Ladakh Flash Point
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There are no easy solutions to the "Indian salami slicing". But PLA punishments inflicted on the Indians up to this point are not having the desired deterrence effect.
Now that Indian troops have indeed stupidly used firearms on PLA forces. The PLA should no longer have to use manpower intensive melee combat formations. Now the PLA can and should use force multipliers like guns, artillery, armed drones, etc to ease its manpower burden on the Western front.
But China still cannot rule out an all-out war with India. India will strike when an opportunity presents. Such as wars over Taiwan or the SCS. So for the longer term, the WTC must be bolstered by fresh recruits and materials.
Honestly I'm also caught up in the dichotomy of CCP being some super cunning, millenia planning master manipulator and some incompetent mix of "proletariats" who are just looking after their own wallets. But even considering ignoring their successes and considering this issue in isolation, it is simply too easy to look this far. The only thing they may not have expected is how timid the Indian response was.
No matter how stupid and disorganised we believe the CCP is, they cannot possibly be incompetent enough to have not already considered all the likely outcomes until today. It just varies according to actual Indian responses but so far, we've seen nothing unpredictable. Again the most unpredictable thing was India's inaction on the ground. Banning apps for some economic blow, making a fuss, propaganda/information warfare... all of this was probably expected. So my personal assumption is that all this serves some less obvious plan. It could be to create huge military presence right on the border with India and Kashmir (we're not talking just moving some more troops and aircraft into Tibet). This could be to apply pressure since New Delhi is within some artillery range from Ladakh. It could be to bolster BRI and CPEC security. It could be to get the PLA into a war in some kill the chicken to scare the monkey kind of move like others have suggested.
The above would be assuming my version of facts and events which are conjectures and rightfully challenged. It could all really just be India making increasingly aggressive slices and the CCP has only responded with a tame tread to barely the half way line as plawolf conjectured. Maybe the tensions will totally ease and China will agree to go back to pre-April positions if the Indians stop their salami slicing for good. Who knows.
Because China doesn't need to go kinetic right now. It already got what it wanted from this, and India backed down. The PLA secured the territory which overlooks its logistical lines, and at the same time it is now sitting on top of India's supply lines. What happened in 2020 will have consequences in 2021, and so on. China's position will continue to get stronger, while India will keep falling further behind.
As I mentioned before, this is all positioning on the board. If you make an aggressive move, you have to be prepared that the opponent will decide to trade units. Or, the opponent backs down, in which case, you continue advancing your position (without trading units.) Until the time comes when everything is set up in your favor. At that point, the opponent may just surrender without a fight.
India is hoping that China makes a mistake in its follow-up positioning moves. Or that some other factor comes in to save it (i.e. US). That's the only play it has. Short of that, China is controlling the pace and direction of this game now. So it's in China's interests to continue pressuring and positioning, until its advantage is so overwhelming that it can either go fully kinetic without any real risk, or India surrenders (strategically) without even a fight.
Another variable here, as Sawhney explained, is the integration with the Pakistani military (due to complete in the 2030 time frame), which will make this "two front war" into a "one front war", where both countries can fight a coordinated war against India. All of these things are positioning, along with all the rest of the geopolitical and economic factors which are now increasingly favoring China.
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The only way India will not be ripping its own shirt off with fake news twisting actualities and celebrating non victories would be if China completely annihilated it. There is no such thing as Indians giving China face. Even in utter defeat that was proven to them, they will call it the other way around. Unless you kill the guy, this guy will continue shouting Jai Hind and the usual nonsense. China has so far been VERY kind to India's face while brutalising their soldiers. China doesn't really want to show how Indians end up and India wants to hide everything that makes it look even remotely bad. Check out how sensitive Indians are to the slightest online expression of doubt, even gentle criticism is reacted to with violent rage and a slew of fake bullshit from bhakts. China gets criticised for things that are nuanced or totally untrue nonstop and Chinese carry on like we have for centuries.
There is no disengaging while saving face. Any PLA disengaging the Indians will shout about even when the terms and nuance favour China or the details of disengagement should humiliate Indians. CCP will have to keep this annoying status up, go to war and end it convincingly, or disengage on its own terms but totally lose face as any disengagement will be considered 100% success victory to Jai Hind.
Mate we're talking about a people who call a crashed lunar lander a 99% mission success. These people celebrate the humiliating return of one of their shot down pilots with parties on the streets attended by MILLIONS of jai hinds. Their emotional instability is unrivaled on this planet. Nixon called them ugly, but Kissinger's cuts are deeper - "a scavenging people. Total suck ups".
True but this also means it'll need to constantly contend with small scale Indian intrusions. Maybe it's calculated as a worthy price.
I truly hope China and Pakistan can create a way to properly deal with India politically and militarily and I don't mean with superior militaries which we already have. I mean apply military force to destroy India's military capabilities for good. Economic forces have further crippled India which has always existed as an economic cripple in real life. Ignoring how Indian sympathisers talk up its economy. All those theories in the 2000s are now proven to be full of shit. India is not an economic superstar. It is not even a decent economy. Its industrial potential may be decent with such a young workforce but it hasn't translated opportunity into any remarkable tangible returns so far.
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Oooooh if this is genuinely their government position, the CCP should call its bluff. But the CCP can only call its bluff if they are truly willing to go to war. Perfect opportunity. Some PLA soldiers will unfortunately have to pay the dearest price. I hope the PLA have their backs and go in with the full network although I think the chances are slim because the CCP wants some PLA bodies to show. It's going to look real bad if they are presented as having gone into India to kill scores of Indian soldiers and not lose any/many PLA. With fatalities the CCP can at least create some space for narrative shaping.
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