2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[Michaelsinodef]

Considering my previous "one liner" post was deleted, let me elaborate. I had no more time yesterday.
People here forget that Iran is a poor country, that's under sanctions for decades. Their total GDP is about 340 bln USD or less than 4000 $ pc. So, no, they don't have a lot of money for anything. And that meager sum needs to be divided on 80 mil. population. For comparison, GDP of Israel is 580 bln. Divided on about 10 mil population.
A big part of that Iranian money comes from oil and gas. Iran has nothing to offer to the world except oil and gas. So, having said that, Iran pretending to be a some big power and causing conflicts with everyone from US, to UK, to Israel, to SA etc. is foolish to the extreme. It reminds me of a dog chasing cars. What happens when said dog really caught a car- a dead dog with minorly damaged car.
How serious country Iran is, they were working on a A-bomb for 20+ years, and were not able to build it. Damn Manhattan project that invented the damn thing managed to do it in about 3 years. And they didn't managed to do it in 20+ years, when everything is known how to do it?

Not getting the nuke is clearly an internal politics problem and not inability.

If their leadership truly wanted it from the very start (so no politics problem), then they would had it years ago.

But nope, clearly a problem where the leadership themselves fight over whether or not they even want it.

 

[abc123]

Not getting the nuke is clearly an internal politics problem and not inability.

If their leadership truly wanted it from the very start (so no politics problem), then they would had it years ago.

But nope, clearly a problem where the leadership themselves fight over whether or not they even want it.

So they built numerous over and under ground facilities for enrichment of uranium (that they don't need for civilian use), and spent a lot of money, just for lolz? Come on. You really believe in Fatwas and such nonsences?

 

[Michaelsinodef]

So they built numerous over and under ground facilities for enrichment of uranium (that they don't need for civilian use), and spent a lot of money, just for lolz? Come on. You really believe in Fatwas and such nonsences?

What is 'Fatwas'?

Also, why do you not think they can be building underground facilities and advance making researching/making nukes while the top leadership is infighting around the question of whether or not to have nukes? Or say use it as a bargain strategy?

 

[abc123]

What is 'Fatwas'?

Also, why do you not think they can be building underground facilities and advance making researching/making nukes while the top leadership is infighting around the question of whether or not to have nukes? Or say use it as a bargain strategy?

Fatwa is some sort of islamic legal opinion, from some authority, like Al Azhar university or Supreme Leader...

Yes, they used it excellently, as provoking a deadly attack from Israel. Great strategy.

 

[Fully Compliant]

Assuming that Iran missiles have also kept hitting IAF bases and we havent been getting footage due to censorship and how relatively isolated the bases are, how likely the IAF has dispersed and is actually operating from Jordan, Turkey, Syria and Saudi Arabia?

This is the same line trotted out during the last exchange but the damage to Israeli bases was minimal. If there was massive damage we'd see it in satellite imagery – there are no secrets anymore. You need to live in reality my dude.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Fatwa is some sort of islamic legal opinion, from some authority, like Al Azhar university or Supreme Leader...

Yes, they used it excellently, as provoking a deadly attack from Israel. Great strategy.

Did I ever say it was a great strategy lol?

Anyways, if you paid attention to Irans politics and last 20ish years of history.

The nuclear program has clearly been a matter of constant stop and go's reflecting leadership constantly changing their minds.
(hard liners getting elected/bigger voice pushing for it. And then the soft ones pushing for nuclear talks with US probably pasmusing or slowing it down etc.)

So like I said, an internal politics problem.

 

[obj 705A]

So they built numerous over and under ground facilities for enrichment of uranium (that they don't need for civilian use), and spent a lot of money, just for lolz? Come on. You really believe in Fatwas and such nonsences?

Iran is a nuclear threshold state meaning they can produce a nuke within a week or less whenever they want to. what prevents then from doing that is lack of political will and fear of American intervention.

 

[sequ]

Interview with Hajizadeh from 2019:

One of the questions by Mr. Maloof is in line with what you were discussing. It was rumored that it was not Iran's decision to down the drone, but one of the units did that on its own authority and he asks about the decision-making process and how can they create a rumor that the units did it on their own authority, is that even possible?

