Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

[AssassinsMace]

If Biden waged the exact same trade war that Trump waged, he would be hammered and get blamed by the Republican Party for ruining the US. No matter what Republican, they stay in-line with the party. Democrats could never get away with what Trump has done. So if Biden went further than Trump against China, things can only get worse for the US and the Republicans would ponce. It isn't working now so who would think Biden would get results staying with the same plan? Trump can claim he tried and wants to be rewarded for it and Republicans would go along with that spin because otherwise it would be a failure. But with the Democrats, they would love to paint failure on them. At least with Biden there will be consequences.

 

[caudaceus]

If Biden waged the exact same trade war that Trump waged, he would be hammered and get blamed by the Republican Party for ruining the US. No matter what Republican, they stay in-line with the party. Democrats could never get away with what Trump has done. So if Biden went further than Trump against China, things can only get worse for the US and the Republicans would ponce. It isn't working now so who would think Biden would get results staying with the same plan? Trump can claim he tried and wants to be rewarded for it and Republicans would go along with that spin because otherwise it would be a failure. But with the Democrats, they would love to paint failure on them. At least with Biden there will be consequences.

Actually I read somewhere that Democrat was in glee when Trump wagged the trade war. They know that Obama couldn't do it without losing the Midwest votes. Their early expectations were hoping to vote Trump out, seal a deal with China and pat themselves as the real deal maker not the faux like a Trump.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Actually I read somewhere that Democrat was in glee when Trump wagged the trade war. They know that Obama couldn't do it without losing the Midwest votes. Their early expectations were hoping to vote Trump out, seal a deal with China and pat themselves as the real deal maker not the faux like a Trump.

I'm not surprised that Democrats are for a trade war with China. They know they would be blamed for all the blowback if it was them. I'm talking about Americans politics. All Democrats and Republicans bickering is just a power struggle on who will run the world because Democrats too see the value in white supremacy. They just don't say it out loud. There's no such thing a one being good and the other being evil. Democrats want to dictate to the world just like Republicans on what's important. Americans think in black and white because they want to control the narrative. It has nothing to do with being good and evil when both think they're the good guy and the other is evil. None of them are the good guys.

What do you do when you only have two white supremacist parties for people to choose from? You have to pick the lesser of two evils. Some in here are arguing having Trump serve another fours years is best for China because it will further spiraling US relations with the world hence why they're for him winning. Like I've been saying US allies are still sticking with the US even with Trump as President. Why? Because maintaining Western superiority over the world is most important. They're going along with his tech ban on China. The only thing they haven't done is go to war with China. So which party more likely to start a war? Thinking that the US will become non-threatening with more four years of Trump is about as arrogant as Americans thinking they're the ones that will ending Chinese civilization overnight. The Europeans hate Trump but they're still sticking with US. So that should tell every Chinese they're all about their own interest and it would foolish to think otherwise. And it's also foolish to believe that Democrats are different from Republicans.

 

[2handedswordsman]

All Democrats and Republicans bickering is just a power struggle on who will run the world because Democrats too see the value in white supremacy

Last democrat president was black and future vice pres will be if Biden elected. Thousands of white people are homeless is USA and the "white supremacist" state do nothing about it. With that given, we can observe one thing. This struggle is about corporate profits and gains. Cons and dems respresent different fractions of US deep state. They both just see the value chain of being a superpower, applying and controlling the world's capitalist system, having dollar as a world reserve currency. In second matter yes, as you moving righter, you get closer to nazis.

 

[caudaceus]

Not sure if this is relevant to the thread bu at I found it interesting.

If you remember back before the pandemic was starting, there was an expectation that there would be a recession in the US this year, not because of the pandemic of course.

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Alas, the recession does happen, but that was because of the pandemic, not because of the US' economic fundamentals.
So my question is, could these dormant economic fundamental issues and probably coupled with aggressive fed financing be "reanimated" and invoke another recession in say less than five years?

 

[horse]

Not sure if this is relevant to the thread bu at I found it interesting.

If you remember back before the pandemic was starting, there was an expectation that there would be a recession in the US this year, not because of the pandemic of course.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Alas, the recession does happen, but that was because of the pandemic, not because of the US' economic fundamentals.
So my question is, could these dormant economic fundamental issues and probably coupled with aggressive fed financing be "reanimated" and invoke another recession in say less than five years?

