Future PLAN orbat discussion

Engineer

Major
Of course there is a need for nuclear endurance. unless China builds more overseas naval bases for replenishment, it will have a difficult time competing in Indian ocean or beyond the second island chain against US navy which has both plentiful replenishment bases and nuclear endurance. Just don't bother competing at this point if you are so focused on optimizing a losing proposal.
The lack of oversea naval bases can only be resolved by building oversea naval bases.

The common misconception a lot of people have is that nuclear propulsion gives a ship infinite endurance. What people don't take into account is that the crew still need food and aircraft still needs fuel, so the endurance of the carrier will last until whatever runs out the soonest. Even if we were to assume a nuclear carrier has infinite endurance, the escorts won't.

If nuclear propulsion were so great, US and Soviet Union would have went with all-nuclear fleets. And they tried, only to realise how bad of an idea that actually was. The US sticks with nuclear carriers not because nuclear propulsion is wonderful, but because of entrenched interests, essentially suffering from 体制问题 and not something that China should emulate.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
The lack of oversea naval bases can only be resolved by building oversea naval bases.

The common misconception a lot of people have is that nuclear propulsion gives a ship infinite endurance. What people don't take into account is that the crew still need food and aircraft still needs fuel, so the endurance of the carrier will last until whatever runs out the soonest. Even if we were to assume a nuclear carrier has infinite endurance, the escorts won't.

Both you and Phead are correct -- you are correct in the sense that nuclear propulsion does not provide infinite endurance because a ship always has other consumables and the task force will inevitably have non-nuclear escorts.

However Phead is also correct in the sense that a nuclear powered carrier does still provide benefits to a task force in terms of endurance wholesale. He did not write it himself, so I will write it -- but the fact that a nuclear powered carrier does not need to undergo underway refuelling for its own propulsion/transit needs is a non-trivial advantage, especially in context of sustaining higher speeds.

The benefit for a task force (which is composed of conventionally powered escorts) is the reduced need to refuel the nuclear carrier relative to if it was conventional.



If nuclear propulsion were so great, US and Soviet Union would have went with all-nuclear fleets. And they tried, only to realise how bad of an idea that actually was. The US sticks with nuclear carriers not because nuclear propulsion is wonderful, but because of entrenched interests, essentially suffering from 体制问题 and not something that China should emulate.

A bit of a false equivalency -- nuclear propulsion being viable and sensible for some types of platforms (such as aircraft carriers of certain roles, and SSNs or SSBNs) doesn't mean it is mandatory/desirable/cost-effective for every type of vessel.

I think it is important for people who are supportive of the idea or skeptical of the idea, of a nuclear powered supercarrier to recognize that it nuclear propulsion's advantages are not all encompassing --- but also that the its more limited advantages for certain vessel types can still make it valuable to pursue.

In the case of the PLAN, the primary benefits of nuclear propulsion relate to reduced refuellling frequency needs compared to conventional carriers (as well as additional free volume for aviation fuel or other components), and overall logistical benefits to the taskforce.
When the biggest vessel doesn’t require refuelling for its own transit needs, it means you only need to refuel the carrier for its aviation fuel, which can mean the difference between needing additional replenishment ships for the task force. Meanwhile consumable dry stores can be done via vertrep or underway replenishment if needed (if one is expending munitions; food is somewhat more easy to anticipate).

Nuclear propulsion for a carrier as part of a task force that is otherwise conventional, doesn't obviate the need for a solid logistical support component, but it may significantly reduce the scale of it.
 
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no_name

Colonel
IMO China will not build purely military bases like the US, but military-commercial dual area bases, for a number of advantages.

It will have a bit of everything. Small as the sparrow, all it's organs are there.
 

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
IMO China will not build purely military bases like the US, but military-commercial dual area bases, for a number of advantages.

It will have a bit of everything. Small as the sparrow, all it's organs are there.
Well, for a effective base for carriers you'd probably want a airfield of some kind nearby to keep and maintain naval aircraft when the carrier pulls into port for permanent stationing. It could either be separate from the naval port to together but these facilities are going to be pretty big. I suppose if they can somehow build a dual use airport aboard it could work but naval port will likely be restricted and military only.
 

cornerodriguez

New Member
Registered Member
La falta de bases navales en el extranjero sólo puede resolverse mediante la construcción de bases navales en el extranjero.

