Ladakh Flash Point

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EdgeOfEcho

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't see why the border conflict with India must end in a timely fashion. I feel like the current Indian situation draws a lot in parallel to the Vietnam situation back in 1979.

Here is my reasoning.
1. After winning the Vietnam War, Vietnam became the prominent political and military figure in South East Asia, and they began to expand their influences (like invading Cambodia). Due to historical and geopolitical reasons, Vietnamese harbor deep mistrust to the Chinese, so they quickly became hostile towards the Chinese after the Vietnam war, even though China provided them with a lot of support. This is very much like India today. India wants to become a superpower, they have been actively engaging in border conflicts with all of their neighbors and they have a fixation on China.

The first main point is, much like Vietnam, India today has China as their top one adversary. Furthermore, both India and Vietnam had the aspiration to become the dominant political and military figure in their respective area, this is likely the key reason why they want to challenge and confront China.

2. Vietnam had the audacity to challenge China and the countries nearby because they believe they had Soviet support. Much like India currently, which believes the US and the West will back them up. Both countries believe that their key geopolitical standing grants them this vital importance at a global stage.

The second point is, India and Vietnam, both being weaker countries on all aspects compared to China, dare to seriously challenge China because they felt like they had the backing of a superpower.

3. Like India, Vietnam has had on-going border conflicts with China for many years, and skirmishes have been fought often. This is not only true on land, but also in the sea. China and Vietnam has fought 2 major conflicts in the Sough China sea in the past.

The third point is, Vietnam, very much like India, bet that China's main focus is on developing the economy, so they dare to challenge China on areas that are not of essential focus. Like in remote areas in the South China sea in the 70s and 80s, or borders in Yunnan. They believe little gains and accumulate over time, and as long as they keep the intensity low enough, China will not and can not respond in a serious manner.

How did China deal with Vietnam back in 1979? Well, a month long campaign was fought in 1979. When Vietnam was busy dealing with changing regimes in Cambodia, PLA attacked and obliterated the Vietnamese defense. Within 1 month, the PLA reached about 150km outside of Hanoi then retreated back to China; they devastated all industrial, agricultural, and economic facilities along the way. This is not the end, China then fought a decade long border war with Vietnam, lasting into the 90s. Soviet Union never helped Vietnam by fighting China, they only send supplies and arms to Vietnam. Without Soviet support, Vietnam finally signed peace deals with China and the fighting finally stopped.

Now why would they drag out this conflict for over 10 years? Because Yunnan province, which borders Vietnam, is not of vital economic concern, but Vietnam's Hanoi is close to this border. China can spent minimal effort fighting this war while developing its economy, while placing immense amount of pressure on Vietnam to build its military (Very much like what USSR did to China after Zhenbaodao incident). The end result is that China successfully became the manufacturing hub of the world, but Vietnam was only able to kick-start this process after the wars are finished, which was already too late. Those wars shaped the destiny of modern Vietnam. Today, Vietnam is still very poor, many farmers in Yunnan hire Vietnamese workers to do the harvesting, because no Chinese want to do so much manual labor with so little pay, but Vietnamese people would.

India today is at a very similar situation compared to Vietnam. Tibet is not a economic hub for China, fighting a war in the Himalayan will have even a lesser impact on Chinese economy compared to fighting on the borders of Yunnan. New Delhi is pretty close to the border as well, just like Hanoi, meaning that a long lasting conflict will be of vital concern for India. India's industrial capability is laughable, so a dragged out military conflict will mean that India will have to spend a significantly more amount of GDP buying necessary military equipment, thus straining its economy even more in addition to the pandemic. Finally, I seriously doubt the US will help out India during a war, the most the West will do is to sell expensive second hand military equipment to India when they can't build anything for themselves.

If PLA launches a major assault on Indian positions like 1962 before winter comes and immediately retreats, the front line Indian troops will be devastated, and India will be pressured to spend even more money and resources maintaining a significant military presence should the PLA try the same thing again. Then, the warmongering sentiment from the Indian public will most likely pressure the Modi government to counter attack, and since PLA basically get to control how the war can progress, PLA can just simply decide to keep this low intensity conflict going by never invading into India but keep fighting them in the Himalayan hills and never let them catch a break. If this can keep going for years, India will be bled dry, and if they are smart enough, will come back to the negotiation table to talk.

