Military situation in the sino-indian border

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weig2000

Captain
From Neville Maxwell, author of "India's China War."

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The absurd myth of an ‘unprovoked Chinese aggression’ in 1962 has fermented in India a persistent longing for revenge

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15 Jul 2017

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interacting over more than 3,000km of undefined frontier, friction is constant and that one day it would break back into border war has seemed inevitable. Two great Indian delusions have created this situation.

The lesser of these was the outright falsehood spun in the shock of immediate and utter Indian defeat in 1962’s Round One border war with China, when, after the hesitant launch of an Indian offensive to drive the Chinese out of India-claimed territory on the Chinese side of the McMahon Line, the pre-emptive Chinese counter-attack had in little more than a month crushed the Indian Army. It enabled the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to vacate all the territory it had occupied with nothing more than the minatory – and humiliating – warning to India, “don’t challenge us again”.

The absurd myth of an “unprovoked Chinese aggression” which had taken India by surprise was promulgated to resurrect the broken image of “Pandit” Jawaharlal Nehru, the prime minister personally and pre-eminently responsible for the national disaster. Although long ago exposed and belied internationally, in India the myth has
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in high military as well as political circles a longing for revenge.

The underlying and greater delusion is that India’s geographical limits are set by millennial historical forces. The process of boundary formation established and required by the international community (negotiation to achieve agreement on border alignment and cooperation to demarcate the agreed alignment on the ground) thus becomes otiose for the Indian republic. India, having “discovered” the alignment of its borders through historical research, need only display them on its official maps and those would become defined international boundaries “not open to discussion with anybody”, as Nehru put it in a notorious order in 1954.

He applied his own ruling literally and categorically, rejecting Beijing’s repeated calls for negotiation; and every one of his scores of successors in the Indian leadership has clung, or felt nailed to, that obdurate and provocative stance, in effect claiming the sole right unilaterally to define China’s as well as India’s borders. Every generation of literate Indians is inculcated with that false sense of national oppression by the cartographic image showing broad areas of Indian territory “occupied” by China, with reminders that Beijing’s maps reveal an intention to seize even more.

The Sino-Indian interface along the undefined and contested frontier is consequently and constantly a source of international friction, waiting only for incidental sparks to set off martial conflagration.

Border war was narrowly averted in 1987 when a belligerent Indian Army commander, General Krishnaswamy Sundarj, having been foiled in his plan to render Pakistan a “broken-back state”, turned his attention to the China border. He massively reinforced positions there and in deliberate provocation pushed numerous posts across the established McMahon line of actual control. China reacted with matching troop concentrations and air force inductions, and warned India to desist from its aggressions, which, in the late summer of 1987, it did, probably under US pressure.

The heat went out of the confrontation but the Indian Army was left in a grossly unbalanced situation, with great troop concentrations beyond normal supply reach. That predicament induced a new Indian government, under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, to negotiate in 1993 India’s one and only border agreement with the PRC: jointly to observe the line of actual control (LAC) and to reduce force levels to a practical minimum. Later, developments fell far short of what the treaty required.

The current confrontation in the Sikkim sector might appear to have similar origins in military rather than political assertions, with India’s army chief, General Bipin Rawat, beating his chest with boasts that India can fight and win on “two and a half” fronts simultaneously.

But the context points to deeper factors. India has recently been goading China in what can only have been a purposeful series of actions. Rather than let the LAC mature with the passing years, India has been needling Beijing by taking such doll figures as the
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and loud-mouthed American diplomats into the disputed border region India proclaims to be its state of Arunachal Pradesh, and megaphoning the false claim that the McMahon alignment represents a legal boundary rather than a historical but contested claim. The McMahon Line in fact rests on a
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, long exposed. This may be another indication that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has decided that India’s interest will be served better in an aggressive American alliance rather than in a neighbourly relationship with China.

