Ladakh Flash Point

[ougoah]

Indian government said they will disclose information on disengagement on Gogra, Hot Springs, Depsang, and Kailash on the 16th of February.

It is now about to be March and Indian government has been HIDING this information! What are they HIDING?!?!??!?! hahahahaha this is Jai Hind level nonsense. When Indian gov eventually release the info, for whatever reason/s they are still not doing, few Chinese people would care why and fewer would accuse them of hiding in the meantime. These are the sorts of crumbs that Jai Hind gang like to scavenge.

 

[quantumlight]

I am sorry but this has to be one of the most ridiculous comments. Wars are never the answer. The defence capabilities should be as it says "Defence". China or any other country in the right frame of mind cannot risk geo political issues that will arise as a result of this as you put it "small scale war".

The economic issues on hand a far greater than getting involved in pointless wars which will not garner anything for any country. In long run the future wars will be fought on economic and information battle grounds. China is indeed fortifying its position on that front and will be doing that for years to come. A conventional war even at a limited scale will not favour China and if Pakistan gets involved that would be stupidity of an epic scale.

Sorry to be blunt but some of your comments on this forum just dont make any sense.

Currently US is encouraging India to be the anti-China force with the Indo Pacific strategy QUAD etc.
But I think India is the weakest link. China can destroy india. So while China looks like building up in South China Sea and against Taiwan on the eastern side but the true strategic equation can be changed by attacking India and make India lose Cashmere state. US cannot help India high up in mountain of cashmere

You would wonder India has put more than 500,000 troops and huge amount of tanks and artillery in cashmere. But its air-force is weak despite huge number. It had SU30mki and soon Dassault Rafael.
If China and Pakistan simultaneously launch air campaign against India.. China would use j20 and electronic attacker j16 to wipe out India airforce.
Once achieve air-superiority they can bomb those Indian highway and bridge. No backup supplies can sent in from India to its troops in cashmere. The troops will be sitting ducks with no backup supplies.

Let Pakistan wipe out India s 500,000 troops afterward and China make sure no Indian reinforcement and supplies can get into cashmere.
The main thing is China should have large number of j20, and j31 ready and build up large number nuke weapons and pointing at New Delhi. This way even if India lose cashmere it wont try to do something stupid.
And China should reroute water in Tibet so it wont reach indie.

This campaign destroying India will change everything.
Western side will be wide open.
United with Pakistan and Iran to kick US troops out of middle east
On the eastern side US force navy and air force plus all its allies too strong. Cannot win.
Western side, it can achieve breakthrough
China can change geopolitical landscape by destroying India troop in cashmere

 

[KYli]

We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal, We Manipulate

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[Bellum_Romanum]

Logic will get you no where with people like twineedle. Read any Indian community discussion, twitter feed, comments on youtube. They are all 100% convinced that both the battle and the peace agreement were a big victory of India.

It reminds me of a video a European traveller made of his experience visiting India. He saw all the pollution, public defacation, literal corpses floating in rivers that people drank from, cows wandering around the streets eating litter - it all was a big culture shock to him. At the end of the video he asked one of his Indian hosts whether they thought India would ever become a developed country.

The Indian guy responded "what do you mean, we are developed!"

That is what people like twineedle and millions of others like him think.

I've visited third world countries in Asia, Africa, seen parts of Europe that resemble the third world. No one is under any delusions like the Indian people are. Not all of course, but the good ones tend to leave.

I think Chinese policy on this has shown the complete lack of experience of the Indian psyche. What they did would be fine with a with South Koreans, Japanese, Americans, but with Indians it is entirely counterproductive. Rather than damaging their ego, you've strengthened it.

I have always thought that what the CPC and PLA did in the aftermath of the June clash last year that resulted on casualties from both sides was an exercise in strategic patience and looking at the overall landscape on a macro (Strategy) level rather than on a micro level (tactical).

The priority for the Chinese government is not the border issue with India but at the same time the low priority doesn't mean ceding an inch to their erstwhile neighbor. The main focus remains to be the South China Sea and it's renegade province of Taiwan.

