Trade War with China

[Appix]

localizer too naive about the military threat that the West poses.

Yes, a naive soul.

 

[AndrewS]

Well if China has no ambitions to run an empire like the US, it has no use for a burgeoning military that wastes money. It just needs to do enough to keep India and US in check.

Naturally, we Chinese are peaceful, intellectual, and business minded people and don't like chaos and trouble. I know it's probably why we got screwed so many times, but I'm confident the future will be different.

China continuing to spend 2% of GDP is actually pretty modest, considering what China is capable of spending, and what other countries like the US or Russia spend.

Remember that in 2025, China would have its own set of globe spanning technology multinationals, given its current R&D growth trajectory.

And that China likely will be even further ahead as the world's largest trading nation.

So it is in China's interest for the existing liberal trade and investment order to survive. In comparison, the US would be trying to fracture the system and force countries to choose the US, instead of deferring to China.

And the Chinese navy will be part of the calculation that other counties will base their decisions on.

And as the largest trading nation (and eventually Navy), China would have a paramount interest in freedom of navigation for commercial AND military purposes.

And if China is developing more IP than everyone else, it is in China's interest to enforce strict IP terms on the rest of the world. So it would be in China's interest to join the TPP and become the defacto economic leader in the Indo-Pacific.

 

[tidalwave]

China cannot hide its strength and continue to build up. US already see through this. It wages trade war, cold war to scale China down.
What if China starting to militarily challenge US now? It can't hide anymore , might as well.
It will harm US interests across the globe if China starts to challenge US militarily through Proxy.
Even Iran is doing that to US even though it's so economically crippled.

Actively foster proxy groups to hammer US across the globe.

Right now, China only adopting a very defensive posture, it doesn't eveb go after US companies in China.

Banning at least one or two US companies in China is minimal response at this point.

There's no guarantee Huawei can survive the international market. It's backup chips , some of them may not be competitive with US parts. It could lose majority of the international market

 

[tidalwave]

China continuing to spend 2% of GDP is actually pretty modest, considering what China is capable of spending, and what other countries like the US or Russia spend.

Remember that in 2025, China would have its own set of globe spanning technology multinationals, given its current R&D growth trajectory.

And that China likely will be even further ahead as the world's largest trading nation.

So it is in China's interest for the existing liberal trade and investment order to survive. In comparison, the US would be trying to fracture the system and force countries to choose the US, instead of deferring to China.

And the Chinese navy will be part of the calculation that other counties will base their decisions on.

And as the largest trading nation (and eventually Navy), China would have a paramount interest in freedom of navigation for commercial AND military purposes.

And if China is developing more IP than everyone else, it is in China's interest to enforce strict IP terms on the rest of the world. So it would be in China's interest to join the TPP and become the defacto economic leader in the Indo-Pacific.

It won't work, if Huawei got killed or scaled down severely a few years from now, US will go back to normal, and everything back to normal because the threat is killed.

What China have left is just vivo, xiaomi, oppo, Lenovo depending on key US tech.

No, China has a score go settle, it needs to put some US tech companies out of business.

 

[Arkboy]

It won't work, if Huawei got killed or scaled down severely a few years from now, US will go back to normal, and everything back to normal because the threat is killed.

What China have left is just vivo, xiaomi, oppo, Lenovo depending on key US tech.

No, China has a score go settle, it needs to put some US tech companies out of business.

We all know what happened when Japan acquiesed at the Plaza accords, ended up 40 years of lost growth. Japan might not have had a choice, because of the US military bases etc, but Xi /CCP cannot afford to make the same mistake.

China will not let Huawei fail, and it doesn't seem US will go "back to normal".... even if Trump kicked out of office in 2021, the larger US geopolitically strategy of China/East containment will not significantly change. In American's thinking even if it cannot reverse China, it will do its best to contain China as much as it can for as long as possible, to slow China down to its best ability. For that reason, while I see a temporarily stop of escalation, its not certain that the tariffs that are preexisting today will ever go away. both sides are restructuring, decoupling, and US thinks this way it is a roll of the dice that outcome might favor America. If US continues to "normal" they know China will soon surpass, but they feel if roll the dice it could end up in a USSR situation were China breaks apart, they install Taiwan leaders (wishful thinking but still some think it) and then America gets to lead another 100 years.

 

[TK3600]

So many war hawks here. American business here is a mutually beneficial thing, why ban them. China dont have to do exactly what USA is doing. China should seek its own advantage while avoid american advantage. In other words, hit the american farmers and blue collar workers by tariff their car and food export. That will hit Trump's voters. Tech companies like Apple are not Trump supporters. They hate Trump. So why hit them?

Also please do not spend as much on military as usa. They are falling apart due to these overspending. No sane person will go total war on China, they already have the best land army and nuclear deterance. With home advantage they wont lose on sea and air either. With no extra % gdp on military china will still spend more, further reinforce the position. Unless you are advocating for beating usa on sea away from home in a total war, absolutely no point to spend anymore.

 

[tidalwave]

Iran stated it make no distinction of whether US waging real war or economic war. Its the same regardless, It will attack US interests.
China may to adopt different mindset. Long March or hunkering down may not be optimal.

 

[tidalwave]

So many war hawks here. American business here is a mutually beneficial thing, why ban them. China dont have to do exactly what USA is doing. China should seek its own advantage while avoid american advantage. In other words, hit the american farmers and blue collar workers by tariff their car and food export. That will hit Trump's voters. Tech companies like Apple are not Trump supporters. They hate Trump. So why hit them?

Also please do not spend as much on military as usa. They are falling apart due to these overspending. No sane person will go total war on China, they already have the best land army and nuclear deterance. With home advantage they wont lose on sea and air either. With no extra % gdp on military china will still spend more, further reinforce the position. Unless you are advocating for beating usa on sea away from home in a total war, absolutely no point to spend anymore.

Lol, Google, Intel, Qualcomm and many others just follow US government to ban huawei.

 

[tidalwave]

So many war hawks here. American business here is a mutually beneficial thing, why ban them. China dont have to do exactly what USA is doing. China should seek its own advantage while avoid american advantage. In other words, hit the american farmers and blue collar workers by tariff their car and food export. That will hit Trump's voters. Tech companies like Apple are not Trump supporters. They hate Trump. So why hit them?

Also please do not spend as much on military as usa. They are falling apart due to these overspending. No sane person will go total war on China, they already have the best land army and nuclear deterance. With home advantage they wont lose on sea and air either. With no extra % gdp on military china will still spend more, further reinforce the position. Unless you are advocating for beating usa on sea away from home in a total war, absolutely no point to spend anymore.

US falling apart due to overspending. Ok. Interesting

 

[TK3600]

Lol, Google, Intel, Qualcomm and many others just follow US government to ban huawei.

They are compeled to, but tariff is against their interest too. Hitting them is damaging to Chinese economy too, so no need to do more than needed. Reversely, it seems like USA have all the initiative, but when Trump tariff all Chinese goods, they too suffer. If you want Trump out of office, hit those factory workers and farmer, they asked for Trump, and without them you can be sure Trump is losing 2020.

Or not. Throw the war by signing a small concession, let Trump brag he won, so he stay in office. Honestly Trump can do a lot of damage to USA himself, may as well keep him.