Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

[Max Demian]

CMANO is a very powerful engine and the developers have done a great job with what the simulator can run.

... However the "relative capabilities" of the various systems in its database (especially the more contemporary ones) are very much an unknown quantity. That is to say, they're making guesses like the rest of us -- sometimes their guesses are more informed, sometimes they are less informed, depending on which nation's military they are inputting performance in for.


This isn't a critque of you btw, but rather just a general warning for people who would use CMANO database or results of CMANO war games as a "realistic" result for the capabilities of different systems.

Exactly. They are guesses. CMANO also has a professional version of their product where the customers can use their own databases to conduct war game simulations.

However, we should also be aware that all published data, especially for non-export military items, are intentionally inaccurate. Anecdotal evidence from pilots providing relative comparisons between platforms is another potentially valuable source of information.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Well, that's what you get when you ask me to count imaginary points on a non-existent map to prove your point.

They have most definitely got their priorities wrong. They should recognize their blood and recognize the only way they can become a powerful force in the world is to rejoin China. Until they do, they remain a pawn that only draws pity.

Very very questionable to wait for a country that has never engaged a mighty nuclear rival to defend any of its allies, not Ukraine, Georgia, no one, and the chances of there being a first diminish every day with the growing strength of the PLA. That said, if it does happen, the consequences will be felt globally with total nuclear war.

PS. I have no idea why you put the mainland in Chinese characters and I'm very curious. Why?

I don't know why people still holding on hopes of another country coming to rescue them?

They obviously don't know history of how Taiwan became Taiwan the first place. And how this have affected EVERY Chinese person ever since.

Also, to those countrues that's going "to defend Taiwan", theres a cost, and make no mistakes, when the costs of defending Taiwan outweights the benefits, Taiwan will be dropped like a lead ballon!

Just look at what happened the last two times, countries came and "defend" their allies in the orient!

Whereas for China the cost to defend the country's soverignity is priceless. Thus the cost is limitless!

That's not to say the Chinese are stubbone or reckless, the Chinese are doing no more than other country would do.

 

[manqiangrexue]

However, we should also be aware that all published data, especially for non-export military items, are intentionally inaccurate.

There's really no way to have a discussion with you. If all published data is inaccurate, there's nothing to talk about. We therefore don't know anything about anything by that logic and anybody who does rudimentary math on their own forum should be trusted over official sources, and I cannot even count how many of those there are.

I know it said I didn't want to talk about this anymore but I got curious. I actually went back and read the arguments and first of all, the "experts" don't have names; they only have screen names like Hcobb, Mightyname, XaHyMah. Those sound like authoritative names to you??! Then, the final argument by Mightname was that the people at Lockheed Martin screwed up converting Kg to pounds. Are you kidding me??? This company makes jets, not rubber duckies; they can convert kg to pounds in their sleep. Also, whatever he is adding to a 43,000 lb figure to make it 56,000 or 68,000 lbs, the MTOW of the F-22 is stated at over 83,000 lbs so there is absolutely no problem with either weight. You are reading the jumbled nonsensical arguments of internet forum hobbyists and trying to assert that over official data provided by Lockheed Martin. Don't waste your time.

 

[Max Demian]

There's really no way to have a discussion with you. If all published data is inaccurate, there's nothing to talk about. We therefore don't know anything about anything by that logic and anybody who does rudimentary math on their own forum should be trusted over official sources, and I cannot even count how many of those there are.

The way I see it, it just makes making definitive statements impossible. Guesswork is the name of the game on this forum. There is zero incentive for LockMart to publish exact figures for the F-22, an aircraft under export embargo. Likewise, some people still choose to believe that the Type 346 is a dual band S-band/C-band AESA, while photographic evidence and closer scrutiny indicate otherwise.

 

[manqiangrexue]

There is zero incentive for LockMart to publish exact figures for the F-22, an aircraft under export embargo.

When a defense company does not wish to disclose information, they say it is "classified." They don't make up wrong numbers to throw foreign intelligence and then get foiled by 3 no names on a Wikipedia discussion.

 

[Brumby]

what would be the link to
"RAND only gives the ROCAF 2-4 weeks if the PLA refrained from using a saturation missile attack at the opening of hostilities"
?
(sorry if already posted, but this thread has been recently doing like ten pages daily, so I ask)

The link to the RAND report.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The report basically outlines different options in which Taiwan should invest in their air defense to extract maximum effectiveness.