The sudden convergence of Indian and Chinese troop concentrations around the current military confrontation in Doklam illustrates again the truth of Curzon’s observation in his Oxford lecture that borders can be “the razor’s edge on which hang suspended the modern issue of war or peace”. There is a spicy historical irony here because this confrontation is precisely sited in the single, tiny Sino-Indian border sector that was long ago treaty-defined and demarcated.

In 1890, rational self-interest brought the mighty British Raj to sit down in conference, as if on equal terms, with the ruler of the Lilliputian Himalayan state of Sikkim, agree on the alignment of the state’s border and jointly mark that out on the ground. Time, weather and probably local human mischief will have obliterated the border markers but the careful verbal description in the Treaty prevails to prove that the local Indian commander, with or without higher orders, has blatantly moved forces into what is now Chinese territory. Beijing, sorely chafed already by India’s recent repeated provocations, appears to have decided that this is too much, and has itself adopted the absolutist Nehruvian position of “no discussion without withdrawal”.

The Indian attempt to depict this confrontation as tripartite should be disregarded. Bhutan is not an independent actor, is rather an Indian glove-puppet. A brigade group of the Indian Army, permanently stationed in Bhutan and now reinforced, is an ever-present reminder to Bhutan’s ruling group of what happened to Sikkim when its ruler aspired to independence – speedy annexation.

Thus this still petty armed confrontation has a real and potentially enormous explosive potential – Round Two of Sino-Indian war. The way out, and ahead, lies where it always has been, in the opening of comprehensive, unconditional Sino-Indian boundary negotiation. What bars the way is the requirement of Indian policy reversal, which in the current bellicose mood and twisted popular sense of injury in India would require heroic bravery of leadership.

There is an example of just such an action, which seeded what now appears to be the key geopolitical factor of the age, the Sino-Russian alliance: Gorbachev’s reversal of the Soviets’ no-negotiation stance in the border dispute with China, blooded in the Zhenbao Island battles of 1969. From the long-extended negotiations to compromise severely clashing territorial claims emerged a mutual confidence and trust that, annealed by common exposure to American hostility, set into an alliance just short of formal declaration. Should a leader ever emerge in India with the courage and vision Gorbachev showed, such too could be a
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future.

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Neville Maxwell, who covered the 1962 China-India border war as the South Asia correspondent for The Times, is the author of India’s China War. In March 2014, Maxwell leaked the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat Report, an Indian government report from 1963 examining India’s defeat in the Sino-Indian War that is yet to be declassified.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I tell you what. Why trade surplus is nothing to be proud of and less important than self sufficiency. Trade surplus means you depending on exports and people can squeeze you because they know you depending on it. They will arm twisting you to do things that are not pleasant to you.

Just saw this part; you must have added it after I replied so I didn't see it. That's not true. Whether or not you can use trade as a weapon to twist other people's arm depends NOT on the surplus or deficit but it depends on 2 things.

1. Whether the item you are selling is essential to the economy/normal operations of that country. (ie. rare earths were essential to Japan's economy and thus Japan was susceptible to Chinese unofficial embargo.)

2. How competitive/efficient your operations are. For example, if China can make smart phones for $200 and the next best competitor can do it for $201, then China has little to no power over say the American companies that outsource there. The US can threaten to move their lines to twist China's arm. Being that the factory is only average in efficiency, the demand to pick up such a factory won't be high and those workers may be jobless for some time. On the other hand, if China can make smart phones for $200 but the nearest competitor needs $400, then China can twist America's arm by threatening to kick its operations out of China and cut deep into their profits potentially making American smart phones noncompetitive on the global market. Sure, those Chinese cellphone factories will still be "shut down", but remember, if they're super-competitive, the demand for such a factory will be very high and other companies would jump at the chance to snap it up; maybe foreign, maybe domestic.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
If any body know about the border between India and China, Neville maxwell is the man. He is the first who broached that Nehru forward policy cause the 62 war. And He was imploring the GOI to release the report by general Henderson to expunge the devil of "stab in the back and innocent India attack by wild Chinese" argument
He know the story of India China relation from the very beginning. A wise man indeed

In 1890, rational self-interest brought the mighty British Raj to sit down in conference, as if on equal terms, with the ruler of the Lilliputian Himalayan state of Sikkim, agree on the alignment of the state’s border and jointly mark that out on the ground. Time, weather and probably local human mischief will have obliterated the border markers but the careful verbal description in the Treaty prevails to prove that the local Indian commander, with or without higher orders, has blatantly moved forces into what is now Chinese territory. Beijing, sorely chafed already by India’s recent repeated provocations, appears to have decided that this is too much, and has itself adopted the absolutist Nehruvian position of “no discussion without withdrawal”.

