2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
They didn't realize they will be slapped senseless on TV
Its not who starts the war that matters so much as who determines when and how its ended.
If Iran somehow outlasts Israel after weeks and even starts hitting targets that matter, Israel is really gonna start having buyers remorse on this thing.
But we will see. We are like only 2 days into it. Theres a long way to go.
I am skeptical Iran can outlast Israel the way it goes, despite all the size.
They had a single thing to do right, keep their air defenses alive. Somehow they lost them immediately.
What's the point of ambush doctrine, if it all gets taken out in known storage or operational points?
They had a single thing to do right, keep their air defenses alive. Somehow they lost them immediately.
What's the point of ambush doctrine, if it all gets taken out in known storage or operational points?
Iran never invested properly in air defense. They don't have their own S-300 level systems. They only bought like 5 batteries of s-300 from Russia after 20 years of back and forth.
Iran invested in extreme offense which is what they are doing now. Iran will take hits but it will hit back. Hopefully harder than Israel.
This is an implicit admission from the American ruling class that the Iranians were negotiating in good faith, but that the United States was not.
This inevitably gives neighboring Arab sheikhdoms — that have historically been allied with Washington and are obviously paying attention to how DC is handling Tehran — even more cause for not trusting the Beltway, especially when Israeli interests are at stake.
Conversely, a not insignificant number of Iranians — both ordinary citizens and elites — believe that nuclear weapons are the only thing that will save their country from Washington and Tel Aviv.
Case in point:
Not to say that the United States is as prepared to accept Iran as a nuclear power as easily as it acquiesced to North Korean nuclearization. However, as we saw in .
Israel has achieved an unexpected level of success in establishing air superiority over Iran, at least for now, but the general consensus is that the IDF lacks the requisite resources to physically dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israelis have admitted as much:
If Trump is a rational actor or rational enough, it would make sense for him to resist direct US entry into the conflict against Iran, even if doing so will convince the Israelis that they have no choice but to employ tactical nuclear weapons to destroy the UGFs essential to the Iranian nuclear program.
This isn't something pretty to think about, but there's a not insignificant chance that a nuclear weapon will be operationally detonated for the first time in 80 years, and there's no reason why Trump would or should stop the Israelis from annihilating whatever goodwill the rest of the world had left for them.
In fact, it makes total sense to let the Israelis create an ugly mess, and then for Trump to arrive with impeccable timing as the leader who restores regional peace.
The Israeli MoD isn't hiding under a civilian hospital.
If we're to be totally honest, the UGF under Ichilov Hospital belongs to what is effectively an "underground city" beneath Ha Kirya. Same concept as the network of bunkers under Moscow and Beijing.
Naturally, it makes sense for such an UGF network to have its own .
Last edited:
Iran invested A LOT in their domestic AD systems, they're on of 4 nations on Earth to even have their own theater level SAMs. I.e. not only they have such systems, there's even footage of bavar-373 FC radar stuck undeployed by Israeli drone team. And it isn't even the only one.
They have two fully separate air defense branches, with one of them very specifically dedicated to ambush tactics aimed at preventing exactly what has just unfolded. Some of the older and more primitive of those systems are that gave Yemen it's notable resilience just months ago.
And all of this investment appears to either be lost into thin air, or hiding. Second answer at this point doesn't make sense, Israeli aircraft making med altitude bombing runs over major population centers deep into Iran should be just the right targets for ambushes.
Making really good air defense is all about having very good radar tech and missile controlling precision tech. I doubt Iran has that. If they did, they will be employing it on their planes too.
Only US, Russia and China has that level of Air defense systems. Iran maybe trying to develop them but I don't think they are remotely there yet.