1. Recessions are over-rated.

There is a business cycle. It goes up and it goes down. If there are two quarters of negative growth, then that is a recessions.

There are several graphics on the internet. Recessions just do not happen often. In China, there has not been one in 40 or more years. In America, there only been a hand full since World War 2.

When a recession does hit, the important thing to do is not get caught, and wait. Eventually the stimulus will cause the stock market to rise, so be prepared to buy. Business owners need to hang on and look for opportunities when things turn better in the following months.

There is always a 6 month business cycle they say. If there is a recession, look ahead 6 months and think about that, perhaps make a plan.


2. That is not important, the recession itself. What is important is to access risk.

But ... to access risk accurately ... you must know where the real threats are ...

Ever listen to the gold bugs? Does not matter what the price of gold is or where it had been and where it is going, their story is always the same. The paranoia got to them.

Best thing to do, is listen to rich people. They have the line to the best information.

I am not rich, but it seems to me this is what they are saying.

The USA is printing money, like industrial printing. That always is bad.

The USA is printing money, but that is deflationary, because the free credit is creating zombie company that earn nothing, but the zombie company must still pay back their debts, so all the printed money just goes to the bankers and debt holder eventually.

The risk of inflation is low. The risk the to USD depreciating is high.

The western economies probably be stagnant.

The stock market should go up with all the money printing and no inflation. The stock market is no longer a broad market of stocks. Only a few stocks move the entire market (long story).

You get the picture.

Now there is another risk, which is the pandemic. But that seems just like something to slow down growth in the real economy but not the high tech economy. See where the risk is there and invest accordingly. No secret the FANNG stocks are doing well along with the Star Market in China.

Geopolitical risks, overstated. More like geopolitical opportunity. They ban Huawei. All that means 5G comes slower to America or Canada. That means the telephone company, yielding a dividend of 4% (when rates are negative) seem like sound investment.

Bullshit examples of accessing risk.

This is the important part.

Everyone should get a fucking education first.

We need an education. For those of us who are not as smart, it is not fair but that is life some are born with a brain some are not, just try to be friends with smart people who can help.

Without an education, or friends that help, all this bullshit is completely bullshit that is not understood. Those people overwhelmed by bullshit.

Get an education. Know what fact is important (Art of War don't get yo' ass tricked), have an idea what the long term trends in the world right now are, and really important to listen to rich people.

That is why the rich stay rich, and poor usually don't have a chance.

BLM!

 

[emblem21]

1. Recessions are over-rated.

There is a business cycle. It goes up and it goes down. If there are two quarters of negative growth, then that is a recessions.

There are several graphics on the internet. Recessions just do not happen often. In China, there has not been one in 40 or more years. In America, there only been a hand full since World War 2.

When a recession does hit, the important thing to do is not get caught, and wait. Eventually the stimulus will cause the stock market to rise, so be prepared to buy. Business owners need to hang on and look for opportunities when things turn better in the following months.

There is always a 6 month business cycle they say. If there is a recession, look ahead 6 months and think about that, perhaps make a plan.


2. That is not important, the recession itself. What is important is to access risk.

But ... to access risk accurately ... you must know where the real threats are ...

Ever listen to the gold bugs? Does not matter what the price of gold is or where it had been and where it is going, their story is always the same. The paranoia got to them.

Best thing to do, is listen to rich people. They have the line to the best information.

I am not rich, but it seems to me this is what they are saying.

The USA is printing money, like industrial printing. That always is bad.

The USA is printing money, but that is deflationary, because the free credit is creating zombie company that earn nothing, but the zombie company must still pay back their debts, so all the printed money just goes to the bankers and debt holder eventually.

The risk of inflation is low. The risk the to USD depreciating is high.

The western economies probably be stagnant.

The stock market should go up with all the money printing and no inflation. The stock market is no longer a broad market of stocks. Only a few stocks move the entire market (long story).

You get the picture.

Now there is another risk, which is the pandemic. But that seems just like something to slow down growth in the real economy but not the high tech economy. See where the risk is there and invest accordingly. No secret the FANNG stocks are doing well along with the Star Market in China.

Geopolitical risks, overstated. More like geopolitical opportunity. They ban Huawei. All that means 5G comes slower to America or Canada. That means the telephone company, yielding a dividend of 4% (when rates are negative) seem like sound investment.

Bullshit examples of accessing risk.

This is the important part.

Everyone should get a fucking education first.