But it's also not hard to postulate a possibility that India had a tacit approval or agreement with the U.S. to try and do a probing attack to make a determination the level of response, the kind of response the PLA can bring forth against a future and potential fight. It'll help assess the PLA's current force modernization whether they are worthy to be feared on the battlefield, including the capabilities of the leadership i.e. tactical response time and flexibility as well as battle tempo.

This is just my hunch of course but it's certainly something I would do if I was either the U.S. military or the I.A. both countries have something to gain on teaming up against China. One is doing it's best to stymied, delay, prevent, and or stop China’s rise while the latter wants to show that it's already a credible regional power with an aspiration to becoming a superpower.

The Chinese leadership must have realized this or aware of this particular vulnerability which is maybe why the video wasn't release at the height of the conflict and maybe they were trying to ensure that they have all the facts sorted out before going out to the public with the news regarding the death of 4 soldiers and the wounding of another soldier/officer.

The CPC is determined not to have another 1950 redux where it was set and ready to retake Taiwan and end the Chinese Civil War only for Kim Il Sung to launch the surprise attack against the R.O.K.

The eyes on the prize was Taiwan then and now.

 

[siegecrossbow]

We Lie, We Cheat, We Steal, We Manipulate

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Not even an editorial or opinion piece. Shame on NY Times for peddling lies.

 

[broadsword]

China-India Demilitarized Zone Upsets Defense Officials in Delhi

By Sudhi Ranjan Sen
February 28, 2021, 5:00 AM GMT+8 Updated on March 1, 2021, 7:23 AM GMT+8

Indian security officials worry border pullback favors China


After the deadliest fighting in decades, India and China are setting up demilitarized areas along their Himalayan border -- a move that has rankled some members of India’s security establishment.

Soldiers from both countries for now will no longer patrol a nine-kilometer (six-mile) stretch on the north bank of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake some 14,000 feet above sea level where troops clashed last year, according to two Indian officials aware of the developments. The agreement would result in India pulling back from strategic high ground occupied in a stealth operation last August, they said.

The move followed the creation of a similar demilitarized zone last year some 150 kilometers away along the Galwan river, where 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops were killed in brutal hand-to-hand combat. That escalation on June 15, the first time casualties were reported along the disputed frontier since 1975. China only acknowledged the deaths on Feb. 19.

While the pullback has calmed tensions for the moment, some members of India’s security establishment believe the creation of non-militarized areas work in Beijing’s favor, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations. They said China raised suspicions by objecting to an Indian proposal for both countries to patrol the area around the lake on alternate days on the grounds that it would affect Beijing’s sovereignty.

Indian defense and security officials had raised their concerns about the area around Pangong Tso with the government but it opted for a speedy disengagement. On Feb. 10 the two countries began rolling back soldiers, tanks and artillery guns that were stationed around the lake in rifle range of each other for nearly 10 months.

China Gained Ground on India During Bloody Summer in Himalayas

The Indian army, Defense Ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office didn’t immediately reply to requests for comment.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the creation of non-militarized zones along the border was “made up by the media” in response to questions. On Friday in Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the situation on the ground “significantly eased” after the disengagement.

“The two sides should cherish this hard won momentum and consolidate existing outcomes, maintain momentum for consultation and further ease the situation,” he said at a regular briefing.

CHINA-INDIA-CONFLICT-DIPLOMACY
Chinese and Indian soldiers clash in the Galwan Valley, in the Karakoram Mountains in the Himalayas in June 2020.Source: CCTV/AFP/Getty Images
Distrust between the two militaries could lead to further misunderstandings, according to Sushant Singh senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research and author of “Mission Overseas: Daring Operations by Indian Military.

“The model of buffer zones is temporary and full of challenges,” he said. “More importantly, India’s options are limited in case China -- a much bigger military power -- violates the agreement.”

If the demilitarized areas end up keeping the peace, they could become a model for how India and China deal with a border nearly as long as the one between the U.S. and Mexico. Nationalism stoked by the fighting has had an economic impact, with Modi’s government banning hundreds of Chinese apps, slowing approvals for Chinese investment and strengthening security ties with the U.S., Japan and Australia.

Why Chinese and Indian Troops Clash in the Himalayas

Still, while the demilitarized zones are aimed at preventing clashes of the sort that erupted last summer, the competing claims between the two sides remain, officials said. And a previous experiment with creating a demilitarized zone on the border with China has shown that it’s not a guarantee of peace.

