China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

[AndrewS]

US more more powerfull and larger than NK, have put lot of sanction on NK. The power gap between US and NK is bigger than between China ans Australia. But NK still have those nuclear weapon.

You are basing a policy on the hope that just because of CHina power Australia will bend.

And look at the state of North Korea.
It is resolutely independent, but it is also one of the poorest countries in the world.

Also, you need to read the latest White Paper planning documents published by the Australian Government.
They expect the Chinese economy to grow to 2x the size of the US economy in 2030-2035.
But at that point, China can still be posting higher catchup growth rates.

So we can reasonably expect the economic disparity and Australia's economic dependence to increase further.
If Australia is part of an anti-Chinese alliance led by the USA.

Given the descent of China-US relations into a new cold war, suppose China decides to build a Navy that is 2x larger than the US Navy.

What is Australia supposed to do if both its economic prosperity and military security is dependent on China?
Will Australia continue to follow the USA, or will it have to bend to reality?

 

[AndrewS]

You policy is based on the hope that Australia will change. I see.

I don't think Australia will change its Huawei or fundamental pro-US (and anti-China) stance.

So China just needs to demonstrate publicly that there are costs to such a policy.

 

[AndrewS]

If we're talking about China and a new geopolitical doctrine, the question is essentially about the new US-China cold war.

The US is trying to recruit as many allies as possible, in order to contain China in terms of technology, economics and the military.
China is prevent this from happening, and recruit make as many nations neutral or friendly to China.

The USA and Australia is at the forefront of China-containment policies (eg. curbs on Huawei, technology, trade, investments)

China has difficulty targeting the USA, but Australia is a relatively easy target to make an example of.
Otherwise other nations will sign up to US-led China containment policies.

We can already see Korea and Japan have decided (from prior and past experience) they need to be neutral with respect to US-China disputes.

 

[Rettam Stacf]

I don't think Australia will change its Huawei or fundamental pro-US (and anti-China) stance.

So China just needs to demonstrate publicly that there are costs to such a policy.

Fully agree.

It is worth noting that New Zealand's decision not to join 5 Eyes' statement on Hong Kong's security law in late May was influenced to some degree by China's stand on Australia's anti-China position.

 

[manqiangrexue]

China PR skills is weak. No need to argue with that.

Impressive "debate tactic!" LOLOL But I would actually argue two points:

1. Chinese PR achieves far less than it should because it begins at a very low point with the entire Western PR against it, multiple democratic countries parroting each other against China's voice. So to compare skill, you would need a more level playing field; this is a comparison of overall result in the very lopsided real world situation.

2. Despite this, global opinion towards China is still steadily rising, both among countries, and the youths of countries and with COVID-19, everyone capable of logical thought over hatred and panic can see on display China's effectiveness and benevolence.

Like i said, china policy with some countries should be cooperation and leadership, but with others it should be competition and deterrence.
Not a policy of hope or Good Guy/Bad Guy policy

Not problem with that but that's not what the passage is about, is it? The passage you quoted says that when it pertains to one of those countries that are obviously on the competition and deterrence list (Australia), China should strike back at it even if that strike does not capitulate that country simply because it is the responsible thing to do for Chinese consumers and because there is no need to do any favors to countries that don't do you any.

 

[Biscuits]

China's core alliance is already established, wavering in order to "befriend" countries of a doubtful nature will actually weaken it's international reputation.

Attacking Australia is pointless, they're not an active threat.

What China needs to do is to overcome the internal political block and start taking serious countermeasures against the USA which is the root of the instability that has plagued the world for decades.

The Communist party operate based on using the bottom of the pyramid control the top, rather than most other governments where its the other way around. This is the reason why it cannot easily get tough on USA, because many many labor unions, companies and even farmers abhor the possibility of losing America as a market, it is after all the 2nd largest economy in the world.

Beijing doesn't want to seriously punish America because in the process, many that the government are supposed to represent would be hurt, and they're unwilling to bear the pain at least as things are right now.

Presumably, there's a threshold of hostility that needs to be reached in order to convince enough people that it is worth to sacrifice some business and personal comfort.

 

[AndrewS]

China's core alliance is already established, wavering in order to "befriend" countries of a doubtful nature will actually weaken it's international reputation.

Attacking Australia is pointless, they're not an active threat.

What China needs to do is to overcome the internal political block and start taking serious countermeasures against the USA which is the root of the instability that has plagued the world for decades.

The Communist party operate based on using the bottom of the pyramid control the top, rather than most other governments where its the other way around. This is the reason why it cannot easily get tough on USA, because many many labor unions, companies and even farmers abhor the possibility of losing America as a market, it is after all the 2nd largest economy in the world.

Beijing doesn't want to seriously punish America because in the process, many that the government are supposed to represent would be hurt, and they're unwilling to bear the pain at least as things are right now.

Presumably, there's a threshold of hostility that needs to be reached in order to convince enough people that it is worth to sacrifice some business and personal comfort.

2 points.

