East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[latenlazy]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

...Everyone knows this is probably related to the Iran nuclear deal right? Japan has been pretty uneasy with the US's long term commitments to its allies for the last several years, and especially after the Syria debacle those concerns became somewhat inflamed. This was just further exacerbated by the recent reporting that the US kept Israel and Saudi Arabia in the dark about their backdoor dealings with Iran. Sending B-52s over China's newly declared ADIZ is a way for the US to show Japan that their security commitments to Japan can be taken seriously.

I'm a little surprised that we didn't even get an angry statement from China's MoFA, but not by the overall lack of a substantive response. If I had to venture a guess, China probably read the political tea leaves and figured it's much better for the US to reinforce its credibility with Japan so that they have greater leverage to rein Japan in when things get really tense. In fact, allowing the US to assert a superficial posture over the islands could even give Abe room to step back or slow down his escalation and save face domestically, if that's something Abe is ready to pursue (though I think not). They probably saw something like this coming a mile away. It's even possible they got a backdoor cue about this happening as the negotiations with Iran were wrapping up.

 

[FarkTypeSoldier]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

I think with US move, now China knows that USA will back Japan if conflict erupted regarding Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. By sending bomber and on the article it says:

Did China know that USA planned the exercise, and therefore setup ADIZ before the planned exercise?
If that is the case, I think China gains valuable insight right now. China get to know what USA will do (before that USA only gave vague respond whether will be involved or not).

China strategists will now involve USA action if they try to take Diaoyu/Senkaku islands by force.

Let us refresh back. China wants to get peaceful resolution regarding the Islands. China says there is a dispute, but Japan says no dispute. Therefore Japan already close the path to peaceful resolution. So what path can China take now beside enforce it using power? Remember this island dispute is not a recent problem, it already mentioned during the 1970s when China-Japan normalize their relations.

Excellent view... my sentiments exactly. With US involvement means a new detailed plan and scenarios in times of war to skirmishes to minor clashes.

Whatever the Chinese will do still waits to be seen but I reckon it won't be a withdrawn of the Chinese ADIZ or back down politically.

My 0.02...

 

[Brumby]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

However, if it is meant to be a brinkmanships game aimed specifically at preventing Japan from conducting its maritime patrols of those Islands it is administering, in the ongoing dispute, and thus change the status quo...then yes. I think it is a mistake. It will send a message and cause not only Japan (and by extension the US) to resist it strongly, but it will also serve as a rallying point for South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, etc. to take the same message and work together to resist it.

I don't see it as a brinkmanship on the part of China. Personally I think it is a smart calculated political move. The establishment of the ADIZ by China enables it to neutralize Japan's sole control of the airspace over the disputed islands. It may result in both countries challenging each other over the same airspace but if there is no further escalation it is merely a Mexican standoff but by default Japan will have lost sole control of that airspace.

 

[Blackstone]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

...Everyone knows this is probably related to the Iran nuclear deal right? Japan has been pretty uneasy with the US's long term commitments to its allies for the last several years, and especially after the Syria debacle those concerns became somewhat inflamed. This was just further exacerbated by the recent reporting that the US kept Israel and Saudi Arabia in the dark about their backdoor dealings with Iran. Sending B-52s over China's newly declared ADIZ is a way for the US to show Japan that their security commitments to Japan can be taken seriously.

It's a truism of this world that things long divided will surely unite, and things long united will surely divide- Romance of the Three Kingdoms by Lou Guanzhong

England has no long-term allies, only long-term interests- (paraphrasing) Lord Palmerston

 

[Cyclist]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

China is playing

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and not poker. The ADIZ move isn't a bluff, but another stone in the Great Power game. Will it succeed in eventually winning the game is debatable, but it most likely isn't a bluff.

I agree completely with this analogy. As in weiqi, each stone has a purpose. By setting up ADIZ, I believe China put a stone at quite remarkable place. It was an elegant move.

 

[Blackstone]

Re: World News Thread & Breaking News!!

US does not want lasting damage in relationship between US and China beyond what is necessary to protect current US position in the pacific. Abe would like his tough stand against China to save his prime ministership from his failure to implement any significant structural reforms he promised. For Abe, the more he seem to "win", the less he has to deliver on structure reforms without losing his seat. So far he has delivered nothing and no one seem to think he could deliver anything on this front.

I take it you're not a big fan of the third arrow?

 

[xiabonan]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

This thing is very bizarre at this stage. There's no any kind of reaction from the Chinese side. Usually even if China does want to back down, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will still say something. This time, nothing.

Even if there's really no reaction, everything is still too early to judge. The ADIZ is only there for a few days, and not everything is in its optimal state I would say.

It is almost a given however, this kind of incidents will happen more often in the future, be it Japanese aircrafts or American ones. We'll see the real intention and response by the Chinese in the long way to come.

 

[chuck731]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

So you're saying America's territorial airspace equals its ADIZ??

Do you mean this:

Or perhaps this:

You know of course, if I prove to you that US ADIZ requirements is as severe or more severe than China's, then your entire argument falls apart, seeing as your argument hinges on the idea that China's ADIZ is unreasonable and that a couple of B-52s entering the ADIZ means China has lost face.

Of course Russian Tu-95s constantly enter America's Alaskan ADIZ which has virtually identical rules as China's ADIZ, so I suppose you would agree that America is constantly losing face every time a bear enters its ADIZ?

No. Not all of American ADIZ is American territorial airspace. But the requirement to file flight plans and maintain two way air traffic communication is enforced only over the part of ADIZ that actually is part of American territorial airspace. America does not require foreign air flights in American AZID but outside US territorial airspace to do anything unless it Enters or intends to enter American territorial airspace.

I am a pilot, I know.

America does of course harass Russian bombers that enter us ADIZ. There are bilateral "runs of the road" agreements between the US and USSR on how Russian bombers ought to behave in US AZID, but outside US territorial airspace, to avoid unintended incidents. But that is not a generalized American requirement on any foreign flight in American ADIZ outside American territorial air space. Since America requires nothing, it stands to lose nothing if the foreign aircraft doesn't do anything. AFAIK, no Russian bomber ever actually entered American territorial airspace without following generalized American ADIZ rules.

China imposes an requirement on any foreign aircraft in its self declared ADIZ outside its territorial airspace. Since china explicitly requires something, china stands to lose face at least if foreign aircraft does nothing and china can't do anything about it.

There is actually nothing unreasonable per se in china's demand that foreign aircraft obey its rules in Chinese declare ADIZ outside Chinese territorial airspace. Other countries (but not the US) also does it. But being reasonable and being smart are two different things.

It is not smart to declare an intention to enforce an ADIZ outside your territorial airspace, then fail to do so when foreign aircraft flaunt your rules and you can't do anything about it.

 

[Schumacher]

Re: First US incursion in new chinese ADIZ: no reaction from china

Did the B52s fly into the ADIZ or the official say they did ? A photo of the islands would have been nice.

 

[bd popeye]

Re: US incursion in new Chinese ADIZ: no reaction from China

Even if there's really no reaction, everything is still too early to judge. The ADIZ is only there for a few days, and not everything is in its optimal state I would say.

If that's the case China should have not issued this statement until they were 100% ready to defend their ADIZ;

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People's Liberation Army air force spokesman Shen Jinke said two scouting planes have completed the zone's first patrol with the support of surveillance and fighters.

The military is capable of effectively controlling the zone, Shen said. It will not influence international airlines' flights, he said.