2014 Ukrainian Maidan Revolt: News, Views, Photos & Videos

[SinoSoldier]

I am going to stick my neck out and say that I see a deal coming and fairly soon.

I have suspected the quiet of last week, masked a lot of closed doors activity as the great powers sort out the mess that is Ukraine.

Today suddenly there is a flurry of announcements and it seems to fit a pattern.

My guess is that last week Putin sent a message to his opponents, that he now has two Independent Republics and a request to join the Russian Federation in his hand. The west could therefore negotiate with him now or he could pocket what he was holding and come back when he had similar offers from other Regions.

Most media is reporting today that Putin has ordered the Russian Army back to their permanent bases and Itar Tass report that Kiev has agreed now to negotiate with the break away republics.

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There are also reports of other public talks now being planned between Russia and the West.

Reading other news today from the breakaway republics, it also seems likely that as matters progress and they acquire or otherwise set up, the physical and administrative trappings of statehood, that getting them tor return to previous condition of region will become progressively more difficult. This is therefore another ticking time bomb which Kiev will have no move quickly with regards if it wished to "disarm" it.

All this talk and sudden turn in Russian politics are hinting at a potential weakness Moscow is exhibiting. In technical terms, Russia has all the resources needed to immediately and effectively incorporate these two republics into its territory. Russia, from what it claims where the poll results, would seemingly get all the public support as well. The Ukrainian military and NATO's garrison in Poland and Romania simply do not hold a candle to the Bear. So why has the Kremlin been so wary about actually doing the annexation?

It could be perhaps the referendum results weren't as smooth as Moscow claims them to be. If the country incorporates territories whose inhabitants were not as willing to embrace the Kremlin's grasp as willing as the country thought they would be, they now have an internal military problem. Many are now claiming that those polls were rigged. And it wouldn't be surprising if there's a significant number of people who wish to see the status quo remain. Moscow wouldn't want that. Equally likely would be that Moscow still does not wish to harm business relations with the west. Much of the country's development lies with foreign direct investment. One can be sure that FDI slumped along with onset of the Ukraine crisis, and that is not conductive during a time when Moscow is pushing its companies to invest abroad and calling for outward expansion.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Correction: Putin is an elected president, not a dictator. The main difference with many US presidents is that he was better prepared for the job. He had been prime minister and governor of Sankt Peterburg after his carrier in KGB.

Just because one was elected doesn't mean the individual is the legitimate representative of the populace, much like how polls are not always the best indicator of a people's willingness to be annexed.

 

[SinoSoldier]

If you bothered to read a few posts back, see that 2 maps and its analysis, you should have a bigger picture of why Putin got what he came for and that'd benefit Russia in the years to come...that is, unless in a few years time humanity discovered alternate energy that can finally throw fossil fuel and internal combustion engine into the history. That said, command the source of fossil fuel will continue to be the centrepiece of power games in Realpolitik.

All the oil under the seas may seem to be a great incentive for Moscow's iron-handed intervention, but it's not even remotely definite that Moscow was willing to risk running an insurgency near its borders while ruining its relations with the much more prominent West just for a drop of hydrocarbon which pales in comparison to the reserves that already lie directly under Moscow's foot.

And there's the upcoming election in Ukraine, if Putin play it hard, the more hardline the candidate will be more likely get the vote, then less room to work for all sides; it's just like Taiwan's elections, now Beijing learned to shut up during the season, so both sides left to slug out with old ammo instead of something new.

It's also a double edged blade. If Moscow allows Kiev to go radical, it would only strengthen Moscow's claims of the "legitimacy" of its territorial pursuit. Also, Moscow would be very wary to lay off the pressure during a time when the opposition is not comprised mostly of old men in suits sitting in chairs, but rather youngsters armed with rifles who couldn't care less about politics than their own agenda about what they consider to be a "perfect" Ukraine.

Putin ain't that useless drunk Yeltsin was, he ain't that stupid and not in a hurry to push for Russian's version of "manifested destiny" if they got one. Federalisation of Ukraine could be a reality if a more moderate candidate gets elected and might be easier to sell to the masses if the masses sees Russia can be reasoned with and only muscled in when they push Russia against the wall. In the end, Federalisation will leave Ukraine effectively chopped into two, the more prosperous Eastern (and pro-Russia) and the still broken Western. EU will definitely don't want an arse-broke new member to burden them anymore as it is, and the US won't be able to cough up real support for the "Western-bit" for the years to come. Thus Ukraine will eventually wise up, and so will Kiev in turn.