What do you guys think? (I seriously doubt dealing with India will require the PLA to compromise a significant number of its forces from Taiwan, because from what I've read, in 1979, the best equipped PLA troops were stationed in the North preventing a USSR assault and the 2nd tier units were the ones leading the attack into Vietnam.)
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
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India is really getting ahead of itself. I am seeing more and more articles like this discussing how India can lead the world to break China apart. Just look at the map presented in that garbage. Shows how deluded the Indian media is getting.

View attachment 63355

India is starting to play the Tibet card with China. There are many of these deluded Indian articles urging India to support the "young Tibetan people" to rise up against China. Even the two-faced SCMP have an article that is somewhat sympathetic for these exiled-Tibetans. I anticipate that India's support of the "Free Tibet" movement would be also quite celebrated in the "Free World".

Its not just the media, its a state policy. India publicly used the SFF in the late-August offensive. Then some SFF terrorists were killed either through PLA action, or more likely by Indian friendly fire or mines. After that, there was an explosion of "Free Tibet" fever in India. During the funerals of those dead SFF members, there were "Free Tibet" flags and Indian flags flying everywhere. Even BJP's Ram Madhav is at the funeral.

View attachment 63357

I say this is the clearest Indian provocation of the One-China policy. India have indeed crossed China's red-line. It is likely that in the longer term, India will really play Tibet card on China. Just like how it had played the Balochistan card on Pakistan. India could unleash more SFF terrorists to try to kill PLA forces instead of having the Indian troops do it themselves, giving them plausible deniability. While at the same time support 'Tibetan uprisings' in China with the full blessing of the West. Its part of their old "Hybrid War" trick.

India is going to find out the hard way, just how wrong it is about the Tibetans in China. Their "Tibetans in exile"are not going to receive a hero's welcomed in Tibet. These Tibetans are descendants of former slave-owners, and are justly living their life of misery in India. While the decedents of liberated serfs in China live a far more prosperous life in China.

While China is helping the Tibetans restore an old Tibetan Thangka art that has been lost for more than 500 years. India is terrorizing the population of Kashmir with mass imprisonment, extrajudicial killings, tortures, and rapes. You just cannot emphasize enough the level of Indian hypocrisy and depravity.

If India really does go ahead with this effort to split China apart, they will suffer one hell of a reckoning. China can turn the tables on them very quickly and viciously. Not only will the Indian troops be decimated by the PLA on the border, they could also face internal rebellion in Kashmir and Nagaland backed by Pakistan and China. India does not have the military and economy to face this kind of war. Soon, the military materiel would deplete. And their military funds would dry up with all the arms imports and corruption. Then, India is going to be in real trouble.



China should do guerilla warfare with ATGMs, MANPADs, and snipers.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't see why the border conflict with India must end in a timely fashion. I feel like the current Indian situation draws a lot in parallel to the Vietnam situation back in 1979.

Here is my reasoning.
1. After winning the Vietnam War, Vietnam became the prominent political and military figure in South East Asia, and they began to expand their influences (like invading Cambodia). Due to historical and geopolitical reasons, Vietnamese harbor deep mistrust to the Chinese, so they quickly became hostile towards the Chinese after the Vietnam war, even though China provided them with a lot of support. This is very much like India today. India wants to become a superpower, they have been actively engaging in border conflicts with all of their neighbors and they have a fixation on China.

The first main point is, much like Vietnam, India today has China as their top one adversary. Furthermore, both India and Vietnam had the aspiration to become the dominant political and military figure in their respective area, this is likely the key reason why they want to challenge and confront China.

2. Vietnam had the audacity to challenge China and the countries nearby because they believe they had Soviet support. Much like India currently, which believes the US and the West will back them up. Both countries believe that their key geopolitical standing grants them this vital importance at a global stage.

The second point is, India and Vietnam, both being weaker countries on all aspects compared to China, dare to seriously challenge China because they felt like they had the backing of a superpower.