The Indian attempt to depict this confrontation as tripartite should be disregarded. Bhutan is not an independent actor, is rather an Indian glove-puppet. A brigade group of the Indian Army, permanently stationed in Bhutan and now reinforced, is an ever-present reminder to Bhutan’s ruling group of what happened to Sikkim when its ruler aspired to independence – speedy annexation.

Thus this still petty armed confrontation has a real and potentially enormous explosive potential – Round Two of Sino-Indian war. The way out, and ahead, lies where it always has been, in the opening of comprehensive, unconditional Sino-Indian boundary negotiation. What bars the way is the requirement of Indian policy reversal, which in the current bellicose mood and twisted popular sense of injury in India would require heroic bravery of leadership.
 
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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Lhasa Gonggar airport. Anybody know which brigade it is? J 10 or J 11B?. I count 14 plane
No description on Scramble site It says Lhasa it temporary field can be any regiment from other place
I saw both J10 and J 11B operating from Gonggar

DE2hR_zUAAA9OWX.jpg
 
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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Can't compare India and China one on one like that. China needs to held at higher standard because West is against it. Arms embargo and high-tech blocking.
China has to gone extra extra miles on order to deal with all it's surroundings. China has achieved alot but I still see alot of holes across general sectors. Not just cherry picking certain spots here and there.


China wasn't suppose to beat back the US in the Korean War. The Chinese were spent and had an inferior army yet routed the US. Isn't that a hole? If you guys can win so easily against China why don't you start the war right now? Uncertainty? Too afraid to take on North Korea yet somehow taking on China is less risky?
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
China wasn't suppose to beat back the US in the Korean War. The Chinese were spent and had an inferior army yet routed the US. Isn't that a hole? If you guys can win so easily against China why don't you start the war right now? Uncertainty? Too afraid to take on North Korea yet somehow taking on China is less risky?
Because China have too much trade surplus and US knows it has leverage over China. It can pressure China to do things. That's why I say to the other guy depending on exports and having big trade surplus is not a good things. People will arm twisting you for that and know you won't fight back too much for sake of trade surplus
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
China cannot plan war ahead without thinking of controlling Indian ocean.

For starter, it needs stealth fighters on Carrier and a fleet of SSN 093b or 095 prowling the ocean along with other surface combatant ships.
 

kriss

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think Pakistan would be more than happy to let PLAAF use some of their airbase to give India some trouble. Also china has naval base in Djibouti and potentially Pakistan. If this standoff doesn't turn war soon these base would be operational when the conflict starts. Submarine is the biggest threat. Though I don't know exactly how effective is PLAN ASW capablity there is one surface task force accompanied by submarines in Indian Ocean at any given time. I also don't think that's even close to their limit of naval projection capablity.

I agree with tidal that it's too much risk to go to war with India without control of India Ocean but I think that's doable for China and we should keep tracking development in these areas so we can have some clue before things escalate (though we can do nothing to change it).
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I can't believe the nonsense I am reading, another one goes on the ignore list then. :rolleyes:

Anyone who think India can mount any sort of blockade on China simply does not grasp the most basic fundamentals of how international trade works.

Chinese flagged ships do not exclusively carry cargo bound to/from China, and a great bulk of China bound cargo is carried on foreign flagged ships.

Even if we ignore the giant question mark of whether India actually has the military capability to enforce a blockade of shipping in the Indian Ocean in the face of PLA opposition, the simple reality of how world trade works means that for India to have any chance of trying to disrupt Chinese trade, they would have to effectively cut off ALL trade through the Indian Ocean.