An 80-square-kilometer (31-square-mile) patch of pasture land along the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian border state of Uttarakhand was the first to be set aside as no-man’s-land in the 1950s. Yet that has failed to prevent conflict in the area, according to Jayadeva Ranade, a member of India’s National Security Council Advisory Board and head of the New Delhi-based Centre for China Analysis and Strategy.

“Uttarakhand border continues to be a hot spot,” he said. “Beijing’s track record of respecting agreements is poor.”

— With assistance by Jing Li

 

[Temstar]

I have always thought that what the CPC and PLA did in the aftermath of the June clash last year that resulted on casualties from both sides was an exercise in strategic patience and looking at the overall landscape on a macro (Strategy) level rather than on a micro level (tactical).

The priority for the Chinese government is not the border issue with India but at the same time the low priority doesn't mean ceding an inch to their erstwhile neighbor. The main focus remains to be the South China Sea and it's renegade province of Taiwan.

But it's also not hard to postulate a possibility that India had a tacit approval or agreement with the U.S. to try and do a probing attack to make a determination the level of response, the kind of response the PLA can bring forth against a future and potential fight. It'll help assess the PLA's current force modernization whether they are worthy to be feared on the battlefield, including the capabilities of the leadership i.e. tactical response time and flexibility as well as battle tempo.

This is just my hunch of course but it's certainly something I would do if I was either the U.S. military or the I.A. both countries have something to gain on teaming up against China. One is doing it's best to stymied, delay, prevent, and or stop China’s rise while the latter wants to show that it's already a credible regional power with an aspiration to becoming a superpower.

The Chinese leadership must have realized this or aware of this particular vulnerability which is maybe why the video wasn't release at the height of the conflict and maybe they were trying to ensure that they have all the facts sorted out before going out to the public with the news regarding the death of 4 soldiers and the wounding of another soldier/officer.

The CPC is determined not to have another 1950 redux where it was set and ready to retake Taiwan and end the Chinese Civil War only for Kim Il Sung to launch the surprise attack against the R.O.K.

The eyes on the prize was Taiwan then and now.

In Xi Yazhou's latest podcast they talked about this:

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A long time ago, not long after the formation of the PRC, PLA took on the entire UN in Korea and fought them to a stand still. This exceeded Soviet Union's expectation and so they went ahead and gave China technological aid (156 specific cases of technology transfer) and that formed the basis for China's modernisation effort which continues to this day.

Soviet Union of course doesn't entirely trust China and so offered similar program to India. The outcome were clearly not identical between the two. India might be keen for a second attempt at this from the US, and hence all the activities last year.

But of course, China won a chance at modernisation with help from Soviet Union by paying a price of 200,000 dead in Korea. Now that Trump is gone US is no fool and they're not going to give India aid unless they actually put in the work. You can see since Biden took office there's been zero noise from US about aiding India, and India not welling to do the wet work everything fizzled out. This is China's preferred outcome.

According to Xi and Mr Su, PLA's originally intended to parade the 20 prisons through the streets of Lhasa, the idea was quickly shot down by CPC leadership and they intentionally played it down. Full video footage exists of the prisoners and their interviews and so on and all such media are under lock so as to not force India into a corner. Similarly casualty numbers and details of the conflict was intentionally kept under wrap so as not to inflame domestic opinions. The reports we got in this thread earlier on, about broken fingers and so on were in fact intended only for internal PLA audience and was leaked. Mr Su said this would have been disastrous if the leak happened during the height of the conflict last year as CPC may then be forced to initiate military response to prove to the people they are in control. Depending on how that escalates that had the potential to disrupt China's strategic planning for next 10 years. Fortunately the leak happened after the disengagement and didn't stir up too much trouble domestically. The leaker is no doubt in a darkened room somewhere at this moment getting a good talk to.

Apparently at the 10 round of talk China specifically warned India that if they were to cause any sort of trouble in 2021 they will be taught a lesson from which they will remember for 3-5 years. Based on casualty numbers from 1962 and if we consider 1962 having been successful in calming things down for 20 years than that would indicate a casualty in the three digits. So something like wiping out a company sized unit (wrapping a dumpling, as it were).

 

[twineedle]

Such a warped view.