3. Like India, Vietnam has had on-going border conflicts with China for many years, and skirmishes have been fought often. This is not only true on land, but also in the sea. China and Vietnam has fought 2 major conflicts in the Sough China sea in the past.

The third point is, Vietnam, very much like India, bet that China's main focus is on developing the economy, so they dare to challenge China on areas that are not of essential focus. Like in remote areas in the South China sea in the 70s and 80s, or borders in Yunnan. They believe little gains and accumulate over time, and as long as they keep the intensity low enough, China will not and can not respond in a serious manner.

How did China deal with Vietnam back in 1979? Well, a month long campaign was fought in 1979. When Vietnam was busy dealing with changing regimes in Cambodia, PLA attacked and obliterated the Vietnamese defense. Within 1 month, the PLA reached about 150km outside of Hanoi then retreated back to China; they devastated all industrial, agricultural, and economic facilities along the way. This is not the end, China then fought a decade long border war with Vietnam, lasting into the 90s. Soviet Union never helped Vietnam by fighting China, they only send supplies and arms to Vietnam. Without Soviet support, Vietnam finally signed peace deals with China and the fighting finally stopped.

Now why would they drag out this conflict for over 10 years? Because Yunnan province, which borders Vietnam, is not of vital economic concern, but Vietnam's Hanoi is close to this border. China can spent minimal effort fighting this war while developing its economy, while placing immense amount of pressure on Vietnam to build its military (Very much like what USSR did to China after Zhenbaodao incident). The end result is that China successfully became the manufacturing hub of the world, but Vietnam was only able to kick-start this process after the wars are finished, which was already too late. Those wars shaped the destiny of modern Vietnam. Today, Vietnam is still very poor, many farmers in Yunnan hire Vietnamese workers to do the harvesting, because no Chinese want to do so much manual labor with so little pay, but Vietnamese people would.

India today is at a very similar situation compared to Vietnam. Tibet is not a economic hub for China, fighting a war in the Himalayan will have even a lesser impact on Chinese economy compared to fighting on the borders of Yunnan. New Delhi is pretty close to the border as well, just like Hanoi, meaning that a long lasting conflict will be of vital concern for India. India's industrial capability is laughable, so a dragged out military conflict will mean that India will have to spend a significantly more amount of GDP buying necessary military equipment, thus straining its economy even more in addition to the pandemic. Finally, I seriously doubt the US will help out India during a war, the most the West will do is to sell expensive second hand military equipment to India when they can't build anything for themselves.

If PLA launches a major assault on Indian positions like 1962 before winter comes and immediately retreats, the front line Indian troops will be devastated, and India will be pressured to spend even more money and resources maintaining a significant military presence should the PLA try the same thing again. Then, the warmongering sentiment from the Indian public will most likely pressure the Modi government to counter attack, and since PLA basically get to control how the war can progress, PLA can just simply decide to keep this low intensity conflict going by never invading into India but keep fighting them in the Himalayan hills and never let them catch a break. If this can keep going for years, India will be bled dry, and if they are smart enough, will come back to the negotiation table to talk.

What do you guys think? (I seriously doubt dealing with India will require the PLA to compromise a significant number of its forces from Taiwan, because from what I've read, in 1979, the best equipped PLA troops were stationed in the North preventing a USSR assault and the 2nd tier units were the ones leading the attack into Vietnam.)
Yes, that is what I was thinking is happening. The way the Chinese fight this war is with canons, rocket artillery. The way the Indians do it is with manpower. Already 200K men are now stationed at Lahda. To keep these people fed and housed cost 1/6 of the military budget. That is just the cost before the shooting. A low intensity war will cost them significantly more. Imagine if canon barrage takes out the 80 tanks on the Indian side, or if the Chinese takes out the amo and supply depots near that area. Months of trucks delivery gone up in smoke. How would 200K men make it through the winter?
If the Chinese give the Indians a good beating, this will allow them to have a reason to retreat. However, if the Chinese fight them without clearly winning, 200K men will have to station there over the winter. They may have to bring even more reinforcement. If the Indians wanted to fight, the Chinese can drag the Indian side into a very high cost siege or a low intensity war that don't have any clear winner. With their economy dropping by 1/4 due to Covid, it is clearly not a good thing for India. As long as the Chinese keep the cost down on their side, it could eventually lead to the collapse of the Indian economy.
 

