Ladakh Flash Point

[discspinner]

Oooooh if this is genuinely their government position, the CCP should call its bluff. But the CCP can only call its bluff if they are truly willing to go to war. Perfect opportunity. Some PLA soldiers will unfortunately have to pay the dearest price. I hope the PLA have their backs and go in with the full network although I think the chances are slim because the CCP wants some PLA bodies to show. It's going to look real bad if they are presented as having gone into India to kill scores of Indian soldiers and not lose any/many PLA. With fatalities the CCP can at least create some space for narrative shaping.

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There has been some confusion over whether PLA still controls Helmet and Black Top. Given the language used by Global Times past few days, I'm increasingly inclined to believe this may not be the case. After all, what could possibly have prompted a response that warranted warning shots to be fired on both sides.

Clearly, India is hoping to use these new positions as leverage to force China to return to the April 2020 status quo.

Here's my question. It should've been obvious to the PLA that these were critical locations that needed to be kept. Why were there no PLA troops at these points to begin with? 1. They did not anticipate such an Indian action and have thus been surprised. 2. They anticipated it, but were surprised. 3. They anticipated it, and was hoping it would happen so they have justification to use lethal force. 4. They anticipated it and don't care, since these heights are far less important strategically than the areas the PLA have gained in Galwan and Depsang, and China needed to give India some sort of victory as a face saving gesture.

 

[ougoah]

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There has been some confusion over whether PLA still controls Helmet and Black Top. Given the language used by Global Times past few days, I'm increasingly inclined to believe this may not be the case. After all, what could possibly have prompted a response that warranted warning shots to be fired on both sides.

Clearly, India is hoping to use these new positions as leverage to force China to return to the April 2020 status quo.

Here's my question. It should've been obvious to the PLA that these were critical locations that needed to be kept. Why were there no PLA troops at these points to begin with? 1. They did not anticipate such an Indian action and have thus been surprised. 2. They anticipated it, but were surprised. 3. They anticipated it, and was hoping it would happen so they have justification to use lethal force. 4. They anticipated it and don't care, since these heights are far less important strategically than the areas the PLA have gained in Galwan and Depsang, and China needed to give India some sort of victory as a face saving gesture.

If India currently does occupy and control Black and Helmet after this week's alleged confrontations, they are almost certainly looking for a trade or at least will negotiate with material. PLA letting it slip shows they have limited value because an Indian capture for negotiation of northern lands is again a predictable move. Allowing it would be either a total screw up by PLA or due to indifference which means these mountaintops do not have strategic value and will not be negotiated for northern parts.

There's also the possibility the PLA will attack either by starting the shooting or without lethal force. Although I think the chances of the latter working is slim to none.

If India doesn't/did not occupy and control these two mountaintops at any time or no longer do after this week's clash, then this piece of news ought to be ignored when considering the political posturing on both sides. Both certainly know the reality of what actually is and will act according to those. The news articles are for publicity. Not sure how reputable this retired general but all of this sound like new developments.

 

[Sardaukar20]

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Quite the change in tone hmmmm? India on the defensive now.

It sounds like more of the same Indian media BS. It's always China's fault. It's always China who crossed the line. It's always China who threw the first blows or fired the first shots. It's always big bad China trying to grab 'Indian' territories.

But reality is that everything India accused China of starting, is actually its own doing. If China 'took some heights' its actually Indian troops invading and sitting on Chinese territories before getting chased out by the PLA. If China started the shooting, it's actually the dumb Jawans who started firing their rifles at the PLA.

The next time Indian troops occupy Chinese territories, China must show some drone footage of these monkeys. Then give them a 12 hour notice to get out, or get blown out.

If these Indian troops refuses and shoots at the PLA again, record it on drone footage, then make an example out of them.

If India does not back down and sends in the big guns. Then the war starts. And China can finally give them annihilation they so deserved.

As Pravin Sawhney tweeted before, India never issues a declaration of war when it starts any one. So China must assume that war with India can happen seamlessly from any one skirmish.

 

[j818cm]

The only way India will not be ripping its own shirt off with fake news twisting actualities and celebrating non victories would be if China completely annihilated it. There is no such thing as Indians giving China face. Even in utter defeat that was proven to them, they will call it the other way around. Unless you kill the guy, this guy will continue shouting Jai Hind and the usual nonsense. China has so far been VERY kind to India's face while brutalising their soldiers. China doesn't really want to show how Indians end up and India wants to hide everything that makes it look even remotely bad. Check out how sensitive Indians are to the slightest online expression of doubt, even gentle criticism is reacted to with violent rage and a slew of fake bullshit from bhakts. China gets criticised for things that are nuanced or totally untrue nonstop and Chinese carry on like we have for centuries.

