Chinese semiconductor thread II

Michael90

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Main question
Is the source legit? Or is it "people familiar with the matter"?
If true, then expect a visit to CXMT by Gov't officials pretty soon.
They will not tolerate in fighting during a tech war.
I don’t think it’s a fight per se. I believe it’s more like CXMT telling Huawei they will not be treated specially from other Chinese companies(something Huawei demanded) and offered a lower price for their chips . Plus seems CXMT is wary of Huawei and her affiliated companies from stealing their tech while building their own parallel memory chips .

To me it seems more like a normal business conflict . They are still cooperating though as the article mentions, just that CXMT seems to be taking some precaution to protect her core technology and freedom to charge a uniform price without Favor. So I see nothing wrong here. If the Chinese government want to start intervening in normal market dispute/operations then that will spell the beginning of decline for China . Huawei should get used to the fact that they are just another tech company in China , no reason for another Chinese company to Favour them over the others(from what I’ve heard Huawei often seems to think otherwise, reason many tech companies used to not like Huawei that much ).
Afterall, CXMT basically has a monopoly in China in her sector and is the only one who offers such a critical product in China(don’t forget that they had to keep investing and persisting for years despite heavy losses they faced when the country/industry considered memory chips a low value business and many avoided investing there ).
 
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MortyandRick

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I don’t think it’s a fight per se. I believe it’s more like CXMT telling Huawei they will not be treated specially from other Chinese companies(something Huawei demanded) and offered a lower price for their chips . Plus seems CXMT is wary of Huawei and her affiliated companies from stealing their tech while building their own parallel memory chips .

To me it seems more like a normal business conflict . They are still cooperating though as the article mentions, just that CXMT seems to be taking some precaution to protect her core technology and freedom to charge a uniform price without Favor. So I see nothing wrong here. If the Chinese government want to start intervening in normal market dispute/operations then that will spell the beginning of decline for China . Huawei should get used to the fact that they are just another tech company in China , no reason for another Chinese company to Favour them over the others(from what I’ve heard Huawei often seems to think otherwise, reason many tech companies used to not like Huawei that much ).
Afterall, CXMT basically has a monopoly in China in her sector and is the only one who offers such a critical product in China(don’t forget that they had to keep investing and persisting for years despite heavy losses they faced when the country/industry considered memory chips a low value business and many avoided investing there ).
Sure that may be the case if it stays just a pricing dispute. But if this dispute causes conflict, impacts R&D and impacts China's drive for further self sufficiency in then I believe they will intervene, just like they intervened between Huawei poaching SMEE engineers.
 

Michael90

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Sure that may be the case if it stays just a pricing dispute. But if this dispute causes conflict, impacts R&D and impacts China's drive for further self sufficiency in then I believe they will intervene, just like they intervened between Huawei poaching SMEE engineers.
Obviously if they do something that’s against national security then that’s a different matter altogether and the government will obviously intervene in that case, just like any country’s government would, no surprise there. However I don’t see them doing that, they are not stupid .

Huawei just have to get used to being the ted as any other tech company I guess. CXMT has grown and will be growing so crazy so fast that they will soon dwarfs Huawei’s revenues by the end of next year actually and they will be by far the most profitable company in china . So they will soon earn up even bigger than Huawei. Guess they will be respectful towards them by then . lol
Looking at estimates and when all their fans under construction come online , CXMT could even be as valuable as all Chinese semiconductor company combined (excluding Huawei/YMTC) a few years from now if this shortage persists(which I think it would for years to come as AI becomes even more critical for countries around the world ). Don’t forget that their IPO set for tomorrow could make them the biggest company in China itself (dwarfing state owned ICBC bank monopolies ). So companies like Huawei need to start being more considerate and respectful in their demands towards them . lol
 

FriedButter

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China memory chipmaker CXMT skyrockets 500% in blockbuster Shanghai debut​

Shares of chipmaker Changxin Technology Group rose more than 500% Monday as they debuted on Shanghai’s tech-heavy STAR Market, making CXMT the most valuable China-listed company.

The Hefei-based company raised 57.92 billion yuan ($8.6 billion) after pricing its IPO at 8.66 yuan per share, making it Asia’s biggest so far this year.

CXMT shares were last trading at 52 yuan, giving the company a market cap of about 3.5 trillion yuan.

Based on sales figures for the fourth quarter of 2025, CXMT held a 7.67% share of the global DRAM market in 2025, according to its IPO prospectus. DRAM chips are used in electronic devices ranging from smartphones to servers.

The global DRAM market is dominated by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology.

“I have no doubt the company is going to grow to be a global leader. It’s maybe just a question of time that it can be not only a challenger, it can be a global champion in this particular sector,” said Theodore Shou, CEO at Yiyi Capital on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

The listing comes at a time when CXMT has seen increased attention, following reports earlier this month that Apple has begun testing the Chinese chipmaker’s DRAM for devices sold in China.