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
I don't see why the border conflict with India must end in a timely fashion. I feel like the current Indian situation draws a lot in parallel to the Vietnam situation back in 1979.

Here is my reasoning.
1. After winning the Vietnam War, Vietnam became the prominent political and military figure in South East Asia, and they began to expand their influences (like invading Cambodia). Due to historical and geopolitical reasons, Vietnamese harbor deep mistrust to the Chinese, so they quickly became hostile towards the Chinese after the Vietnam war, even though China provided them with a lot of support. This is very much like India today. India wants to become a superpower, they have been actively engaging in border conflicts with all of their neighbors and they have a fixation on China.

The first main point is, much like Vietnam, India today has China as their top one adversary. Furthermore, both India and Vietnam had the aspiration to become the dominant political and military figure in their respective area, this is likely the key reason why they want to challenge and confront China.

2. Vietnam had the audacity to challenge China and the countries nearby because they believe they had Soviet support. Much like India currently, which believes the US and the West will back them up. Both countries believe that their key geopolitical standing grants them this vital importance at a global stage.

The second point is, India and Vietnam, both being weaker countries on all aspects compared to China, dare to seriously challenge China because they felt like they had the backing of a superpower.

3. Like India, Vietnam has had on-going border conflicts with China for many years, and skirmishes have been fought often. This is not only true on land, but also in the sea. China and Vietnam has fought 2 major conflicts in the Sough China sea in the past.

The third point is, Vietnam, very much like India, bet that China's main focus is on developing the economy, so they dare to challenge China on areas that are not of essential focus. Like in remote areas in the South China sea in the 70s and 80s, or borders in Yunnan. They believe little gains and accumulate over time, and as long as they keep the intensity low enough, China will not and can not respond in a serious manner.

How did China deal with Vietnam back in 1979? Well, a month long campaign was fought in 1979. When Vietnam was busy dealing with changing regimes in Cambodia, PLA attacked and obliterated the Vietnamese defense. Within 1 month, the PLA reached about 150km outside of Hanoi then retreated back to China; they devastated all industrial, agricultural, and economic facilities along the way. This is not the end, China then fought a decade long border war with Vietnam, lasting into the 90s. Soviet Union never helped Vietnam by fighting China, they only send supplies and arms to Vietnam. Without Soviet support, Vietnam finally signed peace deals with China and the fighting finally stopped.

Now why would they drag out this conflict for over 10 years? Because Yunnan province, which borders Vietnam, is not of vital economic concern, but Vietnam's Hanoi is close to this border. China can spent minimal effort fighting this war while developing its economy, while placing immense amount of pressure on Vietnam to build its military (Very much like what USSR did to China after Zhenbaodao incident). The end result is that China successfully became the manufacturing hub of the world, but Vietnam was only able to kick-start this process after the wars are finished, which was already too late. Those wars shaped the destiny of modern Vietnam. Today, Vietnam is still very poor, many farmers in Yunnan hire Vietnamese workers to do the harvesting, because no Chinese want to do so much manual labor with so little pay, but Vietnamese people would.

India today is at a very similar situation compared to Vietnam. Tibet is not a economic hub for China, fighting a war in the Himalayan will have even a lesser impact on Chinese economy compared to fighting on the borders of Yunnan. New Delhi is pretty close to the border as well, just like Hanoi, meaning that a long lasting conflict will be of vital concern for India. India's industrial capability is laughable, so a dragged out military conflict will mean that India will have to spend a significantly more amount of GDP buying necessary military equipment, thus straining its economy even more in addition to the pandemic. Finally, I seriously doubt the US will help out India during a war, the most the West will do is to sell expensive second hand military equipment to India when they can't build anything for themselves.

