2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[abenomics12345]

If you think the US economy can currently withstand such an impact, then I have nothing more to say.

From October 1973 to March 1974, the price of oil increased by approximately 300%.

The price trajectory during the crisis moved as follows:

• Pre-Embargo (October 1973): Roughly $3.00 per barrel.
• Post-Embargo (January 1974): Roughly $11.65 per barrel.

Trump: All those sovereign debt that China holds? Inflate it away!

 

[Puss in Boots]

From October 1973 to March 1974, the price of oil increased by approximately 300%.

The price trajectory during the crisis moved as follows:

• Pre-Embargo (October 1973): Roughly $3.00 per barrel.
• Post-Embargo (January 1974): Roughly $11.65 per barrel.

Trump: All those sovereign debt that China holds? Inflate it away!

 

[abenomics12345]

View attachment 173438

Would US inflation *not* reduce the real value of Chinese positions in US Treasuries?

 

[TK3600]

I mean like I said I agree with your framing, I too also prefer to do business and focus on the economy and not have to worry about war with the US but we have a lunatic in the White House.

My original question still stands- does China pay or does it not pay? And China refuses to pay and does not send an escort fleet and we have Yinhe 2.0 - what's next?

If China acquiesces to this, what's to prevent Trump from recognizing Taiwan Independence? What's next?

The answer is asymetrical retaliation. If US seize Chinese tankers, then attack US where it is weak. Do not send fleet to middle east. Total ban on rare earth is a start. Giving Iran anti ship ballistic missiles. Embargo Taiwan who supply US with electronics. Hitting US bases in Pacific if necessary. There are too many ways China could cook Americans without fighting where Americans are strong at.

 

[Puss in Boots]

Would US inflation *not* reduce the real value of Chinese positions in US Treasuries?

This behavior is akin to stabbing oneself with a knife and then asking others if they're scared.

If the US is willing to allow its own inflation simply to lower the value of Chinese government bonds, then I think that as long as the US continues to do this, China wouldn't mind giving up all of its US Treasury bonds.

 

[abenomics12345]

The answer is asymetrical retaliation. If US seize Chinese tankers, then attack US where it is weak. Do not send fleet to middle east. Total ban on rare earth is a start. Giving Iran anti ship ballistic missiles. Embargo Taiwan who supply US with electronics. Hitting US bases in Pacific if necessary. There are too many ways China could cook Americans without fighting where Americans are strong at.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I mean its pretty clear this is the framing from Tom Cotton.

 

[GZDRefugee]

The answer is asymetrical retaliation. If US seize Chinese tankers, then attack US where it is weak. Do not send fleet to middle east. Total ban on rare earth is a start. Giving Iran anti ship ballistic missiles. Embargo Taiwan who supply US with electronics. Hitting US bases in Pacific if necessary. There are too many ways China could cook Americans without fighting where Americans are strong at.

INDOPACOM is cooked if a Taiwan contingency kicks off right now. Might as well bite the bullet and go all in on armed reunification.

 

[another505]

It would be a big escalation for PRC to send a fleet to escort their oil supply but it is a chance to win over SEA nations and Korea by also escorting their oil ships at the same time. This might actually make Trump back off as it will piss off everyone and we saw how Trump back off the trade war with China.

Hilariously, could intentionally leave out Japan hanging as further pressure against their current prime minister.

As far as I know, we have a naval supply base on Djibouti and a small supply base in Cambodia. , years of experiences in escort duty in the Gulf of Aden. Sufficient enough for escort duty. Not enough for naval battle with US over the Indian Ocean but if they do dare that. We strike INDOPACOM and Taiwan.

 

[TK3600]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I mean its pretty clear this is the framing from Tom Cotton.

Who give a fuck about what they say. The strategy I proposed work regardless what they think.

Besides, you are assuming politicians are honest on TV. In fact, I hardly believe the "hitting Iran to harm China" narrative. It revolves around Israel first and foremost. Otherwise they would not waste all their high end munition designed for China on low value Iranian targets. They relocated THAAD from Asia which only lasted a few week in Middle East, the same THAAD that China protested economically but failed to remove. Nah, this is a net benefit to China, the politicians are lying it has a higher purpose(on China) when in reality it is just a grift toward their Israeli sponsors.

 

[abenomics12345]

It would be a big escalation for PRC to send a fleet to escort their oil supply but it is a chance to win over SEA nations by also escorting their oil ships at the same time. This might actually make Trump back off as it will piss off everyone and we saw how Trump back off the trade war with China.

Might as well go all in - escort Korean oil as well. For Japan - if they agree to STFU about TW / demolish Yasukuni they can participate as well.

Who give a fuck about what they say. The strategy I proposed work regardless what they think.

Besides, you are assuming politicians are honest on TV. In fact, I hardly believe the "hitting Iran to harm China" narrative. It revolves around Israel first and foremost. Otherwise they would not waste all their high end munition designed for China on low value Iranian targets. They relocated THAAD from Asia which only lasted a few week in Middle East, the same THAAD that China protested economically but failed to remove. Nah, this is a net benefit to China, the politicians are lying it has a higher purpose(on China) when in reality it is just a grift toward their Israeli sponsors.

Chill the fk out dude. Adam Tooze proposed the strategy 3 weeks ago.

Of course another one would be what

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

- that China suspends RE exports to the everyone else in the world until this conflict is resolved. Good luck making missiles without RE.