China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

Brumby said:

In typical IR, there is a political process leading to any outcome. The differing feature between the US and China is in the manner of political process. The US like any democratic entity adopts a consultative and open process. In contrast, China being a totalitarian regime typically adopts an opaqueness and nebulous approach. This contrast can be seen between the US/China and China/Australia trade war which is on display. Whilst China complains that the US is acting like a bully, China itself is acting just like one with Australia except the difference between the two trade wars is with the political process adopted. China simply decides it want to punish Australia through unilateral action. No initial consultation, refuses to discuss it and hide behind some administrative excuses. That is arrogance and hypocritical in behavior.

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That is correct, China system make them really weak in PR. All of these Huawei stuff is so badly managed.
China seem to think that because they have power now, everybody will say yes to them. But like I said, they are learning slowly

Brumby said:

IMO it is a mindset issue. In totalitarian states, the attitude is "do what I say and not what I do". In other words, it is so used to having its way with no accountability for its actions it just treat others with lesser consideration As China has said before "China is a big country and the rest is .....".

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Not totally a mindset issue and yourself are falling into hypocrisy. This one is not typical of China. If there is a country which is not getting accountability for its actions it should be US. All that because China is weak in PR. Good Guy/Bad Guy in IR is just theatrical.

AndrewS said:

But it will be an object lesson for the next time Australia thinks about doing something similar. And that lesson will be noted elsewhere in the world.

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Sorry but what make you think, next time Australia will not doing again? If China is not going to change despite US policy, why Australia will change to please China?

AndrewS said:

And that lesson will be noted elsewhere in the world.

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China putting sanction on SK company over THAAD issue, has not deter Australia to ban Huawei despite China threat.

AndrewS said:

That is the stick, but China also has much larger economic carrots as well for countries that do play ball.

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If stick and carrot only could change country behavior, Taiwan would have been already reunited with mainland.
What China need to do in these situation is to compete or do deterrence.

gadgetcool5 said:

Maybe step back and see why these countries are doing this and the larger context. Realize that China's threats are not going to change the decision of these countries, so all the threats will do is further damage ties, and further reveal China's impotence.

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I can't believe that after THAAD issue, they are still threating over Huawei...

gadgetcool5 said:

Then work to improve China's relations with the Anglo countries slowly so that although Huawei is banned, the situation for other Chinese people & companies can be marginally improved gradually & over time.

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Work to improve if possible with some countries but compete and deter some other if necessary. What China is doing with India seem to be deterrence, just in a very weak PR.

I wonder how many of you know of Houston, Texas? That is where I am from now, immigrated here from China. In the 20th century, there were many untapped oil fields here, and anyone could buy a plot of land, drill a well, and it was like searching for gold. A few people managed to get spectacularly rich like this overnight. Some people who were very poor men, who had nothing special in terms of education, suddenly got very, very rich. Went from the bottom of the barrel of society to in charge of the world at warp speed. All of a sudden it went to their head, they couldn't handle it, started to bully everyone, fight with everyone, try to settle every old score, embarrassed themselves.

Kind of like t

Bless your heart. Having left and thrown your lot in elsewhere, now you can leave Chinese people to govern ourselves. Enjoy your dash.

escobar said:

Sorry but what make you think, next time Australia will not doing again? If China is not going to change despite US policy, why Australia will change to please China?

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In many respects, China is larger than the USA.
And we can expect China to continue growing faster.
The growth gap has actually increased during this pandemic in China's favour.

That is why China can withstand US pressure to change.

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In comparison, China has:
1. a population 56x larger than Australia
2. a GDP 10x larger than Australia

So in the overall relationship, who has more leverage?

escobar said:

China putting sanction on SK company over THAAD issue, has not deter Australia to ban Huawei despite China threat.

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We have seen South Korea remember the THAAD boycott, which has affected their actions afterwards.
Australian politicians change all the time and have a short memory.
But elsewhere in Asia, everyone else has a much longer institutional memory.

And you have to remember, Australia banning Huawei was a separate decision made some time ago when Australia seemed like an outlier and didn't matter.

Huawei in the UK was part of a deal where London takes the European lead for the offshore RMB finance centre.
And it is reasonable to expect the RMB to rival/replace the US Dollar as a global currency in the future.

escobar said:

If stick and carrot only could change country behavior, Taiwan would have been already reunited with mainland.
What China need to do in these situation is to compete or do deterrence.

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The other argument is why hasn't Taiwan already declared independence?
After all, the more that the years goes on, the more likely it is that Taiwan will end up being reunified, one way or another.

The answer is China is competing and deterring:
1. US military wargames routinely end up with China winning a war over Taiwan, as per the statements from DOD and RAND.
2. Taiwan also doesn't want to forego the economic benefits of trading with China.

gadgetcool5 said:

Maybe step back and see why these countries are doing this and the larger context. Realize that China's threats are not going to change the decision of these countries, so all the threats will do is further damage ties, and further reveal China's impotence.

Then work to improve China's relations with the Anglo countries slowly so that although Huawei is banned, the situation for other Chinese people & companies can be marginally improved gradually & over time.

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Dressing up a terrible idea in slightly more sophisticated words doesn't make it a good idea. What you basically said can be summarized as, "When other countries ban your goods and do things to damage ties with you, not only do you not fight back, you try to be nice to them. If someone hits you, you just take in the face. Maybe you'll be able to talk them out of hitting you again and they'll like you better eventually." LOL That's how you develop a reputation as the country anyone can sleight and whose favor is worth nothing. If that idea worked, all the politicians would pop estrogen pills and bake cakes together at international meetings.

Gandhi was popular in India because India had no way to fight back against the British so pity and kindness was the only show in town. If India was militarily and economically stronger than the UK, Gandhi would be an idiot that nobody would ever know existed. Sorry, but you can't be a Chinese Gandhi because China is in the latter situation where it doesn't need a Gandhi.

escobar said:

That is correct, China system make them really weak in PR. All of these Huawei stuff is so badly managed.

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You can repeat the claim but you cannot back it up when challenged. I asked how would you better-manage it, and you said compete. Huawei's competing at the highest level in the world. What else you got on why Huawei's badly managed? Nothing but repeats of the same empty claim.

escobar said:

Sorry but what make you think, next time Australia will not doing again? If China is not going to change despite US policy, why Australia will change to please China?

China putting sanction on SK company over THAAD issue, has not deter Australia to ban Huawei despite China threat.

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Maybe they change and maybe they don't but bringing up examples of when a strategy failed in order to say it's not effective is like citing all the times when a punch didn't knock someone out to argue that punching isn't an effective strategy. Eventually, when China's economic (and military) power grows to a certain level of superiority over the US, carrot and stick can only work. And if that's not now for some countries, that's ok; China should still give whatever business was coming their way to friendlier or neutral countries simply because that's the respectful thing to do for Chinese consumers.