La idea errónea que muchos tienen es que la propulsión nuclear otorga a un buque una autonomía infinita. Lo que no se tiene en cuenta es que la tripulación sigue necesitando comida y los aviones siguen necesitando combustible, por lo que la autonomía del portaaviones durará hasta que se agote lo que antes se agote. Incluso si asumiéramos que un portaaviones nuclear tiene una autonomía infinita, las escoltas no la tendrán.

Si la propulsión nuclear fuera tan poderosa, Estados Unidos y la Unión Soviética habrían optado por flotas totalmente nucleares. Y lo intentaron, solo para darse cuenta de lo pésima que era la idea. Estados Unidos se mantiene fiel a los portaaviones nucleares no porque la propulsión nuclear sea maravillosa, sino por intereses arraigados, que en esencia sufren de una "proliferación nuclear" y no son algo que China deba emular.
Otra razón es la ventaja de ahorrar espacio en los tanques de combustible del barco para dirigirlo hacia los aviones.
 

Engineer

Major
A bit of a false equivalency -- nuclear propulsion being viable and sensible for some types of platforms (such as aircraft carriers of certain roles, and SSNs or SSBNs) doesn't mean it is mandatory/desirable/cost-effective for every type of vessel.
No, I do not believe I made false equivalency there. Nuclear propulsion being "viable" for aircraft carriers has only been an assumption, and even if such assumption held that does not translate to being advantageous. US GAO's 1994 report comparing conventional vs. nuclear carrier concluded that nuclear carriers cost more yet don't do anything that conventional carriers can't do.

In the case of the PLAN, the primary benefits of nuclear propulsion relate to reduced refuellling frequency needs compared to conventional carriers (as well as additional free volume for aviation fuel or other components), and overall logistical benefits to the taskforce.
When the biggest vessel doesn’t require refuelling for its own transit needs, it means you only need to refuel the carrier for its aviation fuel, which can mean the difference between needing additional replenishment ships for the task force. Meanwhile consumable dry stores can be done via vertrep or underway replenishment if needed (if one is expending munitions; food is somewhat more easy to anticipate).

Nuclear propulsion for a carrier as part of a task force that is otherwise conventional, doesn't obviate the need for a solid logistical support component, but it may significantly reduce the scale of it.
This has also been covered by GAO's report. Most of the fuel consumption in a task force comes from escorts, not the carrier, as the carrier has higher fuel capacity and is more fuel efficent. Conventional carriers can go ten days before having fuel drop to 30%, a level when refueling becomes mandatory. Operationally, there was no difference in replenishment frequency, as conventional and nuclear carriers both underwent replenishment every 2-3 days.

The elimination of supplying a carrier's own fuel would only bring about a slight benefit, as in it would be noticable only after two weeks of deployment. However, there isn't really a reduced logistical burden, as the burden merely got shifted to shore-based facilities. Benefits that incur penalties elsewhere are not really benefits in my opinion.

Ultimately, China has to build at least one nuclear carrier to run the number themselves. However, the assumption that nuclear propulsion being "viable" for aircraft carrier is just that — an assumption.
 

Engineer

Major
Otra razón es la ventaja de ahorrar espacio en los tanques de combustible del barco para dirigirlo hacia los aviones.
That's another common misconception. Size of a ship is measured in displacement, and nuclear carriers haul around huge amount of Lead which takes up displacement. Think of it as trading 3000 tons of fuel for 3000 tons of Lead, resulting in zero extra displacement for storage.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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No, I do not believe I made false equivalency there. Nuclear propulsion being "viable" for aircraft carriers has only been an assumption, and even if such assumption held that does not translate to being advantageous. US GAO's 1994 report comparing conventional vs. nuclear carrier concluded that nuclear carriers cost more yet don't do anything that conventional carriers can't do.

The false equivalency exists in the sense that CVNs, SSNs and SSBNs continue to exist in service in the world's preeminent navy while past nuclear surface combatants no longer are.

From memory, the GAO outcome was that CVNs have higher life cycle costs than CVs and have higher maintenance requirements than CVs, but CVNs can sustain longer distance transits at higher speeds than CVs, with better acceleration, and transit indefinitely without having to replenish its own propulsion fuel, but all else is held equal assuming the CVN and CV alternative designs are equal.
There are also certain factors that the GAO looked at which are not quite as material to the PLAN, such as USN operating their carriers in relatively permissive environments even say, in the Gulf War, as well as having a larger refuelling fleet that was able to be comprehensively operated and defended with minimal risk of targeting which the PLAN may not have the benefit of in a high end conflict.



