will last?

Duplicating the supply chain is a fool errand, and will last as long as fat subsidies gets piled on, but not a minute more.

 

[voyager1]

China's stance of "non-interference" is partially virtue signaling just as the NFU policy. So partially meaningless.
Would China withhold using nuclear weapons even if that was the last option to avoid suffering an conventional existential defeat?

I mean the NFU is feeling more and more like a joke today and everyone knows this but they just play along.

Now on non-interference, from China's actions it seems that they are mostly following their policy. However it is also important to note that as China grows further, and its interests start getting global you can see some strains on this. And this can be seen by the new law from.China where now the PLA can now take action on "development interests of.China"

So now China can interfere when development interests are in stake (examples could be Myanmar BRI, Tensions on Middle east disrupting oil supply etc.)

Thus i see an evolution from non-interference policy to non-interference but red lines include infrastructure, investments, disrupting vital.supplies to China etc

 

[AssassinsMace]

For us foreigners outside of America ...

It is really hard to understand what is happening inside America.

I would like to just ask one question.

If the world has two supply chains, in semiconductor manufacturing, one serving the China market and one centered/serving the America market, would that be a satisfactory outcome of this so-called tech war?

Honestly, no one knows what the answer would be if we ask the Americans.

The US has a culture of needing to be in control of everything. That wouldn't satisfy the US. If there's something out there they know of that they don't control, it represents a threat to them therefore they need to be in control of it and if they can't, they have to destroy it. That's the only difference from what they accuse of China wanting to take over the world. They think their reason is legitimate.

 

[hashtagpls]

Duplicating supply chains only makes sense if they want a world war level conflict against China; with people like pompeo, cotton and navarro, you can guarantee a higher than 50% probability that this will be US policy in a Republican administration.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

They are fast tracking this.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[horse]

The US has a culture of needing to be in control of everything. That wouldn't satisfy the US. If there's something out there they know of that they don't control, it represents a threat to them therefore they need to be in control of it and if they can't, they have to destroy it. That's the only difference from what they accuse of China wanting to take over the world. They think their reason is legitimate.

Well sure, I agree, but we are way far beyond that.

What can they realistically do?

If they want to deny China semiconductor chips, how is that even feasible?

Then the question at hand,

Are two supply chains acceptable to the Americans?

If not, like you indicated, then how can they prevent that alternate supply chain from forming?

The first strike is the only creditable strategy here. Of course, China would just launch themselves, fulfilling American dreams of Armageddon. I do not believe that this will happen.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

A few people did that. Not all Uyghur people. A person's character can only be determined by their own actions, not those of others who happen to share an ethnic group.

Give me a break. Tell that to the U.S. for invading Afghanistan and Iraq who had nothing to do with 911.

I am sorry to say but I just can't stand the extreme double standard and moral hypocricies western leaning folks tend to do.

I mean if any western countries are going to go about criticizing the Chinese method of dealing with extremism then perhaps your people and culture ought to show and lead the way with concrete examples. But we don't get nothing of the sorts, all we ever see, hear, and read are the emptiness and the shallowness of the vacuous speech of diversity, respecting this or that..while the problems actually persist if not grows even more unmanageable.

If such holier than thou attitude was actually enacted in America then the black American incarceration issue/problem wouldn't be that pathetic; the native American experience of poverty and hopelessness wouldn't be this acute. And most of all the cops wouldn't be murdering a lot of minorities to the point that there's a massive chasm between the police with the people in minority community if they were judged on the basis of their actions and not on the basis of the colors of their skin...

What you said does not reflect the reality of life in all of western countries least of which the U.S. so please spare us the moral high horse when you and I both know it's all a bunch of horse manure.

 

[bajingan]

They are fast tracking this.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Look i may be just overthinking this and i maybe just being paranoid, but if we looked at what happened to meng, is there any possibility that it could be a trap, and they might stupidly and foolishly try to arrest Wang Yi or Yang Jiechi on american soil?
i would not put it past the americans to try to pull off this shit