There is no disengaging while saving face. Any PLA disengaging the Indians will shout about even when the terms and nuance favour China or the details of disengagement should humiliate Indians. CCP will have to keep this annoying status up, go to war and end it convincingly, or disengage on its own terms but totally lose face as any disengagement will be considered 100% success victory to Jai Hind.

Mate we're talking about a people who call a crashed lunar lander a 99% mission success. These people celebrate the humiliating return of one of their shot down pilots with parties on the streets attended by MILLIONS of jai hinds. Their emotional instability is unrivaled on this planet. Nixon called them ugly, but Kissinger's cuts are deeper - "a scavenging people. Total suck ups".

Mommy told me not to watch too many movies not english but everyone understands
In fact the whole world knows why indians are like this，it’s really pathetic

 

[Cuthalin]

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There has been some confusion over whether PLA still controls Helmet and Black Top. Given the language used by Global Times past few days, I'm increasingly inclined to believe this may not be the case. After all, what could possibly have prompted a response that warranted warning shots to be fired on both sides.

Clearly, India is hoping to use these new positions as leverage to force China to return to the April 2020 status quo.

Here's my question. It should've been obvious to the PLA that these were critical locations that needed to be kept. Why were there no PLA troops at these points to begin with? 1. They did not anticipate such an Indian action and have thus been surprised. 2. They anticipated it, but were surprised. 3. They anticipated it, and was hoping it would happen so they have justification to use lethal force. 4. They anticipated it and don't care, since these heights are far less important strategically than the areas the PLA have gained in Galwan and Depsang, and China needed to give India some sort of victory as a face saving gesture.

Or that Black Top is simply an untenable position that cannot be permanently stationed, which is why the like 9 PLA gave their non-permanent patrol station up as they see 500 Indians advancing towards them.
Knowing india, it is totally plausible that it merely expelled a token garrison with a battalion just to give its fake news something to talk about.

 

[Mohsin77]

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Quite the change in tone hmmmm? India on the defensive now.

The setting up of "barbed wire" fences by the Indians is telling. It reminds me of something that Sawhney said regarding the LOC (India has also set up fences on its side, but Pakistan has not): Armies which are geared for maneuver warfare do not set up fences. They do not box themselves in a defensive posture.

It shows strategic intent as well. India claims all of Kashmir, Ladakh and Aksai Chin, but by setting up 'fences' on its incomplete territorial claims (along the LOC and LAC), it is signalling that it has basically ceded that territory and has no intention of getting back the land it has already lost. On the other hand, the posture of its opponents is not defensive, but geared for combined arms maneuver warfare, until they get the rest of what they want.

 

[plawolf]

China doesn’t care about taking the high ground like India. India is still thinking small scale in terms of small arms fire, where they would have an advantage in having the high ground and overlooking PLA positions.

But the PLA doesn’t really care because as soon as the shooting actually starts, those Indian positions will be the first to be annihilated by PLA artillery. Only then will PLA soldiers move up unopposed.

The only reason the PLA would move in to occupy heights is to challenge and dislodge Indian attempts to encroach and entrench there. Once the Indians are driven off, the PLA tend to also withdraw their main force and only leave a small observation unit to act as early warning of the next Indian salami slice.

 

[Mohican Master]

Indian troops capture highest heights on Finger 4 of Pangong Tso:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303708168170557441

 

[Mohican Master]

The setting up of "barbed wire" fences by the Indians is telling. It reminds me of something that Sawhney said regarding the LOC (India has also set up fences on its side, but Pakistan has not): Armies which are geared for maneuver warfare do not set up fences. They do not box themselves in a defensive posture.

It shows strategic intent as well. India claims all of Kashmir, Ladakh and Aksai Chin, but by setting up 'fences' on its incomplete territorial claims (along the LOC and LAC), it is signalling that it has basically ceded that territory and has no intention of getting back the land it has already lost. On the other hand, the posture of its opponents is not defensive, but geared for combined arms maneuver warfare, until they get the rest of what they want.

Actually in all the places on LoC suitable for manuever warfare do not have fences especially Neelum..

 

[Mohsin77]

Actually in all the places on LoC suitable for manuever warfare do not have fences especially Neelum..

Maneuvering happens in all terrain, it just depends on the type of units (light infantry, heavy armor etc.) Refer to Sahwney's analysis in his videos, the Indian army does not even train for maneuver warfare with the IAF. All of its focus is on defensive holding operations and COIN, since the insurgency in Kashmir began in the 90s.