There is also the inconvenient fact that trade is a two-way street. India attacking Chinese shipping won't just upset China, it will also upset the countries who bought and paid for the goods on those ships, and who's economic and social welfare depend on that trade.

Then it won't be a simple matter of India vs China, it will be India vs the rest of the world.

For a blockade to work, you either need massive political, financial and military capabilities far beyond what India could dream of aspiring to; or you need geographical chock points.

And no, places like the Indian Ocean or Malacca Strait don't work well as chock points against China because of how far away they are from China and how much international trade goes through there.

Unless you want to stop world wide free trade, and have the military power and the political will to fight the rest of the world to do it, you just can't mount an effective blockade of China through those far away chock points.

That is why the US spent all that time and political capital trying to stir things up in the South China Sea - because that would be an ideal place to mount such a blockade against Chinese seaborne trade.

The USN already owns the Indian Ocean, if it was such a simple matter to blockade China through there, why would they have bothered with the SCS? Conversely, if even the USN is looking at the SCS for a far better way to try and threaten Chinese seaborne trade, what makes anyone think the far punier Indian Navy can do any better in the Indian Ocean?

If anything, Indian attempts to threaten Chinese seaborne trade in the Indian Ocaen would actually only serve to give the PLAN the perfect pretext and opportunity to enforce a blockade of Indian seaborne trade.

All the PLAN needs to do is deploy its subs to covertly lay minefields within 200km (not a set-in-stone figure, and can be more or less depending on need and circumstance) of Indian ports. Declare that as necessary to protect international free trade from Indian attacks, and civilian shipping to India simply stops.

International shipping can use the Indian Ocean without disruption by simply staying 200km from the Indian coast so international ire would be limited. Especially since Indian world trade is so tiny in comparison to China.

However, no insurance company would touch any ship wanting to dock at an Indian port because of the mine threat, and without insurance, no skipper would agree to take a freight job to India, especially with a very real mine threat.
 
I'll attach a Like here just because I peruse that map,
to show the actual areas possibly claimed by China in the region where the recent events took place
(which is NOT in 'Doklam Plateau' shown in the above map (by the way I saw this mistake made even in some The Guardian article), but it's in
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):

claim #1, based on the map broadcasted in Chinese TV Thursday at 6:47 AM
Monday at 12:28 PM

... now found it broadcasted in Chinese TV:
Cfw8W.jpg

ROUGHLY 30 square miles
(now I deleted the map here, which would show my measurement, as
I realized there's the limit of five Images in one post, but if you think I'm bluffing, just call it out)
which I marked off in pink (middle-left part of the map below):
aN1xl.jpg



claim #2, based on historic-Tibet border which I found myself Friday at 9:10 PM
would mean VERY ROUGHLY additional (adding to #1 above, of course) 120 square miles (I don't show my measurement again due to the limit on Images); the whole possible claim is marked off in purple in the map below:
0TJZE.jpg


my point is these about 150 square miles are (I didn't check if completely) in
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which is an area with no permanent population (I'm not saying this just because the webpage says that, but because for perhaps ten (?) minutes in total I was looking at the Torsa River valley up to the ridges and back to the river on both its banks; plus I've noticed the valley to the east is different in this respect:
3FmuA.jpg

I "found" that valley while checking the 1876 map Friday at 9:10 PM: I played it safe, took it from
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to that area)

I mean all I saw in the Torsa valley was an Yeti ... but it's clear to me those two and a half billion people will soon destroy it
you know, I look at those places so that in the future I can tell my grandkid, if I ever have one, like
See that highway over the river? When I was still young (LOL), there was nothing but a forest there

it's kinda sad to me, but you have fun in this thread LOL noticed 'generic Viagra', 'badgers in China', nukes, shipping lines, 'advance on Delhi' (by the way if I had visited an Indian forum, I would've seen
'advance on Beijing' I guess) all brought in here, so cheers!
 
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