Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Simple math - when demand growth > supply growth, prices go up. That the anti-involution process is working is actually confirmation that there was, indeed, involution.
Recall from :
And recall from 12 months ago:
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They should just order participation trophies off Temu.
China collapse coming...........
not in this and the following decade though. After that, maybe due to the aging of the population. whether industrial robots can effectively substitute tens of millions of workers annually remains to be seen. It will be very hard for china to escape the middle income trap as population ages rapidly and exports are hindered by the USA and EU. Some american commentators have suggested that china will peak in the 2030s. Let's see what happens.
China's technological capabilities will reach the world's highest standards within the next decade. Even under the worst-case scenario of losing its grip on low-to-mid-tier manufacturing, China will still command control over the world's most profitable high-tech industries. Per capita GDP holds limited significance; excessively high per capita GDP provides only marginal boosts to economic growth while incurring additional social costs. What truly matters is technological advancement itself and the redistribution of wealth.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
In this or next decade? LOL 20 years is not even one generation; there are Chinese people from the first generation with a very low fertility rate still in their 30's working at peak power. China has 1.4 billion people. If the US hasn't collapsed from a population of 300M, how long will it take China to get there?
If they are not substituted, China's higher tech manufacturing and working population will still outperform any other nation.
What hindered? You flatter yourself. China's exports are growing regardless of what those 2 can muster up, and even before they harm China, they will tank their own economies... even further than now.
Also, China is already at the high end of upper-middle income. It is literally knocking on the door to high income country as high income was defined in 2024 by the World Bank as having a per capital GNI over $14K and China was at $13.66K last year.
And in case you were hopeful that Chinese GNI per capita is a stalled or barely growing metric, no it's not:
Some American commentators have suggested that China will collapse every year. 2030's doesn't even make sense; the first generation of low fertility people working thier hardest on thier careers, hyper-accelerating China's development at the expense of children will mostly be in their 40's. These are scientists, not physical laborers; scientists don't peak in their 40's, maybe in their 60's and up to their 80's sometimes. Don't get your hopes up.
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