- (...)Look, we have directives that we issue to our units. For example, we specify if a plane in these circumstances, with these conditions, if entering such an area is closing in within a certain distance, you give a warning. But if it goes beyond certain conditions, you confront and down it. Naturally we have sets of authorities at the various levels of the Guards Corps, some on the command level and some on the unit level at the borders, in other words they have a set of authorities. (...)However, on matters of defense and air defense, it could be that a junior officer manning his post, when he identifies a situation and discovers something and sees that it is not a friendly force- has the duty to confront. He has this directive. This means that offensive systems have their own regulations and defensive systems are different than that. So, if authority is at a higher level in offensive systems, in defensive systems authority exists at lower levels. For example, I'm the commander of the Aerospace Force, after the drone was targeted and downed, I was informed and it was not the case that I was informed previously and it wasn't the case that I stayed up and was on alert in order to give orders. No, those units are at the border and decide themselves and have authority.

It was not clear to me whether they can fire at will or not?

- According to the directives, yes it was fire at will. For example, a few years ago we downed an Israeli spy plane which was over Natanz in the central part of the country and there as well, they had authority because it had entered their area. Naturally, they confronted it and downed it.

---

Well, what excuse will they come up with now? How didn't they see them coming from 1000 miles away with 10 OTH and 100 VHF radars?

 

[zyklon]

Israel can kill anyone in Iran, from prime minister to chief of staff. Anyone that survives is spared on purpose.

Are you implying that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is just political theater for embedding narratives that will prepare public opinion — both inside and outside of Iran — for inevitable regime change in Tehran?

If it keeps this way, Iran won't have any credible AD left and will be much more vulnerable to US intervention.

If Israel is asserting air superiority, if not air supremacy so easily over Iranian airspace, then there should and would be no need or reason for direct US intervention.

This war could become a catalyst for World War 3. Even now it already has global repercussions, impacting the planning, timing, and execution of numerous other Grand strategies in progress across many national capitals around the world. We should all continue watching this extremely closely.

Only if the Israelis successfully entice or drag the Trump administration into their shenanigans.

Say what you will about Trump's moral compass or lack thereof, but he is "no schmuck" who'll do the Israel Lobby's bidding for free.

If Trump is to authorize US intervention in support of Israel against Iran, Jewish-American donors subscribing to AIPAC recommendations are going to pay dearly for it (even though they might not mind at all).

Fatwa is some sort of islamic legal opinion, from some authority, like Al Azhar university or Supreme Leader...

Yes, they used it excellently, as provoking a deadly attack from Israel. Great strategy.

If you have to google what a fatwa is you probably should do more lurking and less posting.

 

[enroger]

Interview with Hajizadeh from 2019:

One of the questions by Mr. Maloof is in line with what you were discussing. It was rumored that it was not Iran's decision to down the drone, but one of the units did that on its own authority and he asks about the decision-making process and how can they create a rumor that the units did it on their own authority, is that even possible?

- (...)Look, we have directives that we issue to our units. For example, we specify if a plane in these circumstances, with these conditions, if entering such an area is closing in within a certain distance, you give a warning. But if it goes beyond certain conditions, you confront and down it. Naturally we have sets of authorities at the various levels of the Guards Corps, some on the command level and some on the unit level at the borders, in other words they have a set of authorities. (...)However, on matters of defense and air defense, it could be that a junior officer manning his post, when he identifies a situation and discovers something and sees that it is not a friendly force- has the duty to confront. He has this directive. This means that offensive systems have their own regulations and defensive systems are different than that. So, if authority is at a higher level in offensive systems, in defensive systems authority exists at lower levels. For example, I'm the commander of the Aerospace Force, after the drone was targeted and downed, I was informed and it was not the case that I was informed previously and it wasn't the case that I stayed up and was on alert in order to give orders. No, those units are at the border and decide themselves and have authority.

It was not clear to me whether they can fire at will or not?

- According to the directives, yes it was fire at will. For example, a few years ago we downed an Israeli spy plane which was over Natanz in the central part of the country and there as well, they had authority because it had entered their area. Naturally, they confronted it and downed it.

---

Well, what excuse will they come up with now? How didn't they see them coming from 1000 miles away with 10 OTH and 100 VHF radars?

It is still not clear what happened. A guess is that Israel took out their early warning systems via their infiltration team then follow by conventional airstrikes, at that point AD cannot function without early warning already.

Hell Israel even managed to smuggle in drones and ATGMs, maybe anti-radiation drones too, all pre located near identified radar sites