1. To be fair, the USA has anchored a stable order, which China has benefited from immensely.

2. You're talking about the Chinese people sacrificing their business and personal comfort in a competition with the USA.
In the short-term, that might make sense if there was an immediate threat.

But in the long-term, China having healthy hi-tech businesses and a broad middle-class high-income population means Chinese influence will overshadow the USA in any rational competition.

So there shouldn't actually be any need for business or the people to make significant sacrifices.

For example: Chinese companies being forced to develop their own world-class technology is not a sacrifice.
It's a competitive long-term advantage.

 

[gadgetcool5]

I agree that cooperation is better in the long run for everyone.
But no matters what China does now, the USA will no longer cooperate with China.

From the Chinese perspective, China wants escape the middle-income trap and become a high-income nation.
That is a reasonable aspiration.

But the USA has finally realised that China will inevitably displace the USA, if China becomes a high-income nation.
After all, a wealthy hi-tech China has 4x the population, so a fully developed China have an economy 4x bigger.
Imagine what such a world would look like if you replaced the USA with China.

So that is why the USA will seek to prevent China becoming a wealthy hi-tech nation.
After all, Chinese technology companies would end up replace US technology companies in many instances.

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In the Asia-Pacific, I would also write off Australia, because it is too wedded to the idea of US as a protector because Australia sees itself as a Western nation rather than an Asian one.

Elsewhere, I think relations and cooperation can still be maintained.

Cooperation is not a yes-no, it is at the margins. The reality is, Chinese companies are still raising a lot of capital from the US, China is still exporting a lot of goods to the US, Chinese students are still learning in the US, and the US has not recognized Taiwan or anything like that.

US policy towards China can always get worse, or it can always be less bad.

Given that the US is the most powerful and technologically advanced country in the world, there is no reason to make the US policy towards China even worse.

So as I said, China should seek to improve relations with the US. Sure there will always be competition in some areas, but to say that there is zero cooperation is not true.

Also you need to keep in mind that America is a pluralistic democracy, which means people have different opinions. There are people in America even who are favorable towards China and want to cooperate with China. China should do what it can to help these voices to more influential.

 

[gadgetcool5]

Dressing up a terrible idea in slightly more sophisticated words doesn't make it a good idea. What you basically said can be summarized as, "When other countries ban your goods and do things to damage ties with you, not only do you not fight back, you try to be nice to them. If someone hits you, you just take in the face. Maybe you'll be able to talk them out of hitting you again and they'll like you better eventually." LOL That's how you develop a reputation as the country anyone can sleight and whose favor is worth nothing. If that idea worked, all the politicians would pop estrogen pills and bake cakes together at international meetings.

Gandhi was popular in India because India had no way to fight back against the British so pity and kindness was the only show in town. If India was militarily and economically stronger than the UK, Gandhi would be an idiot that nobody would ever know existed. Sorry, but you can't be a Chinese Gandhi because China is in the latter situation where it doesn't need a Gandhi.

The bottom line is you and some of the Chinese posters here underestimate the United States.

The United States is more advanced than China in technology and it is not that easy to catch up.

The United States has closer relations with more countries than China.

The current configuration is that the US, Japan, South Korea, the rest of the Five Eyes, are firmly in the US camp, India is being driven to the US camp by the border conflict, and even the EU is not happy with what China is doing in Hong Kong, and maintains an arms embargo on China. Who are China's friends? Russia, Pakistan and Iran, not as impressive.

China is surrounded and encircled by a larger alliance which has (a) a bigger economy, (b) a bigger population, (c) is more technologically advanced. It is not in China's interest to exacerbate this situation.

 

[Aniah]

The bottom line is you and some of the Chinese posters here underestimate the United States.

The United States is more advanced than China in technology and it is not that easy to catch up.

The United States has closer relations with more countries than China.

The current configuration is that the US, Japan, South Korea, the rest of the Five Eyes, are firmly in the US camp, India is being driven to the US camp by the border conflict, and even the EU is not happy with what China is doing in Hong Kong, and maintains an arms embargo on China. Who are China's friends? Russia, Pakistan and Iran, not as impressive.

China is surrounded and encircled by a larger alliance which has (a) a bigger economy, (b) a bigger population, (c) is more technologically advanced. It is not in China's interest to exacerbate this situation.

Japan, S. Korea, and some of the Five eyes aren't going to do anything. You make it sound like they will sacrifice their own people and economy for the US which is stupid, to say the least.
No one is denying that the US has better tech but this does not apply to every field and China will catch up sooner or later and it won't be long.
The US has also been ruining their own relationship with everyone since 4 years ago. Even someone of the five eyes are going directly against them now.
The bottom line is we are not underestimating anything. In fact, the majority of the senior users here have already told you reasons for their beliefs. Almost everything you have said has been countered but you keep repeating the same thing over and over again.

Now, this is something I want to point out. What is with a bunch of newcomers being so pessimistic. This wasn't the case when I joined and it wasn't even that long ago.