CXMT swung to an operating profit of 35.43 billion yuan in the first quarter from a loss of 2.83 billion yuan a year earlier, as it saw continued growth in global computing power demand and capacity allocation by major manufacturers.

“A 470% performance on day one isn’t that rare. What’s very prominent in this particular case is a company of this size performing so well,” Shou said. In the past, such performance was primarily driven by smaller-cap companies, he said, adding that for CXMT, the relatively limited free float on day one, combined with the built-up market sentiment, were key factors driving the surge.

Morningstar said in a note Friday that as AI is increasingly becoming an issue of national security for China, CXMT will likely be a key beneficiary. The research firm added that while CXMT’s technology still lags global memory leaders, domestic internet giants spearheading AI development will likely drive robust adoption of its chips as Beijing pushes for semiconductor self-sufficiency.

CXMT, founded in 2016 by Chairman Zhu Yiming, plans to boost its technological capabilities and core competitiveness, primarily memory wafer mass production and R&D projects, by employing the IPO proceeds, according to a Google translation of the information in the prospectus.

“I think we are nearing a short-term peak in terms of sentiment around the memory cycle,” Shou warned, adding that investors have already been selling into the IPO, particularly in China. “These memory chip businesses are sustainable, but the great margins and net profitability we’re seeing today are not sustainable and have to normalize over a cycle,” he said.

He also added that while this may not be the peak for share prices, the market is right at the peak of a demand and supply imbalance.
 

mst

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CHIP STOCKS DROP ON CHINA DUV REPORT. ASML and U.S. chip equipment stocks fell after a report said a state-backed Chinese firm has begun mass-producing domestic DUV lithography machines: The Information.

Investors fear the breakthrough could reduce China's reliance on ASML and other Western suppliers, weakening future sales and undermining the long-term impact of U.S. export restrictions.
 

mst

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An unnamed state-backed Shanghai company is targeting roughly five systems this year and 20 in 2027, with initial deliveries planned for SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT. For comparison,
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shipped 131 immersion DUV systems last year. The machines use mostly Chinese components, though some key parts still come from Japan. They also trail ASML’s systems in performance and build quality and may require months of testing before entering chipmakers’ production lines. This is not an immediate threat to ASML, but it marks progress in China’s effort to localize critical chipmaking equipment as Western restrictions tighten. China’s domestic EUV program remains at the prototype stage and is likely years from producing working chips. Source: The Information.
> Planning 5 DUV machines 2026
> Planning 20 tools in 2027
 
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Michael90

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CXMT opened at ¥49.50 vs its IPO price of ¥8.66.

CXMT became the most valuable company listed in mainland China, overtaking ICBC.

CXMT's market value surged to about 3.3 Trillion RMB ($487B).
Yes , that’s not a surprise at all. In fact I believe they should be even bigger than this this coming year. Afterall they still have a large market demand they can’t meet, so their upcoming fabs under construction will only increase their revenue even more, plus they are trying to upgrade their chips and catch up with SK Hynix and Samsung /micron in HBM which is an even more lucrative field. To be honest, I see no reason why CXMT market cap can’t get close to a trillion this coming years like SK Hynix, produced they catch up technologically and in scale (which they are doing both ). So future is bright for them unlike any other CB obese tech company actually. Maybe only YMTC could have close to a similar upside .
 

meedicx

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An unnamed state-backed Shanghai company is targeting roughly five systems this year and 20 in 2027, with initial deliveries planned for SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT. For comparison,
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shipped 131 immersion DUV systems last year. The machines use mostly Chinese components, though some key parts still come from Japan. They also trail ASML’s systems in performance and build quality and may require months of testing before entering chipmakers’ production lines. This is not an immediate threat to ASML, but it marks progress in China’s effort to localize critical chipmaking equipment as Western restrictions tighten. China’s domestic EUV program remains at the prototype stage and is likely years from producing working chips. Source: The Information.
> Planning 5 DUV machines 2026
> Planning 20 tools in 2027

Lots of smoke earlier this year including this statement at the Tongji university graduation speech (now redacted from the transcript)
In May 2025, the team delivered its first ArF immersion lithography machine to SMIC. With the help of multiple exposure processes, it can stably support the production of chips with a process of 7nm and above, breaking the long-term monopoly of foreign countries in the field of high-end front-end lithography equipment and achieving a historic leap in the research and development and manufacturing of high-end lithography machines in my country.

Also this aligns with Beijing Yandong fab mass producing 28nm process in 2026H2 with fully domestic equipment.
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And Beijing Guowang announcing they have component orders for 5 DUV machines this year
 
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