Ladakh Flash Point

[tamsen_ikard]

But there's a limit to propaganda. At some point the masses will realize their priorities.

Considering the mood in the Indian public. They will not realize for the next few years no matter how bad the situation gets. Indian public is extremely happy that Modi is going after muslims and appear tough and bold in many places. They don't care whether those policies are working or not. They are not as pragmatic as the Chinese when it comes to government. India is a deeply ideological place.


In fact, even if China and India starts a full-scale war, and India loses badly, Modi will still be popular for the next few years. The media is entirely pro-Modi and will spin Indian defeat into heroism of the Army by making up high Chinese casualty figures. They will say China got a bloody nose despite winning. Indian public will lap it up.

Indian public mood right is similar to how China was during the cultural revolution. A deeply emotional and ideological place where pragmatism and facts have no place only ideological purity is important. Someday this frenzy will break for sure and there will be a lot of shame and sadness. But that time is still a few years away.

 

[localizer]

Heard from multiple Indian co-workers who have family in India that the COVID situation in India is significantly more dire than the public data shows and how the Indian media currently portrays it. A combination of poor hygiene, inadequate healthcare system and corruption is causing COVID to spread like wildfire, especially in rural areas. No one knows what the true infection / death rate is because rural areas are unaccounted for.

Considering the mood in the Indian public. They will not realize for the next few years no matter how bad the situation gets. Indian public is extremely happy that Modi is going after muslims and appear tough and bold in many places. They don't care whether those policies are working or not. They are not as pragmatic as the Chinese when it comes to government. India is a deeply ideological place.


In fact, even if China and India starts a full-scale war, and India loses badly, Modi will still be popular for the next few years. The media is entirely pro-Modi and will spin Indian defeat into heroism of the Army by making up high Chinese casualty figures. They will say China got a bloody nose despite winning. Indian public will lap it up.

Indian public mood right is similar to how China was during the cultural revolution. A deeply emotional and ideological place where pragmatism and facts have no place only ideological purity is important. Someday this frenzy will break for sure and there will be a lot of shame and sadness. But that time is still a few years away.

If their propaganda is strong enough to get them through COVID, then they're not better than North Korea.

 

[KYli]

But there's a limit to propaganda. At some point the masses will realize their priorities.

I don't disagree but it might take a few years for them to realize that they are suckers for falling for Modi's bad policy and propaganda. A daily coronavirus cases of 100,000 and over 7% positive rate don't seem to scare the Indians a bit. India might be on the road of herd immunity before the vaccine is fully ready.

 

[Temstar]

Big update.

Note: 300 Indians were taken captive.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303774264131293184

I'm seeing this rumour on cjdby too, uttered in a very hush hush manner. 300 Indians taken alive, euphemism for it is 包饺子, or "folding dumplings".

 

[Temstar]

Here's another different person talking about 300 dumplings. In all cases it's mentioned that they have been returned to India.

 

[Sardaukar20]

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apparently india is now toning it down...

No, unfortunately its more of just the same. How many meetings did Jaishankar and Rajnath Singh had with their Chinese counterparts since June? And here we are: having Indian Army troops shooting at PLA troops in Sept.

Their diplomacy is farcical. They pretend to meet. Then on another day, India provokes China yet again. Whether through border skirmishes, boycott China, or "Free Tibet". They are sleepwalking India into war with China. I'm just not sure if they will actually wake up.