This has also been covered by GAO's report. Most of the fuel consumption in a task force comes from escorts, not the carrier, as the carrier has higher fuel capacity and is more fuel efficent. Conventional carriers can go ten days before having fuel drop to 30%, a level when refueling becomes mandatory. Operationally, there was no difference in replenishment frequency, as conventional and nuclear carriers both underwent replenishment every 2-3 days.

The elimination of supplying a carrier's own fuel would only bring about a slight benefit, as in it would be noticable only after two weeks of deployment. However, there isn't really a reduced logistical burden, as the burden merely got shifted to shore-based facilities. Benefits that incur penalties elsewhere are not really benefits in my opinion.

Ultimately, China has to build at least one nuclear carrier to run the number themselves. However, the assumption that nuclear propulsion being "viable" for aircraft carrier is just that — an assumption.

Considering the world's leading carrier navy has continued to procure CVNs as its primary carrier force, the term "viable" is pretty reasonable as a baseline to operate from.
It's valid to say that it is yet to be determined if CVNs or CVs or a combination thereof, is "preferred" for the PLAN's future carrier fleet composition, but in the specific case of 004 being built at Dalian we are going based off the same workbook as we always have --- credible rumours, images, and reasoning. And thus far its identity is being pointed much more likely to being a CVN than CV.


As far as eliminating a carrier's own fuel for its onboard propulsion goes -- ideally that can be determined by knowing how frequently AOEs/AORs would be required to sustain maximal endurance patrols in context of HIC settings.
The problem for the PLAN is in a high intensity conflict they'll have to assume their AOEs/AORs are likely going to be high value targets. Even if they have the AOE/AOR hulls to adequately supply a CVN or a CV CSG in peacetime, whether they have sufficient escorts to accompany the replenishment ships and sufficient replenishment ships to enable a CVN or CV to operate at equal cadence/endurance should be the major advantage/disadvantage in carrier propulsion choice.

One of the meaningful differences the GAO report considered was this part comparing a CVN CSG and CV CSG holding as much equal as possible:
"We compared the endurance of a notional conventional carrier battle group to a nuclear carrier battle group using Navy fuel and ordnance consumption rates contained in a 1993 Center for Naval Analyses report.26 The notional battle groups we used consisted of either a conventional or nuclear carrier, plus two Ticonderoga-class Aegis guided missile cruisers (CG-47/52s), two Spruance-class destroyers (DD-963s), and two Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyers (DDG-51s). Each battle group was supported by one Sacramento-class supply ship (AOE-1). We estimated that the conventional battle group would have enough (1) fuel to steam for 29 days, (2) aviation fuel to operate at a tempo comparable to the final days of Desert Storm for 17 days, and (3) aircraft ordnance for 30 days. The conventional escorts of the nuclear carrier battle group would have enough fuel to steam for 34 days, while the nuclear carrier would have enough (1) aviation fuel to operate at a tempo comparable to the final days of Desert Storm for 23 days and (2) ordnance to operate for 41 days."

The CVN CSG had fuel to steam for 34 days vs CV CSG for 29 days, aviation fuel for 23 days vs 17 days, ordnance of 41 days vs 30 days.

How much of that can be accounted for by holding design consistent is a different question (such as ordnance and aviation fuel, as USN CVNs were designed a bit larger than their largest CV counterpart), as we would have to consider whether the PLAN could build a conventionally powered ship with the same footprint as a CVN as well.... in which case the most significant difference would be the "fuel to steam" difference of 34 vs 29 days.
Is that difference of 5 days worthwhile? For a LIC, I would say it probably isn't. For a HIC, I am less sure.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
If nuclear propulsion were so great, US and Soviet Union would have went with all-nuclear fleets.
Yes, US went with an all-nuclear supercarrier fleet. You just proved our point! Yes, they are so great, that's why all US aircraft carriers have nuclear propulsion.

Whether a dinghy boat or littoral ship lacks nuclear propulsion is a red herring argument and irrelevant to carrier propulsion discussion at hand.

The US sticks with nuclear carriers not because nuclear propulsion is wonderful, but because of entrenched interests, essentially suffering from 体制问题 and not something that China should emulate.
China is not a dirt poor country anymore, it can afford luxury items like nuclear carriers without blinking an eye. GAO points out diminishing returns, but GAO also recognizes US can absorb the costs ten times over, so it's almost a rounding error as far as Pentagon is concerned.
 
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