News on China's scientific and technological development.
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Independence is not the problem. Anyone can be "fully independent." North Korea can be fully independent.
But China won't have the most advanced fabs due to these sanctions.
SMIC will lose foreign customers, and will lose proportionately more revenue than US fab companies.
Thus China's semiconductor industry will lose proportionately more R&D.
Meanwhile most of the Chinese economy will continue to buy from US suppliers because those are the only ones on the cutting edge.
No it won’t. A Biden win could mean a truce on the trade war, but a continuation of the tech war
That’s the best possible outcome of a Biden win.
US/China relationship has changed forever. There is no going back no matter who wins.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
China didn't have the most advanced fabs to being with; they have to develop them. Fully independent and cutting edge is what China is aiming for and there is no reason that China will not get there. If you have a good idea, the Chinese government will fund it; there is no need to be stuck with a catch 22 of not having the funds to develop but needing to be developed to get fund. If the idea is there, China will provide fuel.
At this point, it's understood that buying American is a stop-gap. Nobody in China trusts American tech or suppliers anymore and nobody can accept it as a long-term solution.
hi gadgetcool5
What SMIC gain is a big one....HUAWEI. in the next few years XIAOMI, VIVO AND OTHERS in other words all the chinese tech company
But looks like Trump is a better politician than Biden, and there is an even chance that he will win the presidential race. With Trump in the second term, more restrictions on technology sales China is in order. The Chinese need not do anything to suppress American companies in China. Trump would cede American market share in China to Chinese companies and help China build-up the semi-conductor supply chain.
That is not accurate.
You assume that Chinese companies will rely on sales revenue to fund R&D into semiconductors.
What the technology war on China has created is a huge market for semiconductors developed and manufactured without any US technology.
So R&D spending for Chinese semiconductors will come from the government and venture capital, not from sales revenue.
This funding will be looking at timeframes over 5 years where operating losses are fully expected.
For example, Amazon made losses for 14 years, but there was no loss of faith because everyone knew they were going to have a huge amount of sales and profits in the future. Amazon are now worth $1570 Billion.
Other examples include Uber, Didi, Alibaba, Tencent, Facebook, Tesla, SpaceX etc
So I am absolutely confident in saying that in 10 years time, China will have a huge domestic market for semiconductor products with zero US technology content.
As I said before, the US technology war is a stupid short-term move.
That is right. Let Uncle Sam cede market share in China so that a virtuous cycle can begin in China where rising profits can be plough back for R&D to further improve design efficiency and sales which further increase profit.
You guys keep assuming that this guy is Portuguese, I tried to challenge him and he didn't answer. Spanish and Portuguese understand each other almost perfectly (at least when we write), the fact that he didn't answer indicates there is a very high possibility that this guy is just some troll. I guess he must be Indian, only Indians have so much free time