If Tariffs don't work, they will use sanctions next. The more powerful China gets, the more desperate US and Europe will get and try to use whatever power they have including coups and invasions. US invaded south American countries many times during the cold war just to prevent Soviet friendly governments from being in power. It will start to happen again.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Hi,
Wait along the lines for some three years, looks like coming change in USA in next
elections Democrats will come back by that time all the DTs policy will be changed
around and likely to be Indian centric so let’s say by 2028 onward Indians might be
able to get better deal for F35, because even if they align with Russians today they
will get Su57 not before 2029/30 coz their network centric awacs are like on western
technology most of these how will they get along su57 with western awacs systems
and to get Russian awacs another couple of more years if not 5/7 years
thank you
Wait along the lines for some three years, looks like coming change in USA in next
elections Democrats will come back by that time all the DTs policy will be changed
around and likely to be Indian centric so let’s say by 2028 onward Indians might be
able to get better deal for F35, because even if they align with Russians today they
will get Su57 not before 2029/30 coz their network centric awacs are like on western
technology most of these how will they get along su57 with western awacs systems
and to get Russian awacs another couple of more years if not 5/7 years
thank you
They havnt been successful at the panama thing yet, infact Panana government is now suing the port owners (ofcourse because of US)
I feel like(i have no proof of this just my pov) (using ww2 analogy a bit) that the positions have flipped, the Industrial giant is China right now (vs usa in ww2) and desperate Usa(japan) might do a first strike reverse pearl harbour type of thing. It depends if the next us president is just as power-hungry and vindictive as trump or not.
Or if they realise /accept the multipolar world and 'exit pacific' and 'consolidate at home'
I don't think the PLAN uses USN strength to determine what their capability should be. They also know that it's utterly impossible for the US to activate more than about 6 carriers into the Western Pacific, and that China has no need to counter the Americans carrier for carrier. Instead, the PLAN and PLARF have access to anti-ship missile types that the Americans don't have, and these are ideal for knocking out CBGs.
The problem for India is that if they buy the F-35, then they end up being a US vassal. And as they have superpower ambitions, this is unacceptable to India. The good news is that India doesn't really have a network centric air system to begin with, so they can more or less start from scratch and not have to worry about supporting legacy systems. The bad news is that India doesn't have a network centric system, so it's a huge job to build it up; especially since it's unlikely that they'll find anyone to help them do it.
Right now, there's no appetite for an unprovoked attack on China, and this is unlikely to change in the future. The first factor for this is that the US needs allies, and these allies will abandon them if there's such an attack. The second is that a war like that is impossible to justify to the American people. Yes, they're mostly idiots and they'll believe almost anything, but that's simply not enough in this case. And the most important is that the American military is increasingly aware that they can't win. There's no way to do enough damage with a initial strike without using nuclear weapons, and the US will probably lose the subsequent war.
None of these factors will improve for the the US in the next few years, and it will be simply impossible by the inflection point. My guess is that this point will be around 2035, by which time China's military will be on par with the American one. Another way to gauge this is to look at the rhetoric coming from American military and political leaders. Right now, they're all about "deterrence" - when the Americans go for a different tact, this mmessaging will change.
I don't see a war in Trump's second term. If there's an imminent war, Trump and Xi wouldn't be inviting to see each other. A war between China and US will tank the stock market by 50% which the American people cannot afford to have. That will guarantee a GOP lost in the upcoming election.
Well atleast 6 then, and it depends if US will be able to use one of its european vassals to send help or not, And fair fair about anti-ship missiles, still I dont mean right now but a future one ( where assuming usn has finished more carriers and have fixed its issues so they can field more)
Yeah I dont mean right now at all, but in the future, From my pov it entirely depends on how the next few years play out from us-pov, if us's vassal states will actually spend 100's of bn's and let usa squeeze them, how de-dollarization plays out further.
Well just the dollar thing alone matters the most, if it drops enough /investors leave/move enough they are toast.
They will be able to sell to public, they are pretty good at selling things to their public(selling a genocide right now), assuming this will be life/death for the empire, nothing will hold them back,
And while I agree that actual us military personal prob know that China is peer now, politicians are ones that will make decisions, and they are very 'invincible' in their feelings. Imagine someone like Hegseth being the defsec at the time?
And I do believe if they do a reverse-pearl harbour they still start with first-strike tact nukes.
And fair about the messaging, but from my pov these are their 'early' days, the '1930 for gemany' if you will.
Oh not during Trump's term at all, nope.
From my pov Trump is the caesar paving the way for eventual augustus to finalize things down the line (more authoritarian control of usa)
Again this is just my pov
"Once upon a time, the Indian Navy did look into acquiring some Russian bombers; I believe they were Tu-95s. But that was for naval reconnaissance, not for interdiction."
To clarify, the Indian Navy did more than just "look into" obtaining Tu-95s. They in fact *did* procure and operate the Tu-142, the ASW/maritime reconnaissance variant/derivative of the Tu-95, from March 1988 to April 2017 (29 years).
On a fairer note, the IAF really does need to modernize, but the fighter force is the least of these needs. The first thing they really need to do is admit that they got their ass kicked on May 7 and properly analyze that battle so that they can fix their problems. Without first doing that, nothing they do is going to bring better results on the battlefield. I think the IAF gets this but they're not allowed to do what's necessary and the BJP and the Jai Hinds are the biggest impediment.
If they get past that, the IAF has so many issues to address: the weakness of their AWACS and EW aircraft is a massive problem. Once upon a time, letting enemy aircraft get within 200km of your own without knowing about it was an issue but not necessarily a lethal one, but that was before we knew the lethality of the Chinese kill chain. On the fighter side, getting 5th gen fighters might be good for prestige, but the pressing need is that India just doesn't have all that many 4.5 gen fighters either! Shockingly, the entirety of 4.5 gen fighters in the Indian inventory is 36-x Rafales. Technically, the Tejas is 4.5 gen, but nobody's going to consider putting in frontline combat against proper 4.5 gens. Other than that, the IAF is looking to upgrade some of their existing Su-30MKIs to 4.5, but that's probably going to take at least 5-10 years.
If they get past that, the IAF has so many issues to address: the weakness of their AWACS and EW aircraft is a massive problem. Once upon a time, letting enemy aircraft get within 200km of your own without knowing about it was an issue but not necessarily a lethal one, but that was before we knew the lethality of the Chinese kill chain. On the fighter side, getting 5th gen fighters might be good for prestige, but the pressing need is that India just doesn't have all that many 4.5 gen fighters either! Shockingly, the entirety of 4.5 gen fighters in the Indian inventory is 36-x Rafales. Technically, the Tejas is 4.5 gen, but nobody's going to consider putting in frontline combat against proper 4.5 gens. Other than that, the IAF is looking to upgrade some of their existing Su-30MKIs to 4.5, but that's probably going to take at least 5-10 years.
Launching a nuclear attack invites a nuclear response. The US won't do it.
Noted.
What in the world is India trying to accomplish by doing this? Philippines has an insignificant military so cooperating with them confers no benefits. And right now, Modi is trying to butter up to China as a counter to getting knocked around by the US. This plays against that, and it's only going to remind China that India isn't trustworthy.
There is nothing 4.5 Gen in the Tejas. You could argue Tejas MK 1A will be 4.5 Gen but it has not flown yet.
Russia has been trying to sell upgrades with the AL-41 and Irbis-E to India for many years. Make the Su-30 have the insides of a Su-35. It is the Indians who rejected them.
You need a radar like Irbis-E to have the sensor range to operate the R-37M properly, and to operate that radar you need better electric generation. Like the one the AL-41 engine provides.