We need an education. For those of us who are not as smart, it is not fair but that is life some are born with a brain some are not, just try to be friends with smart people who can help.

Without an education, or friends that help, all this bullshit is completely bullshit that is not understood. Those people overwhelmed by bullshit.

Get an education. Know what fact is important (Art of War don't get yo' ass tricked), have an idea what the long term trends in the world right now are, and really important to listen to rich people.

That is why the rich stay rich, and poor usually don't have a chance.

BLM!

Yes. It does seem like the USA system is also set up for things like this from the get go. It’s like they want make everyone poor so they could lord over them and then they get the pikachu face when they revolt in anger so they got the great idea to depopulate the nation over time to prevent themselves from being over thrown. Only problem is that they will become weaker as a result, which means fun times when the time is right for there enemies of which due to there greedy actions, there are bound to be many. The USA seems to fail to realize that it is the people that drives the economy and the recovery from a recession, not the wealthy, hence a recession/depression is only a matter of time.

 

[caudaceus]

Congress is going to be distracted on how much stimulus they'll want lol, as well as other petty political fights and showmanship. Besides, there are still internal party fights even if one party comes to control both the House, Senate, and the White House. And even then, there's no guarantee that say, the Democrats will have control over the federal government for a whole 4 years, so that even if a coherent, strategic, fully-fleshed-out anti-China approach is initiated, that it will also be both formulated and executed without being sidetracked by partisan battles later on.

I'm thinking congress might play something like this.

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But this is quite a nuclear option though.

 

[j17wang]

I think something which has been overlooked is that while the US would like to decouple from China, it is difficult to do that without lack of meaningful alternatives for manufacturing supply chains. Here is my analysis of what previously were widely quoted as an alliance of countries being reasonable alternatives to China:

Turkey - basically have gone hard against the west, and no longer an ally and might even be expelled from NATO
Thailand - structural issues with protests against monarchy mean that its a less stable and capable market than China when it comes to manufacturing
Vietnam - stable, could be used as reasonable alternative to china
India - less stable than it was 5 years ago, largely because Modi's policies have been well-intentioned but brash (i.e. by banning certain dollar bills overnight a few years back, providing a few hours notice before implementing a nationwide lockdown), also their recovery from COVID will take longer than expected
Indonesia - stability is again an issue, western firms may be reluctant to invest

Being realistic, China should expect to lose certain export sales to Vietnam and later India, but this will likely happen around 2022 at the earliest. I assume 10% of china's existing exports could probably shift to vietnam, and maybe 20% to India, but at the other time Chinese export growth of EVs/drones/robotics will likely make up a significant shortfall. Either way, China's exports as a % of GDP will continue to fall, which in all respects is a very good thing to maintain china's national resiliency.

China has time to manage the decoupling, which will occur. Its already starting to be pro-active in building factories directly in these countries (except India) so that some export margins are not lost.

 

[caudaceus]

I think something which has been overlooked is that while the US would like to decouple from China, it is difficult to do that without lack of meaningful alternatives for manufacturing supply chains. Here is my analysis of what previously were widely quoted as an alliance of countries being reasonable alternatives to China:

Turkey - basically have gone hard against the west, and no longer an ally and might even be expelled from NATO
Thailand - structural issues with protests against monarchy mean that its a less stable and capable market than China when it comes to manufacturing
Vietnam - stable, could be used as reasonable alternative to china
India - less stable than it was 5 years ago, largely because Modi's policies have been well-intentioned but brash (i.e. by banning certain dollar bills overnight a few years back, providing a few hours notice before implementing a nationwide lockdown), also their recovery from COVID will take longer than expected
Indonesia - stability is again an issue, western firms may be reluctant to invest

Being realistic, China should expect to lose certain export sales to Vietnam and later India, but this will likely happen around 2022 at the earliest. I assume 10% of china's existing exports could probably shift to vietnam, and maybe 20% to India, but at the other time Chinese export growth of EVs/drones/robotics will likely make up a significant shortfall. Either way, China's exports as a % of GDP will continue to fall, which in all respects is a very good thing to maintain china's national resiliency.

China has time to manage the decoupling, which will occur. Its already starting to be pro-active in building factories directly in these countries (except India) so that some export margins are not lost.

Mexico? Or Latin America?

Also consider that if Vietnam or South East Asia got the supply chain, they'll get richer and will also trade more with China. Remember that ASEAN biggest trade partner is China.