South China Sea Strategies for other nations (Not China)

climax

New Member
You need to accept the fact that the American people will not accept another war or conflict just for a bunch of rocks in the middle of the sea, regardless of the fire power it has. You can't possibly think society can stomach another round of casualties and PTSD veterans coming home with no employment and suffering from various social issues with the economy as it is today. China is not some Iraq or Afghanistan either easily being pushed around.

So it had come in sense, when it was tiny rock, why should we care, but when you can change it to big ISLANDS, has its own sovereignty, along with its benefits, surely it worth so much efforts to take it, historical record could be trash paper. :rolleyes:
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Guys...we need to settle down.

A lot of emotion coming out on this thread.

The fact is, there are major SLOCs through the South China Sea that are important to all of the players, including the US.

China wants to lay claim to the whole of it and that, I do not believe, is going to be able to fly.

I believe China knows this...and they are using very wise actions (from their perspective) in making these massive reclamation efforts which will bolster the claims they do have and allow them to better secure them and allow for their mutual support.

The US is going to simply ensure, for its own interests that the free passage and navigation through the SLOCs is maintained for itself and its allies.

Those two things (China strengthening its position in the SCS) and the US and others doing what they can to secure free passage of the SLOCs are not mutually exclusive.

I believe China claiming everything in the SCS based on the dashed lines would prove to be mutually exclusive. Such a claim implies control over the SLOCs and [passage through them.

THAT is what has to be hammered out, and as Bltizo said earlier, that is really the underlying factor here.

If china will convince the other players that its reclamation efforts are aimed at strengthening their own actual possessions and the claims associated with them, as opposed to taking control of the whole of the SCS...I believe the situation can be diffused, because it would allow the others to maintain their principle interests and the US to continue with the free passage for commerce and resources for itself and its allies.
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
So it had come in sense, when it was tiny rock, why should we care, but when you can change it to big ISLANDS, has its own sovereignty, along with its benefits, surely it worth so much efforts to take it, historical record could be trash paper. :rolleyes:

Go big or go home. No one stopping you from doing the same right? Oh...it's the budget.."dem it Jim..I'm a doctor not a contradiction". Sorry I have to do my Dr. McCoy Star Trek impersonation there.:D
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
You need to accept the fact that the American people will not accept another war or conflict just for a bunch of rocks in the middle of the sea, regardless of the fire power it has. You can't possibly think society can stomach another round of casualties and PTSD veterans coming home with no employment and suffering from various social issues with the economy as it is today. China is not some Iraq or Afghanistan either easily being pushed around.
Nobody is talking about actual armed conflict. Like Blitzo said, you have to factor in all players' angle in relation to each other to get ahead in the game with the least possible cost. That's all.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Guys...we need to settlee down.

A lot of emotion coming out on this thread.

The fact is, there are major SLOCs through the South China Sea that are important to all of the players, including the US.

China wants to lay claim to the whole of it and that, I do not believe, is going to be able to fly.

I believe China knows this...and they are using very wise actions (from their perspective) in making these massive reclamation efforts which will bolster the claims they do have and allow them to better secure them and allow for their mutual support.

Jeff, I think a big issue is whether the 9 dash line means China is laying claim to the whole of the area of water inside it as its territory, or only the islands. I personally have interpreted it as the latter the entire time, as I don't think China has ever warned naval ships of other countries entering the nine dash line that they are entering "chinese territorial waters" or the like.

But a more concerning possibility, is even if China's actual territorial claims were smaller than they are now, China would likely still seek to dominate the SCS in the long term through military means through long duration taskforce patrols of the SCS and the procurement of long range air power -- and I fear the US would likely strongly oppose it.

So I suppose the silent uncomfortable question for me, is whether the current US concern is because they want to challenge some of China's island reclamations that they do not see as islands, or if the US opposes all the islands China is building because it provides China the ability to project military power to a somewhat more effective degree and I suspect China perceives the US as seeking to constrain China's ability to project power.
If the reason is the latter, then I fear the SCS is only the beginning of greater friction between China and the US. The recent news of China possibly seeking a base in Djibouti was met with some alarm in the US, and many think tanks are already overanalyzing China's presence in the Mediterranean.

