2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

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Paradigm

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Addressing Plawolf on "nuclear parity".

Speaking of nuclear parity, Russia and China have upgraded their land based missiles and added new variants over time. In the same timeframe since the 1970s, the US still depends on Minuteman 3 and Trident 2 SLBM up till today. There are no news if IBM Series 1 and hardwares of its time have been discarded and replaced. We get an article or two every now and then describing parts with names of manufacturers long defunct. These are US nuclear mainstays until the Sentinel arrives after 2030 if one believes they will built to initial spec, be on time and on budget.

So can we say for sure Russia and US has approximately 5000 nukes each and China has 500 heading to 1000 by 2030? Or is all this a blind assumption we keep hearing decade after decade especially the former two countries.

Importantly today, how many working nukes do each of these three countries have when discussing nuclear parity? If you apply Sun Tzu, then one may be exergerating it's numbers while the other may be understating it's stockpiles.
 
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Serb

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If Iran is already winning without China flooding it with large quantities of fully Chinese-made drones and missiles, for example, then imagine what happens if that ever changes, even slightly. At that point, Trump would basically just be inviting even more humiliation onto himself and the US - giving China full justification.

Iran is not isolated. It borders nearly a dozen countries by land. China-Iran rail transit already hit record levels last year, more than 5 million tonnes, moving through friendly territory in roughly 15 days.

And this is not like last year’s trade war, where China answered with rare earth restrictions and other economic pressure. Seizing Chinese ships this time would be a direct kinetic act of war, 100%, in the real world.

And when China responds, it will respond in the smartest way possible, not by playing to America’s naval far seas strengths, but by using its own real advantage, enormous manufacturing scale. And various types of offensive and defensive weapons are exactly what Iran needs to finish the job of destroying the US even faster and cleaner.

China could really flood Iran with MANPADS to down even more US planes, better anti-ship missiles to break a "blockade," and FPV drones for the ground war. While ballistic strikes at GCC with Chinese missiles carry risks, hitting Israel harder serves one goal: forcing the US to capitulate faster. Given the massive scale of China’s arsenal, supplying Iran with enough firepower to execute the US would barely even dent its stockpiles.
 
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protonme18

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There's so many ways China can hit back at US, don't even direct kinetic action. US been trying to pull China in each time, as this the mess they created and pulling China into the mud. Don't wrestle with a pig already in the mud. China can halt/board US related tankers in SCS, deliveries of goods, stopping the grain/soybean import/raise the tariffs, stop issuing rare earth licenses to US companies, reduce the quotas, dump more US treasuries....so many ways stop short of firing missiles at US navy ship itself. Just an oil tanker, how much is that anyway.....get the equivalent monetary version and just dump it. If that tanker Iran oil shipment is 200 million per ship, just dump equivalent 200 million US treasury in the market....if that tanker is 100 million oil ship, just drop order equivalent of 100 million soy bean order from US and take order from elsewhere....so so many ways
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

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tankphobia said:
I don't see how getting potentially drawn into ww3 with US is preferable to just blocking RE exports. Also, there's not much for the US navy to shoot at right now, push comes to shove you're basically asking for the Chinese escort fleet to get sunk by a far superior force in the area.
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Because INDOPACOM would get cooked in a shooting war against China right now. Trading an escort for permanent expulsion of the US from the West Pacific is highly favourable. Should WW3 break out right now, the US would lose simply due to munitions depletion and nonexistent industrial base for replenishment.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
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GZDRefugee said:
Because INDOPACOM would get cooked in a shooting war against China right now. Trading an escort for permanent expulsion of the US from the West Pacific is highly favourable. Should WW3 break out right now, the US would lose simply due to munitions depletion and nonexistent industrial base for replenishment.
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I think you're being a bit too optimistic.

The collapse of empires often begins from within; forcibly breaching them from the outside before the time is right usually results in mutual destruction.

China is not in a hurry; it should be patient.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Serb said:
If Iran is already winning without China flooding it with large quantities of fully Chinese-made drones and missiles, for example, then imagine what happens if that ever changes, even slightly. At that point, Trump would basically just be inviting even more humiliation onto himself and the US - giving China full justification.

Iran is not isolated. It borders nearly a dozen countries by land. China-Iran rail transit already hit record levels last year, more than 5 million tonnes, moving through friendly territory in roughly 15 days.

And this is not like last year’s trade war, where China answered with rare earth restrictions and other economic pressure. Seizing Chinese ships this time would be a direct kinetic act of war, 100%, in the real world.

And when China responds, it will respond in the smartest way possible, not by playing to America’s naval far seas strengths, but by using its own real advantage, enormous manufacturing scale. And various types of offensive and defensive weapons are exactly what Iran needs to finish the job of destroying the US even faster and cleaner.