Relevant piece of the summary :

If a major conflict were initiated, China now has the capability to destroy all of Taiwan’s aircraft at their bases, except those that can
be hidden in Taiwan’s two mountain shelters—but those protected aircraft might provide little solace because, although the aircraft might
be safe in these caves, Taiwan cannot use them from those shelters for sustained combat operations. Thus, Taiwan needs to rethink how it
can accomplish its air defense goals in a major conflict without heavy reliance on its fighter aircraft.

Fighter aircraft are not the only element of Taiwan’s air defense; surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) are the other major element. Here
we see more promise, if Taiwan can both use its SAMs to their best advantage—that is, against aircraft and cruise missiles, not primarily
against ballistic missiles—and employ them in a way that increases their survivability—that is, by operating them for short periods of
time, followed by rapid teardown and movement. Used in this way, Taiwan’s SAMs could become an important contributor to the defense
of Taiwan and a difficult capability for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to easily counter.

Still, air defense in a major war is only one possible category of demands for Taiwan’s air defenses. A variety of more-limited military
conflicts could draw on air defense capabilities. We found that, in these coercive situations, if the level of violence is relatively high,
the PLA could check Taiwan’s fighter aircraft if it chose. However, in coercive scenarios that feature very constrained use of force, Taiwan’s
fighter aircraft can play a role in countering aggression. The question is whether maintaining that limited capability is worth the major financial
investment that it entails.

This report analyzes Taiwan’s options for allocating future resources for air defense capabilities. We describe the essential air defense problem posed by the PLA, characterize the current capabilities and level of funding that Taiwan invests in air defense, and then develop several alternative investment strategies. We then test those investment strategies in three vignettes that span the range of conflict, from quite limited coercive uses of force to a full invasion.

The argument boils down to individual interpretation of the report and what it means relative to respective choice of narrative.

 

[Max Demian]

I don't know why people still holding on hopes of another country coming to rescue them?
They obviously don't know history of how Taiwan became Taiwan the first place. And how this have affected EVERY Chinese person ever since.

Taiwan was never in its history governed by the CCP, nor has the CCP ever held any sovereignty over that territory. A quick review of history shows that the first government on the island was established by the Dutch (who ousted the Spanish from their colony in the north), who were subsequently ejected by Koxinga, whose descendants in turn were defeated and the island annexed by the Qing, who in turn ceded the island to the Japanese, who in turn relinquished their sovereignity of the island in the Treaty of Taipei, wherein "Japan renounced all claim to them [Taiwan and the Penghu Islands] without specifying to what country they were to be surrendered". Since then, ROC has exercised sovereignty over the island.

 

[manqiangrexue]

The link to the RAND report.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The report basically outlines different options in which Taiwan should invest in their air defense to extract maximum effectiveness.

Relevant piece of the summary :


The argument boils down to individual interpretation of the report and what it means relative to respective choice of narrative.

Where in your quote does it say 2-4 weeks? The question is about the 2-4 week claim and you don't even dare cite the right passage because you know you are wrong.

If you read my answer here (https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/taiwan-military-news-reports-data-etc.t3396/page-320#post-558417), now that's an answer!

But it is a nice passage. It showed that whatever aircraft are not hidden in caves are destroyed but if you do hide them, you cannot use them. In other words, there is no such thing as an airbase hidden in the mountains that can be used through a PRC missile bombardment.

 

[Max Demian]

I don't know why people still holding on hopes of another country coming to rescue them?

The USA has been doing a good job deterring PRC's invasion of Taiwan ever since the outbreak of the Korean war and the sailing of the 7th fleet through the Taiwan strait in 1950.

 

[manqiangrexue]

The USA has been doing a good job deterring PRC's invasion of Taiwan ever since the outbreak of the Korean war and the sailing of the 7th fleet through the Taiwan strait in 1950.

That's a matter correlation, not causation. You can say the US has done a great job from stopping the sun from burning out by that logic. In fact, Mao didn't have the naval capacity or he would have chased Chiang's forces and finished them off on Taiwan. After a while, Mao died and it's not kosher to start beating on someone from a split that happened decades ago unless they reignite it, plus, China's current economic momentum leads to hopes of peaceful integration, and so we are where we are today.

If the US today announced that they would not defend the ROC, the PRC would still want to integrate peacefully. If the US announced that they will definitely defend the ROC and the ROC declared independence, then China will still go to war and is prepared to get into a nuclear fight. China's generals have made that clear, unlike America's "strategic ambiguity" AKA "I need room to back out of this."

The US has historically demonstrated that when it engages China in Asia, like in Vietnam and in Korea, it loses. The current US won't engage any deadly foe like Russia or China, not for SCS islands, not for Ukraine, not for Georgia. The most it will do is fly/sail in circles to annoy.