J-20... The New Generation Fighter

[EDIATH]

Re: New Generation Fighter

SAC too? It's a party!

Seriously, PLAAF can't equip that many types of new fighters (J12,14,16,20...), unless industry lobbyists have really worked their way into the system, another sign of Americanisation?? I guess most of those projects were early stage proposals from various firms, only rumors make a great deal out of them, not even half of which would make it to the prototype stage let along entering service.

Agree with Deino, Better wait & see...

 

[Roger604]

Re: New Generation Fighter

This image comes to mind when the rumor of the the rumored Shenyang J-16 multi role fighter comes up. Maybe the "JH-X" handle does not apply here. Perhaps this is the new Shenyang J-16(?)

It seems that JH-X would be a competitor design to J-16. They would perform the same strike fighter role. The blurb on Huitong's site suggests SAC may have won out over XAC. The rumors of JH-X then ceased.

But the fact that he made that mistake only leads me to believe that the J-16 does exist. He wrote that SAC submitted a design in competition with CAC, but SAC lost the competition for the J-XX. Instead, they modified the design, simplified it a bit, and decided to build a 4++ naval fighter out of it. That same design can serve in the air force, therefore, the aircraft that huitong mistakenly thought was the J-15 actually is the J-16, a stealthy flanker to serve as China's F-18 E/F competitor and to serve as a stopgap between the J-11B and the J-20.

That is a very compelling account that takes into account politics too. It makes perfect sense.

PLAN needs a strike fighter platform to succeed the J-11B, J-11BS and JH-7A. The low RCS of stealthy J-16 makes it the perfect choice. If the aircraft carrier can use a future variant of the J-16, then that is great too.

I wonder if any XAC technology for the JH-X will end up in J-16. I bet there are a lot of young minds at SAC who want to break away from conservative thinking of older technicians and do something innovative. I would like to see a cross between an F-35 and a flanker (twin-engined F-35?).

 

[Munir]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Sorry guys ... but these are all BS rumours !

IMO there's only one 5. generation type under development - the so called XXJ, JXX or maybe now J-20.

Maybe SAC and also CAC have their own projects / studies in parallel for a lighter - maybe J-10 successor - but surely not with the same status. Maybe there's also one at work on XAC to replace the JH-7/A ...

Everything else like these J-13, J-14 and now J-16 aka "Silent Flanker" are based on overoptimistic hyper-enthusiastic fan-boy's-rumours or some PSed pictures + CG's.

I would say let us be realistic, ... let us sit down take a cup of tee ... and wait.

Deino

Most valuable and realistic post. Sehr gut.

 

[Centrist]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Of course I am only speculating, but huitong is rarely wrong. I have been following his site for years, if there is a rumor posted on his site...well 9 times out of 10 it turns out to be true.

Also, I never said that China had another 5th gen fighter project, I still only believe that the J-20 will be in that category.

A few years back it was reported that a Chinese naval official stated that China needed super-cruising advanced fighters in its navy. That, combined with the rumor of a "semi-stealth" fighter as a successor to the J-15, seems to suggests that such a program exists. In fact, this would be the same path the US followed. The F-18E/F is not a brand new design, but a radically improved version based off the F-18C/D. If China hopes to compete with the US, they will need an F-18 E/F equivalent.

Now, I am only speculating now, but there are at least 50 Su-27s that need to be retired, combined with hundreds of J-8E, J-8IIB, J-8IIHs that will be taken out of service by 2020. Either China contines to build J-11B's to replace them...and/or they build improved versions based on the naval fighter I was just talking about. The J-20 is not entering service until 2018, something is needed to fill the gap. If you notice, the PLAAF still doesn't seem enthusiastic about the J-11B.

 

[Blitzo]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Of course I am only speculating, but huitong is rarely wrong. I have been following his site for years, if there is a rumor posted on his site...well 9 times out of 10 it turns out to be true.

Also, I never said that China had another 5th gen fighter project, I still only believe that the J-20 will be in that category.

