SMIC 14nm tech using ASML, have US input technology. If SMIC sanction, very tough to SMIC run the production. That's why SMIC struggling to get 14nm lithography machine. We not talking about EUV will not see the light in SMIC.
Im not worrying much about Huawei. Its seem they already given clue on Huawei connect 2020. If things right on track their business will usual at the end of next year. Furthermore Huawei also involved with self driving car that's huge market. Since Intel and Amd get license to sold product to Huawei, consumer business except mobile phone not affected.
SMIC is different, they using US input equipment to many. Replacement it will takes money and times. And SMIC is listed company while Huawei is private company. Huawei does have flexibility in making decisions compare to SMIC. If worst case scenarios thats huawei need money they can listed and boost hundred billion from stock exchange.
Hi mderfox,
Welcome to SDF, since you are new here allow me to repost WTAN comment for your perusal
ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,
will this affect SMIC operation? What about technical personnel, will SMIC able to hire local technician to able to operated this foreign equipment if ASML and others leaves?
I think SMIC should be able to operate the FABS normally as they have technicians that have already been trained by ASML and other companies. They will continue to produce Chips till the equipment breaks down or runs out of parts.
But remember that the new SMEE 28nm Litho is ready by the end of the year and this will take over from the ASML equipment. The equipment from Naura ,North Industries and CETC are all fairly advanced as well and can be used as replacements for the equipment from LAM, KLA Tencor etc.
ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,
If the sanction on SMIC do happen, what will their course of action will be, suing is out of the question? what about their operations? can they replace their critical equipment with domestic one, pieces by pieces so that it wont impede operation? or all at once, sorry for the stupid question, from what I learned from KYli, localizer and you, is that its a complex process, one missing pieces will derail the whole process.
Actually, even if Trump does not go ahead to sanction SMIC, the damage has already been done. Chinese FABs will find it too risky to buy American equipment. The next President might just finish what Trump did not do. This is bad news for all American equipment manufacturers as well as Japanese and European.
I have done some analysis and i conclude that SMIC will not be affected much at all by this American sanctions. Remember that the SMIC 14nm Chip production business only makes up a small amount of revenue for SMIC. If i can recall only 2-5% of SMIC total revenue. Can someone please find this article?
Most of SMIC revenue comes from sales of Chips 22nm/28nm and above.
Worse case scenario the 14nm FAB will be shut down.
The other FABs can switch over to using the SMEE 45nm Immersion Lithograph and also the new 28nm Immersion Lithograph. As i have said, China already has produced a localised 28nm production line which can be used to replace the foreign equipment. Reconditioned equipment can also be used with spares provided by local companies.
The sanctions will only affect SMICs 14nm and future 7nm Chip plans. But plans are underway to address the production of 14nm and 7nm using the new 28nm Immersion Lithograph.
SMIC will survive this and come out stronger.
Also if SMIC is sanctioned, it can continue to produce 14nm Chips for Huawei 5g Base Stations and Mid Range Mobile Phones.