That's the long-term game plan Russia is pushing for, as such it'd be the best for Putin to pull back a little, and he did.

Ah, but currently Moscow is being pushed against the wall. The Kiev government has labelled all pro Russian operators as "terrorists" and they seem to have no qualms about letting loose serious war crimes against Russian supporters. It's pretty clear that any backing down would only strengthen the insurgency against the annexation and make the occupiers look uncommitted, hence why this sudden turnaround in foreign policy is unlikely to be a pre-calculated move.

 

[delft]

Just because one was elected doesn't mean the individual is the legitimate representative of the populace, much like how polls are not always the best indicator of a people's willingness to be annexed.

True. You might look to the polls on popularity. Can you mention a Western president/prime minister more popular in his/her country than Putin is in Russia?

 

[Broccoli]

True. You might look to the polls on popularity. Can you mention a Western president/prime minister more popular in his/her country than Putin is in Russia?

In a real democracy you rarely see any leader having 80-90% popularity like you see in Russia or Syria. Especially since Russian mainstream media is anything but independent... something what many people criticizing western media tend to "forget".

 

[delft]

In a real democracy you rarely see any leader having 80-90% popularity like you see in Russia or Syria. Especially since Russian mainstream media is anything but independent... something what many people criticizing western media tend to "forget".

Western mainstream media aren't independent either. You can read plenty of complaints about that on our forum.
Besides organisations like Pew also poll the people in Russia. Have they a much lower popularity for Putin in Russia?
And you can't compare Syria. The people there have good reason to prefer Assad over the "leaders" sponsored by US and KSA.

 

[delft]

A Dutch radio journalist just reported from Maidan square that many people in Kiev do not trust any of the candidates for the elections of next Sunday, even those who know which candidate they will vote for.

 

[Jura The idiot]

Who Is the Sheriff of the Town of Donetsk?

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"my take on it" http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mem...s-views-photos-videos-95-6796.html#post282245

 

[Jura The idiot]

Photo Gallery of Ukrainian Presidential Candidates:

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Click on the image and you'll see what (s)he declared as (my quick translation):

Total 2013 Income: of the Candidate -- of His/Her Family (I think this concerns only the spouse)

At Bank Accounts:

Estates (in square meters, for Americans one thousand square meters is about one quarter of acre):

Total Area of Apartments/Houses:

Number of Cars:

 

[SampanViking]

Who Is the Sheriff of the Town of Donetsk?

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"my take on it" http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/mem...s-views-photos-videos-95-6796.html#post282245

My direct experience of billionaire Oligarchs is a little limited, but I think I understand the mindset well enough to be able to believe that Mr Akhetov only has best interests at heart. The best interest of course of Mr Rinat Akhmetov.

The Ukraine's richest man they say and with substantial Industrial Interests in the Donbass. I remember the amusement that the pictures of a protester in Mediaeval armour caused, when photographed in Odessa. Mr Akhmetov seems to see himself in similar fashion, even as a Feudal Baron, calling upon his serfs to come out and fight for his cause. Duke Akhmetov of Steel maybe?

I do wonder what this guys motivation is? The easy answer is probably concern at finding himself blacklisted if the Donbass becomes an Independent entity, unrecognised by the west and his companies sanctioned in the stand off. Alternatively he may be confident of continuing lucrative deals with Russia and think that the new Republic of Donbass needed a new President. Maybe he had a very particular candidate in mind for the job.

The protest today in Donetsk seem quite small, but then, the early Pro Federalists protests were quite modest as well.

EDIT - just seen this

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Which is the Chicken and which is the egg?
END EDIT

Overall though, the day seemed to start quite promisingly with the Russian media being actually quite positive of the Ukrainian Rada passing a Memorandum of Peace and Accord, which seems to contain the seeds of de-escalation and Federalisation, the kind of deal in fact that I was expecting and to which I alluded on Monday.

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Others however seem less enthralled at the prospect and find this the perfect time to throw a "random" spanner in the works.

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"Many a slip twixt cup and lip" as they say. We will have to see how this all plays out and if it actually leads anywhere.