A few years back it was reported that a Chinese naval official stated that China needed super-cruising advanced fighters in its navy. That, combined with the rumor of a "semi-stealth" fighter as a successor to the J-15, seems to suggests that such a program exists. In fact, this would be the same path the US followed. The F-18E/F is not a brand new design, but a radically improved version based off the F-18C/D. If China hopes to compete with the US, they will need an F-18 E/F equivalent.

Now, I am only speculating now, but there are at least 50 Su-27s that need to be retired, combined with hundreds of J-8E, J-8IIB, J-8IIHs that will be taken out of service by 2020. Either China contines to build J-11B's to replace them...and/or they build improved versions based on the naval fighter I was just talking about. The J-20 is not entering service until 2018, something is needed to fill the gap. If you notice, the PLAAF still doesn't seem enthusiastic about the J-11B.

To be fair the J-15/Su-33, manufactured with modern materials and installed with modern avionics could very easily become a competitor with the super hornet imho.

Sorry guys ... but these are all BS rumours !

IMO there's only one 5. generation type under development - the so called XXJ, JXX or maybe now J-20.

Maybe SAC and also CAC have their own projects / studies in parallel for a lighter - maybe J-10 successor - but surely not with the same status. Maybe there's also one at work on XAC to replace the JH-7/A ...

Everything else like these J-13, J-14 and now J-16 aka "Silent Flanker" are based on overoptimistic hyper-enthusiastic fan-boy's-rumours or some PSed pictures + CG's.

I would say let us be realistic, ... let us sit down take a cup of tee ... and wait.

Deino

I agree a lot of the J-12, J-13, J-14 and what not are all fanboy designations, but I think the fact that huitong mentioned J-16 as a possible rumor... Doesn't mean it's true of course, but makes it slightly more valid than those other fanboys.
We'll just have to wait and keep an open mind.

 

[Deino]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Agreed .. and I have to admit that I've missed Huitong's update on this thing.

As such I agree again, even if I still have my own "strange" feelings about the reliabilities of these rumours.

Otherwise such a type would make perfect sense ... to replace the J-8 and complement the current high-low combo J-11 (later J-20) and J-10.
BUT ... I also have my daubts about the possibility to afford so many different types simultaniously

J-11 ---> J-11B (as You said, an interim update) ---> and finally the XXJ/J-20
J-10 ---> J-10B ---> to be superseded by this "rumour type"

But then again yet another type in the class of the Flanker doesn't make sense; as You said better would be a Super Hornet alike (like this generic J-13) ... but if the "J-16" is based on the Flanker it would be another heavy type.

I think i have to calm down and really sit and wait.

Deino

 

[kwaigonegin]

Re: New Generation Fighter

Of course they are rumors Dieno; and Huitong mentioned a "3.5th" generation aircraft, and not a 5th generation type. I take most rumors with a lot of salt and I always have a 'wait - and - see - policy' too. But sometimes rumors - even BS ones - have a tendency to be true - well maybe only sometimes. ;-)

that would be an incorrect assumption. China's classification of aircraft generation is not the same as what we think it is.
3.5 generation in huitong's site most probably meant 4.5 in western world.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Re: New Generation Fighter

that would be an incorrect assumption. China's classification of aircraft generation is not the same as what we think it is.
3.5 generation in huitong's site most probably meant 4.5 in western world.

I think spoiler knows the difference. He wouldn't have put 3.5 in quotes if he didn't.

 

[Spoiler56]

Re: New Generation Fighter

I was only quoting what it says on Huitong's site, and he states that the mystery aircraft is a heavy type and that it is a "3.5" generation - that would indicate a much improved J-11 or Su-27 type. And there is a remote possibility that it is a tandem two seat type and that it is multi-role. And like others have stated here earlier, Huitong's site is very reliable source of information - and even he states that it is only an un-confirmed rumor. But very possible. It does not state anywhere that this mystery Shenyang combat aircraft will be a competitor to the Chengdu J-20

 

[Roger604]

Re: New Generation Fighter

The more I think about it, the more I think it won't be a stealthy flanker. Huitong's site says conventional layout. That just means it's not a canard delta. The role demanded sounds more like F-35 (adaptable, navy capable). But SAC has experience mostly with twin-engines. So I expect the J-16 to look something like a cross between T-50 and F-35.