If PLA launches a major assault on Indian positions like 1962 before winter comes and immediately retreats, the front line Indian troops will be devastated, and India will be pressured to spend even more money and resources maintaining a significant military presence should the PLA try the same thing again. Then, the warmongering sentiment from the Indian public will most likely pressure the Modi government to counter attack, and since PLA basically get to control how the war can progress, PLA can just simply decide to keep this low intensity conflict going by never invading into India but keep fighting them in the Himalayan hills and never let them catch a break. If this can keep going for years, India will be bled dry, and if they are smart enough, will come back to the negotiation table to talk.

What do you guys think? (I seriously doubt dealing with India will require the PLA to compromise a significant number of its forces from Taiwan, because from what I've read, in 1979, the best equipped PLA troops were stationed in the North preventing a USSR assault and the 2nd tier units were the ones leading the attack into Vietnam.)
You do have a point in comparing the Sino-Vietnam conflicts to the Sino-Indian conflicts. There are some parallel circumstances. However, there are also some major differences:

1) Vietnam does not have nuclear weapons. India does, but its under the control of BJP madmen. That's that added danger. So China's nuclear forces would have to get involved if India goes nuclear.
2) Every one Vietnamese soldier is worth 10 Indian soldiers. These guys still know how to fight a war. A Vietnamese soldier will not run away from a superior enemy. But Indian soldiers have proven to have done it time and time again. I would respect the Vietnamese soldier 100 times more than the Indian soldier.
3) Vietnam knows its no match for China, so it decides to manage China and play the long game of building its economy. A wealthy Vietnam in the future could become a genuine threat to China. India, OTOH thinks its already a superpower, so it embarks on idiotic policies, pretty much condemning itself to the middle income trap.
4) Vietnam does not have the same standing as India in the eyes of the Western world. They do not enjoy the 'darling' status in the Free World" because they are still "Communists". The US is just manipulating them just like how it manipulated China against the Soviets in the past. I think the Vietnamese govt knows this. But the Indian BJP government is too stupid to know it.
5) The Vietnamese govt are far more competent than the idiotic BJP Indian govt. Look at the Covid-19 handling in these two countries. Day and night. The Vietnamese economy is doing far better than the Indian economy. They could genuinely attract foreign manufacturing while India's 'Make In India' campaign is an abysmal failure.
6) Vietnam has only one nemesis: China. But India has 2 nemesis: Pakistan and China. In time India's list of nemesis is only gonna grow with all the stupid foreign policy its playing.

So China's management of India could follow the many of same rules as it did with Vietnam. But unlike Vietnam, China can form a coalition against India to ease the military burden. And India's own self-sabotaging actions are only going to help China's cause to suppress the Indian challenge.
 

coolieno99

Junior Member
China doesn’t care about taking the high ground like India. India is still thinking small scale in terms of small arms fire, where they would have an advantage in having the high ground and overlooking PLA positions.

But the PLA doesn’t really care because as soon as the shooting actually starts, those Indian positions will be the first to be annihilated by PLA artillery. Only then will PLA soldiers move up unopposed.

The only reason the PLA would move in to occupy heights is to challenge and dislodge Indian attempts to encroach and entrench there. Once the Indians are driven off, the PLA tend to also withdraw their main force and only leave a small observation unit to act as early warning of the next Indian salami slice.
Good point, This is exactly what happened during the Vietnam War. When U.S. forces occupied a hill top, the NVA would just open artillery fire on them. And then the U.S. would have to leave the hill top with wasted casualties. Commanding high ground is meaningless in modern warfare. Even worse yet, if PLA deploy MRLS , the barrage would even be more devastatiing. There will be few or no survivors to be driven off.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Origin of the name Shenpao hill (where the firing took place).

神炮山的由来:骑兵第三团57无坐力炮排排长艾买提·托乎提指挥有方,发射炮弹28发,26发击中目标,摧毁地堡10座。战后,艾买提·托乎提记一等功,全排荣立集体二等功,被誉为神炮排。

During the 1962 war, soldiers of the 57th platoon under the command of an ethnic Uighur PLA platoon leader fired 28 recoilless rifle rounds at the mountain and 26 of them reached their respective targets. Ten enemy fortifications were destroyed. The platoon earned the name of “Divine Cannon Platoon” after the engagement. Shenpao is the Chinese phrase for divine cannon.
 
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