2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Iran invested A LOT in their domestic AD systems, they're on of 4 nations on Earth to even have their own theater level SAMs. I.e. not only they have such systems, there's even footage of bavar-373 FC radar stuck undeployed by Israeli drone team. And it isn't even the only one.
From what I understand Bavar-373 only entered service recently. There can't be that many systems.

They have two fully separate air defense branches, with one of them very specifically dedicated to ambush tactics aimed at preventing exactly what has just unfolded. Some of the older and more primitive of those systems are that gave Yemen it's notable resilience just months ago.
Iran did spend considerable resources developing these systems. The question is how many such systems they have.

And all of this investment appears to either be lost into thin air, or hiding. Second answer at this point doesn't make sense, Israeli aircraft making med altitude bombing runs over major population centers deep into Iran should be just the right targets for ambushes.
I think there are two possibilities: either Iranian CC was degraded, for example by jamming communications or hacking the air defense network, or that we are not getting the full picture.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
If Iran's AD / AA are completely offline, wouldn't it be game over for them already? Israel's jets could just simply fly around iran to scour for missile launchers/any potential targets

Range is an issue for both sides. Even with the collective EU and much of America’s tankers supporting them, the IAF cannot spend nearly enough time on station to even start putting together a campaign like that.

It’s quite clear that Iran was betrayed and sabotaged from the inside at the highest levels.

I would not be surprised if Iranian AD were given explicit orders not to engage or even power on in the initial phases of the Israeli sneak attack. And if there was that level of infiltration of the command echelon in Iran, the exact location of all of Iran’s AD systems were probably also sold to the Israelis to allow them to also perform a decapitation strike against Iranian AD. Hell, key Iranian AD assets may well have been ordered to predetermined positions out in the open to make it easier for the Israelis to do as much damage as possible in the opening attacks.

Iran is a deeply compromised society that is decades late in performing a deep and thorough purge of the traitors within. If they somehow survive this war, maybe they will finally find the backbone to do what is necessary to finally rid itself of the traitors within.
 

zyklon

Junior Member
Registered Member
And all of this investment appears to either be lost into thin air, or hiding. Second answer at this point doesn't make sense, Israeli aircraft making med altitude bombing runs over major population centers deep into Iran should be just the right targets for ambushes.

I think there are two possibilities: either Iranian CC was degraded, for example by jamming communications or hacking the air defense network, or that we are not getting the full picture.

Iran's IADS have likely been impeded by cyber vectors.

Even if Iranian AD resources are interconnected by a communications network that is physically separate from the interwebs, Mossad penetration of Iranian military bureaucracies should have likely availed Unit 8200 HUMINT enabled SIGINT targeting opportunities against classified Iranian intranets.
 

Fatty

Junior Member
Registered Member
Its an oil refinery per analysts and eyewitnesses

Israel used up its stockpiles very early on in the Gaza Genocide. Soon after, it began receiving munitions from NATO on dozens of daily flights that haven't yet stopped.

Israelis also don't shy away from fleeing to their ancestral homelands in Europe. Since almost all Israelis (except the Arabs) are foreigners, they always have this option in the back of their heads, totally unlike Iranis.

Hundreds of thousands flew away during the Gaza Genocide.



Closeup


Iron Dome is acting like Joe Biden

_____

This clip was posted couple pages ago but nobody caught the little detail (not even me): blackout!
One underrated aspect of this is that Israel is going to see a lot of brain drain in the coming years. Massive explosions in central Tel Aviv is not conducive to innovation or talent acquisition.
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
....even if doing so will convince the Israelis that they have no choice but to employ tactical nuclear weapons to destroy the UGFs essential to the Iranian nuclear program.
Tactical nukes can't destroy deeply buried hardened underground facilities because of low yield and lack of penetration power. It would require multiple direct hits with strategic nukes, and even that is not guaranteed if Iran takes extra precautions and makes it deep enough and extra hardened.

Basically there is nothing Israel airpower (or even American airpower) can do an except delay the nuclear program by few weeks or few months at best. Airpower, missiles, and drones can't help end the Ukraine war, I do not see a strategy except at hoping for US land-based intervention and regime change...which would be an insane gift to Chinese superpower status since 9/11.
 

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
As I said, their IADS got compromised. I bet the systems went offline by cyberattack. We'll probably hear more about it in the future. Otherwise I can't explain the non-activity of their SAM and radar network at all. It can't all be blamed on incompetency.
You can compromise AD network this way, but individual launchers and systems?
From what I understand Bavar-373 only entered service recently. There can't be that many systems.
Yes, but this is just theater system (one of two, there's also IRGCASF Mehran.
There were multiple IRCG sevom khordads, ADF khordads and armans... For many years in service.
 
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