Unfortunately this friction is rooted in some fundamental mistrust, but in the more direct sense I fear that even if the SCS territorial dispute was resolved tomorrow, it would not resolve the question of how much China is seeking the capability project military power and how much the US may seek to constrain it. (note I use the word constrain rather than contain)... And those two uncomfortable questions are the hard ones which both countries need to properly address.
 

climax

New Member
Guys...we need to settlee down.

A lot of emotion coming out on this thread.

The fact is, there are major SLOCs through the South China Sea that are important to all of the players, including the US.

China wants to lay claim to the whole of it and that, I do not believe, is going to be able to fly.

I believe China knows this...and they are using very wise actions (from their perspective) in making these massive reclamation efforts which will bolster the claims they do have and allow them to better secure them and allow for their mutual support.

The US is going to simply ensure, for its own interests that the free passage and navigation through the SLOCs is maintained for itself and its allies.

Those two things (China strengthening its position in the SCS) and the US and others doing what they can to secure free passage of the SLOCs are not mutually exclusive.

I believe China claiming everything in the SCS based on the dashed lines would prove to be mutually exclusive. Such a claim implies control over the SLOCs and [passage through them.

THAT is what has to be hammered out, and as Bltizo said earlier, that is really the underlying factor here.

If china will convince the other players that its reclamation efforts are aimed at strengthening their own actual possessions and the claims associated with them, as opposed to taking control of the whole of the SCS...I believe the situation can be diffused, because it would allow the others to maintain their principle interests and the US to continue with the free passage for commerce and resources for itself and its allies.

We know that, jeff, since new reclamation given them advantage in disputed, but they're still given good words about cooperation, even to invited USA and other countries to use their facilities in Paracel, they want to change status quo and made new de facto.
USA had to reject that, I think the same response from other parties.

Go big or go home. No one stopping you from doing the same right? Oh...it's the budget.."dem it Jim..I'm a doctor not a contradiction". Sorry I have to do my Dr. McCoy Star Trek impersonation there.:D

Like I said, Vietnam and the others building only improve their position, so the budget was not the problem, but China had the big turn.
You may not notice, but Chinese announced "fishing ban" again, with more logistic support in Spratly, restriction areas will be expand larger, and clash could be happen, more possible.
 

shen

Senior Member
Guys...we need to settlee down.

China wants to lay claim to the whole of it and that, I do not believe, is going to be able to fly.

That's a common misconception.

This book came out after Philippines' case for arbitration.
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you can find some excerpts online.
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It is the unofficial Chinese response to the legal arguments presented by the Filipino case. In the book, the authors analyzed Chinese domestic laws and came to the conclusion that China is claiming the island groups within the nine dash line and 12nm territorial zone around the island groups. The open ocean in between are considered international water by the Chinese government.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
That's a common misconception.

This book came out after Philippines' case for arbitration.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


you can find some excerpts online.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


It is the unofficial Chinese response to the legal arguments presented by the Filipino case. In the book, the authors analyzed Chinese domestic laws and came to the conclusion that China is claiming the island groups within the nine dash line and 12nm territorial zone around the island groups. The open ocean in between are considered international water by the Chinese government.

I also agree that is probably the Chinese official stance as well, given they have not challenged any ships that enter any open ocean in the 9 dash line as entering "chinese territory" -- but rather seem to have used the 12nm zone around islands instead.

So the question is why China hasn't directly clarified this to everyone, and why the media and relevant govts around the world have not pointed this out clearly and directly and sought clarification.
 

shen

Senior Member
I also agree that is probably the Chinese official stance as well, given they have not challenged any ships that enter any open ocean in the 9 dash line as entering "chinese territory" -- but rather seem to have used the 12nm zone around islands instead.

So the question is why China hasn't directly clarified this to everyone, and why the media and relevant govts around the world have not pointed this out clearly and directly and sought clarification.

I think the most important reason why China haven't clarified the claim is domestic politics. PRC inherited the SCS claim made by ROC many decades before UNLOS. Every Chinese schoolkids grew up with the map with nine dash line in the class room. The average people wouldn't be familiar with the UNLOS principle that open ocean can't be claimed as national territory. For the government to clarify the claim would be seen as giving up a large chunk of territory. Domestic nationalists and opportunists can also take advantage of the situation to make trouble for the government. Note that ROC haven't clarified its official claim as well. If one does it'll probably make it easier for the other to do it, or jointly do it together.
 
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