Satellite imagery used for arguments were often out of context, no dates, no indication what "troops and equipment" is shown despite Indians wild conclusions. Anyway I think Galwan river bend disengagement happened after the river flooded. This is like the F4 of valley side. The PLA still were occupying many parts of what India claims. The equivalent of leaving F4 as the river flooded and staying on F6. You aren't saying anything about Galwan valley apart from PLA had tents on the bend and after the river flooded, they moved out.

Are you forgetting that IA also settled on the bend in the past? Then PLA, then no one? How is that Indian victory especially when India claims a whole 10km further from that one spot of satellite footage?

What is the point of contention when it comes to sources? I'm assuming it is about death count? In that case, literally ALL the sources that say PLA have more than 4 deaths come from India or from "anonymous source" which have been disclosed as Indian in origin. Why does Indian gov not officially declare PLA lost n soldiers OR challenge CCP's declaration it lost 4? Why doesn't any third party do that? Seems like those iffy numbers WERE indeed made up by Indians because 1. They vary immensely (get your lies in order), 2. They are all from anon or Indian sources and US intel has never declared this despite Indian controlled media propagating this lie, 3. No authority figure wants to publicly declare those iffy PLA loss figures or say that CCP is lying. This isn't because they don't want to. It's because they know CCP is saying the truth or they know the CCP has ample evidence to back up claim and retaliate by embarrassing India further with the true nature of Indian captives and exactly how many Indians actually lost in June.

When has Sawhney been proven wrong? I'm not aware and could be a case of iffy small details between Pak and India where India says xyz officially and Pak says abc. Then again India claims it shot down an F-16 with a magic invisible missile from a Mig-21. India isn't the boy who cried wolf. India is the child who cried wolf 20 times in an empty room. Its lies that were exposed are beyond pathetic.

I'm not basing all my attention in Pravin but he does provide a decent summary like Shukla. They are both two of many less biased Indians and certainly don't work for BJP IT Cell. So yeah that makes them a lot better (if their writings aren't obvious enough) than your garden variety anon Jai Hind troll. He's as potentially biased as anyone but Dinny surely is. Dinny like VK Singh works for India. When they say stuff that is against India, it is very likely true or so comically undeniable there is no point lying about it. When they say things for India like Dinny's IA rarely patrolled up to F8. Well that depends on his personal definition of the word rarely. Dinny himself admits that IA did patrol up to F8. That's your entire argument gone. IA patrolled up to F8 and now gets to go nowhere beyond F3.

When did I dispute PLA deaths? As far as I am concerned, GT reported 4 deaths, so that is what stands. But deaths and casualties have nothing to do with who wins a conflict.

I am glad you are admitting that anyone against the current Indian government is credible. That shows your bias. But what would you think about analysts and journalists like Nitin Gokhale and Snehesh Alex Philip? They have never served in the Indian army or worked for the Indian gov. so by your logic they should be credible.

 

[twineedle]

Indian government said they will disclose information on disengagement on Gogra, Hot Springs, Depsang, and Kailash on the 16th of February.

It is now about to be March and Indian government has been HIDING this information! What are they HIDING?!?!??!?! hahahahaha this is Jai Hind level nonsense. When Indian gov eventually release the info, for whatever reason/s they are still not doing, few Chinese people would care why and fewer would accuse them of hiding in the meantime. These are the sorts of crumbs that Jai Hind gang like to scavenge.

I am pretty sure I have already explained that. In Depsang, there has been no change in status quo despite what some media reports are saying. In hot springs adn gogra, both sides are close to each other but on opposite ends of the LAC. Teh situation there s nothing like it was at Galwan and Pangong.

As for kailash, both sides withdrew. India withdrew from Rechin la and Rezang la, and China withdrew from Helmet and Black top. Neither side had permanent deployments there before the standoff, for obvious reasons. India had occupied kailash for the sole purpose of getting China to withdraw from Pangong. Now that that purpose has been acheived, there is no reason to remain, despite what "analysts" like Shukla and Sawhney say.


Any other questions?

 

[twineedle]

No. China stopped India from patrolling that region.
Status quo won't be restored until patrols upto F8 is resumed.

Try again.

By your logic, India is also stopping China from patrolling that region.