China could really flood Iran with MANPADS to down even more US planes, better anti-ship missiles to break a "blockade," and FPV drones for the ground war. While ballistic strikes at GCC with Chinese missiles carry risks, hitting Israel harder serves one goal: forcing the US to capitulate faster. Given the massive scale of China’s arsenal, supplying Iran with enough firepower to execute the US would barely even dent its stockpiles.
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From a purely self interested POV, China should hold off on supplying Iran with lethal aid until after the US has committed itself to a ground war and becomes effectively trapped in the situation. Then and only then should China open the floodgates to maximise US bleeding.

Sending arms to Iran too early would actually be detrimental to Chinese broad strategic interests as it would risk scaring off the US into not blundering into a ground war.

Until then, I would expect China to play a delicate balancing act of giving Iran just enough support to keep them on side and effective in combat without tipping the scales too far in Iran’s favour that Trump TACOs and just runs away.
 
GZDRefugee

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
Puss in Boots said:
I think you're being a bit too optimistic.

The collapse of empires often begins from within; forcibly breaching them from the outside before the time is right usually results in mutual destruction.

China is not in a hurry; it should be patient.
Click to expand...
You have to consider:
  1. US allies in the West Pacific are economically and politically weaker than before this poorly planned war against Iran
  2. Between INDOPACOM assets being transferred to CENTCOM, bases in the West Pacific are also less hardened and have less layered AD than the ones in the Gulf
  3. US carrier individual sortie generation rates are a tenth of what was achieved during Desert Storm due to being held at standoff distance by the threat of ASBM
  4. Iran deployed more MRBMs in one month than estimates of the entire Chinese stockpile
  5. China has an actually capable air force that is numerically superior within the First Island Chain
INDOPACOM would get cooked within days.

Why is MAD even on the table? The US knows how screwed they are and will let the PLAN escorted merchant vessel through the blockade. That in itself is a win because it demonstrates to the world that the US blockade is a joke. And now China is the guarantor of freedom of navigation and trade on the oceans while the US has been reduced to piracy. The optics alone would be disastrous for the US.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
You have to consider:
  1. US allies in the West Pacific are economically and politically weaker than before this poorly planned war against Iran
  2. Between INDOPACOM assets being transferred to CENTCOM, bases in the West Pacific are also less hardened and have less layered AD than the ones in the Gulf
  3. US carrier individual sortie generation rates are a tenth of what was achieved during Desert Storm due to being held at standoff distance by the threat of ASBM
  4. Iran deployed more MRBMs in one month than estimates of the entire Chinese stockpile
  5. China has an actually capable air force that is numerically superior within the First Island Chain
INDOPACOM would get cooked within days.

Why is MAD even on the table? The US knows how screwed they are and will let the PLAN escorted merchant vessel through the blockade. That in itself is a win because it demonstrates to the world that the US blockade is a joke. And now China is the guarantor of freedom of navigation and trade on the oceans while the US has been reduced to piracy. The optics alone would be disastrous for the US.
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The United States still possesses a massive nuclear arsenal, especially given that the person in the White House is notoriously unpredictable.

While the US military isn't as formidable as it once was, it's still a force to be reckoned with; underestimating it would be irresponsible.

Steady, methodical development is sufficient; there's no need for such pointless risks.

兵者，国之大事，死生之地，存亡之道，不可不察也！

The very first sentence of Sun Tzu's Art of War makes this very clear.

Those who don't study Chinese may find it difficult to truly grasp the weight of this statement.
 
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Ringsword

Senior Member
Registered Member
GZDRefugee said:
You have to consider:
  1. US allies in the West Pacific are economically and politically weaker than before this poorly planned war against Iran
  2. Between INDOPACOM assets being transferred to CENTCOM, bases in the West Pacific are also less hardened and have less layered AD than the ones in the Gulf
  3. US carrier individual sortie generation rates are a tenth of what was achieved during Desert Storm due to being held at standoff distance by the threat of ASBM
  4. Iran deployed more MRBMs in one month than estimates of the entire Chinese stockpile
  5. China has an actually capable air force that is numerically superior within the First Island Chain
INDOPACOM would get cooked within days.

Why is MAD even on the table? The US knows how screwed they are and will let the PLAN escorted merchant vessel through the blockade. That in itself is a win because it demonstrates to the world that the US blockade is a joke. And now China is the guarantor of freedom of navigation and trade on the oceans while the US has been reduced to piracy. The optics alone would be disastrous for the US.
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Still I very much want the PLARF to fill the other 800 silos in the NW of China as its been reported that approximately 100 of them has been loaded with DF31-AG series ICBM's-even single wahead versions would be acceptable but the reported 3 warhead MIRV'ed version would be much more satisfactory and give China a powerful 2700 warhead count ,mounted in modern missiles based in modern hardened siloes.
 
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