Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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ansy1968

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set me thinking about how bad the US will have it in the next couple of years

From George Washington until ww2, the US could afford high wages because it was consistently protectionist; they only started lowering tariffs after most of the world's industry was obliterated by ww2, and they only agreed to keep open because of VERs, Smithsonian Agreement and Plaza Accord etc.

Trump supporters are mainly former middle class whites involved in agriculture, mining, construction, and low tech manufacturing who are extremely discontent at being pushed down into minimum wage and welfare because US industry is not competitive with the rest of the world and Hispanic immigrants can do their jobs at half the wage. In the case of minimum wage hikes and progressive tax increases I'm sure that US industry is so depressed they will simply respond with layoffs.

The Democrats' red line on environmentalism, immigration etc and import policy will only further undercut the Trump country sectors and enrage them even more. and it's not like they can find other jobs with that terrible education system. if dems try to take legal action on the MAGA leadership it will only create martyrs for their cause to rally behind.

Biden has a choice of either enraging the red states or enraging the blue states. More violence and government retaliation will do well to damage US reputation and stability, but the only politically uncontroversial thing Biden can do is continue flogging the Chinese bogeyman so we should be prepared for more of that.

The problem is reminiscent of India: previously they built up the IT and medical industries instead of gradually moving up the value chain. It benefited a tiny educated minority (casteism?) while the rest of the country remained peasant deadweight dragging down the economy with crime and voting for unproductive agricultural subsidies. And right now Modi and co is learning how difficult it is to reform the economy in a "diverse democracy".
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I wonder how much longer modi will be able to distract the populace with hindu supremacy and the yellow peril+muslim strawman.
@Tse

A good summary, there is a contradictory regarding $15 hour wages, it seems to have support for majority of American even with Republican conservative, Poll from Florida support that and also for both democrats senate win in Georgia. But having that will have an inflationary effect in the US economy unless they lower the Chinese tariff. And if they go with that most gain will be felt in the service sector easily. The major country that will be affected is India where telemarketing and other back office job will not be outsource anymore.
 

AndrewS

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set me thinking about how bad the US will have it in the next couple of years

From George Washington until ww2, the US could afford high wages because it was consistently protectionist; they only started lowering tariffs after most of the world's industry was obliterated by ww2, and they only agreed to keep open because of VERs, Smithsonian Agreement and Plaza Accord etc.

High wages in the USA prior to WW2 were primarily a reflection of 2 things:
1. A huge amount of virgin land and comparatively few people. Remember agriculture and natural resources were the basis of wealth back then.
2. The rest of the world being stuck in old/traditional ways of doing things.

Protectionism wasn't really a factor
Trump supporters are mainly former middle class whites involved in agriculture, mining, construction, and low tech manufacturing who are extremely discontent at being pushed down into minimum wage and welfare because US industry is not competitive with the rest of the world and Hispanic immigrants can do their jobs at half the wage. In the case of minimum wage hikes and progressive tax increases I'm sure that US industry is so depressed they will simply respond with layoffs.


The US economy has already deindustrialised and the wage sensitive industries have already moved out.
Industry is now down to 18% of GDP and only employs 20% of workers.

So I think a moderately high minimum wage (say $15USD per hour) would only have a muted impact on layoffs and unemployment.
Lower-paid service workers should see a large bump in wages and less inequality. The studies show that this results in a happier and healthier society for both poor AND rich.


The Democrats' red line on environmentalism, immigration etc and import policy will only further undercut the Trump country sectors and enrage them even more. and it's not like they can find other jobs with that terrible education system. if dems try to take legal action on the MAGA leadership it will only create martyrs for their cause to rally behind.

Biden has a choice of either enraging the red states or enraging the blue states. More violence and government retaliation will do well to damage US reputation and stability, but the only politically uncontroversial thing Biden can do is continue flogging the Chinese bogeyman so we should be prepared for more of that.

I don't see the Blue states being enraged by Biden if he pushes a higher minimum wage for everyone.
That would counteract a lot of unpopular policies.

The problem is reminiscent of India: previously they built up the IT and medical industries instead of gradually moving up the value chain. It benefited a tiny educated minority (casteism?) while the rest of the country remained peasant deadweight dragging down the economy with crime and voting for unproductive agricultural subsidies. And right now Modi and co is learning how difficult it is to reform the economy in a "diverse democracy".
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I wonder how much longer modi will be able to distract the populace with hindu supremacy and the yellow peril+muslim strawman.

Yes, it does look like the USA is becoming more like India in many ways.
 

daifo

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Pompeo's final chaos gift to Biden. What the Trump administration does and even the US does to some degree, is becoming less relevant as other countries and region are developing. However, stuff like this hurts China's image because the majority of -supposely free to access infomation- folks are brainwashed or just ignorant

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weig2000

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Pompeo's final chaos gift to Biden. What the Trump administration does and even the US does to some degree, is becoming less relevant as other countries and region are developing. However, stuff like this hurts China's image because the majority of -supposely free to access infomation- folks are brainwashed or just ignorant

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"The Trump administration has determined that China has committed “genocide and crimes against humanity” in its repression of Uygur Muslims in its Xinjiang region, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday, delivering an embarrassing blow to Beijing a day before US President-elect Joe Biden is to take office."

Why is it an embarrassing blow, coming from lying/cheating/stealing Pompeo, if it is a blow at all?
 

Gatekeeper

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Pompeo's final chaos gift to Biden. What the Trump administration does and even the US does to some degree, is becoming less relevant as other countries and region are developing. However, stuff like this hurts China's image because the majority of -supposely free to access infomation- folks are brainwashed or just ignorant

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Not his final... he is twitting every five minutes now... still 24 hours left to go

"The Trump administration has determined that China has committed “genocide and crimes against humanity” in its repression of Uygur Muslims in its Xinjiang region, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Tuesday, delivering an embarrassing blow to Beijing a day before US President-elect Joe Biden is to take office."

Why is it an embarrassing blow, coming from lying/cheating/stealing Pompeo, if it is a blow at all?

How embarrassing is that. If that's what you really think, then why wait till the last day in your job to say so?

We all know why, they we're still hoping for that illusive trade deal that never came.

Plus the fact that fat Pomp has lost all credibility with all his counterpart the world over.

So the last card left to play, is the tried and tested method of........ lied, cheat and stole!
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
How embarrassing is that. If that's what you really think, then why wait till the last day in your job to say so?

We all know why, they we're still hoping for that illusive trade deal that never came.

Plus the fact that fat Pomp has lost all credibility with all his counterpart the world over.

So the last card left to play, is the tried and tested method of........ lied, cheat and stole!
If fat pomp say something bad about you it actually gives more substance to the opposite since no one outside of the American superstition belt cares what he says anyway and just believe the opposite is true.

China can just declare the American government as historically and presently a danger to humanity, you know back it up with evidence.
 
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