Alright since its been a whole day now of this operation we can go over the results and outcomes. So far, it does not seem like Israel has achieved its strategic goals of pulling the US into the conflict, and Iran seems keen on keeping it that way, hence the complete silence of the PMFs in Iraq. They will likely have to escalate from this point forward given their inability to sustain this operation indefinitely. They need the US involved to take out Iran’s nuclear program, and only by backing the Iranian regime into a corner and forcing them to escalate can they achieve that.
Tactically, I’d say its pretty much a lopsided Israeli success. I dont think I need to rehash what the Israelis achieved with the strikes but to me its striking how disrupted C2 was for the Iranians. The fact that they were unable to bring their AD into play for the longest time, giving the Israelis complete dominance of their airspace is an indictment on how badly they were hit. In terms of the Iranian response, while they did score hits, I’ve yet to see any signs that they dealt the kind of damage that would prevent any Israeli retaliation. Indeed, we’ve seen Israeli jets immediately launch strikes in Iran in between missile salvos. The Iranians seem to mostly have been aiming for static, symbolic targets (ie Israeli MOD) rather than engaging in dynamic targeting. Goes to say something about their ISR and guidance systems. I’ll also say that there does seem to be a bottleneck on the amount of BM launchers Iran have due to Israeli sabotage and strikes, forcing them to launch numerous smaller salvos rather than larger ones that are more likely to overwhelm Israeli AD.
Looking to the future, its in both side’s interest to convince the other that they can keep up this operational tempo indefinitely, or long enough to deal grievous damage. For Iran I do think they should keep up the strikes and pressure hopefully to a point where the US steps in and pushes Israel to a ceasefire. Backing down is no longer an option, Iran should not be looking for any off ramps. Israel is intent on forcing a death by a thousand cuts, and if Iran lets them get away with this unscathed the next one on the chopping block will be Khamenei himself.