 

[AZaz09dude]

If Ruser is right about this, then the Indian positions closer to the south bank of Pangong arent very "dominant" all

Either the PLA beat them to the heights, or they drove them out...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303913984479752193

 

[Figaro]

A reliable Indian defense analyst and journalist with insider connections to the IA has confirmed that Black Top and Helmet still remain in Chinese control. He was also one of the first to break the details of the Indian operation last week to occupy some vacant hills on its side of the LAC.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303612729551253505

If Ruser is right about this, then the Indian positions closer to the south bank of Pangong arent very "dominant" all

Either the PLA beat them to the heights, or they drove them out...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303913984479752193

More satellite evidence of what I wrote above

 

[Deleted member 14819]

You do have a point in comparing the Sino-Vietnam conflicts to the Sino-Indian conflicts. There are some parallel circumstances. However, there are also some major differences:

1) Vietnam does not have nuclear weapons. India does, but its under the control of BJP madmen. That's that added danger. So China's nuclear forces would have to get involved if India goes nuclear.
2) Every one Vietnamese soldier is worth 10 Indian soldiers. These guys still know how to fight a war. A Vietnamese soldier will not run away from a superior enemy. But Indian soldiers have proven to have done it time and time again. I would respect the Vietnamese soldier 100 times more than the Indian soldier.
3) Vietnam knows its no match for China, so it decides to manage China and play the long game of building its economy. A wealthy Vietnam in the future could become a genuine threat to China. India, OTOH thinks its already a superpower, so it embarks on idiotic policies, pretty much condemning itself to the middle income trap.
4) Vietnam does not have the same standing as India in the eyes of the Western world. They do not enjoy the 'darling' status in the Free World" because they are still "Communists". The US is just manipulating them just like how it manipulated China against the Soviets in the past. I think the Vietnamese govt knows this. But the Indian BJP government is too stupid to know it.
5) The Vietnamese govt are far more competent than the idiotic BJP Indian govt. Look at the Covid-19 handling in these two countries. Day and night. The Vietnamese economy is doing far better than the Indian economy. They could genuinely attract foreign manufacturing while India's 'Make In India' campaign is an abysmal failure.
6) Vietnam has only one nemesis: China. But India has 2 nemesis: Pakistan and China. In time India's list of nemesis is only gonna grow with all the stupid foreign policy its playing.

So China's management of India could follow the many of same rules as it did with Vietnam. But unlike Vietnam, China can form a coalition against India to ease the military burden. And India's own self-sabotaging actions are only going to help China's cause to suppress the Indian challenge.

Don't forget that vietnam had been at war continuously. Ravaged home and economy. Their people fought like they had nothing to lose but their lives. What does india has to lose if it chooses to start a war? Everything. India is developing country and a major economic power. Was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It has everything to lose.

 

[plawolf]

Right now India’s biggest asset is their own sheer incompetence.

China does not want a war with India because India is no threat despite its worst intentions towards China. Nor does China care to actively sabotage India’s economy as both those actions would play into the hands of the China-threat crowd in the west and a hot war would tie down Chinese assets and use up munitions China might need in the east if America and/or Taiwan does something stupid. China would also want to keep its own strategic options open in terms of Taiwan in case an opportunity arises for reunification

Chinese longer term Indian containment strategy is to build Pakistan up economically so that once the extra funding filter through to Pakistani defence spending (Maybe with a little help from China in the form of soft loans or even military aid outright) Pakistan would be enough to take on India alone and win.

Modi knows this, which is why he thinks he has a lot of room for brinksmanship to score cheap political points back home.

Chinese strategy is primarily geared towards dissuading him, as Indian probing requires PLA responses, and China doesn’t want to haul huge numbers of troops and supplies across the country every time Modi needs some political capital or to distract from his own screw ups domestically.

China may be at a point where it feels limited military action is needed to remind Modi that this isn’t risk or consequence free game he is playing.

But China and India operate in entirely different scales. For India, military acting, sorry, I mean action might mean dropping a few bombs from across the boarder on some trees; but China doesn’t mess around, barring spontaneous stuff like firefights between patrols, a Chinese military message would be on the 62 scale, where the PLA would sweep all before it until there are no frontline Indian forces worth fighting left. Then it would declare a unilateral ceasefire and dare the Indians to start the shooting again.

But the thing to remember is that even an operation on that scale is just a message from China’s POV.