PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

[tamsen_ikard]

Ukraine still has a fighting force because it borders several NATO countries. Supplies are not interrupted by Russian’s weak VKS.

All four Japanese main islands are within 1500km from China northeast. PLAAF can use H-6 and J-16 to continuously to drop glide bombs all day long


How useful are they? Maybe you should ask the Indian Air Force.

How many of American ships are mission capable? Where are the potential areas for fleet battles?

China can only disrupt supplies to US forces via the pacific if they defeat US navy in the high seas outside first island chain, for that they need the big advantage in numbers in both Carrier and destroyer force. Chinese Air force cannot fly its planes that far in the 2nd island chain without getting spotted by ground based patriot missiles (US has a 1000 launchers) and Air force in the 1st island chain choke points. So, China has to completely destroy everything in the first island chain. Can they do that with just 2000 rocket force missiles?

All four Japanese main islands are within 1500km from China northeast. PLAAF can use H-6 and J-16 to continuously to drop glide bombs all day long

So? How many airbases on Japan islands can survived combined assaults from PLAAF and PLARF?

In order to use glide bombs China has to first defeat the vast 3000+ 4th+5th gen Air force US+Japan+other allies are likely to bring. As I mentioned before, China lacks the numbers to destroy all of the air fields in Japan. Moreover, Air fields can be repaired easily. The most important items are the planes, and they can be hidden just like Ukraine has done. Ukraine has withstood 3 years of Russian bombardment without losing that many planes on the ground. Finally, if those planes survive, they can fly and land using Highways.

So, ultimately this fight will be decided by vast air battles. Or Russia-Ukraine war style grinding battles where Planes do not go on the offensive without getting shot down. Air forces only operate in the margins. It could happen to US vs China battle.

People here underestimate the vast numbers needed to fight US+allies vs China battle. It will be ww3 and will need that level of numbers in terms of missiles being spent or planes getting shot down. Yes, China can defend its air space and prevent US from attaining air superiority and getting bombed. But China also lacks the numbers to go on the offensive and achieve air superiority with the number of planes and missiles it has. It will likely devolve into a slow grinding attritional battle.

That's why I keep saying, China's 1.5% GDP for defense is simply not a serious budget. Its a peace time hide and bide budget. They are only moving up in the tech ladder but not producing enough numbers to fight a serious battle and win.

 

[tphuang]

Think:

Carrier strike groups
Bombers from Hawaii with a single in-flight refuelling
VLS cells from surface ships and submarines

The potential salvo sizes just look too large. Plus these can be sustained.

You continue to amaze me sometimes.

that's not a compliment

If US is fighting, then Japan is guaranteed also fighting or they are in the China camp. Neutrality is simply not an option.

Moreover, US and Japan and most likely also Australia, will disperse their force all over Japan in order to mitigate PLA rocket force strikes. Russia has fired thousands of missile and still they haven't been able to fully destroy Ukraine's air force, missile or any other significant military formation. This is due to dispersal and concealment.

China lacks the numbers to saturate Japan with rocket force. According to pentagon they have about 1000 launchers that can reach japan and about 2000 actual missiles. So, just 2 reloads per launcher. There is a reason for this, ballistic missiles are expensive.

the ballistic missiles are just to take out JMSDF, 7th fleet, major naval ports and runways + main command centers. They are not going to have enough missiles to permanently take out places, but they can certainly sink the ships and destroy aircraft in the hangars and tarmac. And take out the fuel depots for jet fuel. Depending on how much resistance Japan puts in, China may have to start attacking where jet fuel gets refined.

China lacks the necessary numbers in air force or rocket force to strike a vast country as Japan. So, they will have to fight it out in the air against combined US+Japan+Australia+Taiwan air power. Its like 4000+ fighter planes.

I have discussed this before that US can also bring not just active service planes, but also its vast arsenal of retired 4th gen planes from the boneyard. China doesn't have that stock. So, they must have a bigger active service planes to overcome this gap.

Finally, when it comes to the navy we cannot assume all naval battle will happen close to Chinese shores, China might be forced to fight in the high seas. WW1 and WW2 naval battles have shown that the navy with the bigger fleet usually wins. US has big carriers with 100s of planes per carrier. Yes, they cannot bring all 10 due to maintenance issues, But China can also not operate all of its carriers at a time. So, if US brings 5, China needs to be able to bring atleast 7-8 carriers. So, their total fleet needs be bigger than 10..

We have an entire thread on this. And the first part of it was pretty informative. I think for the current conversation, ti would be better if you actually put some effort into reading them.

I have to say that Patch actually corrected a lot of our views regarding just sustainment and how many aircraft carriers can get worked up and how long it takes.

You may want to look up what a typical USN fighter jet airing size look like, because it's not going to be 100s. I don't even know where to start when you stuff like that.

 

[ismellcopium]

the vast 3000+ 4th+5th gen Air force US+Japan+other allies are likely to bring

You can't expect anyone here to take you seriously if you continue to spout about the 3000 Black Fighter Jets of Trump smiting the PLA.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

You can't expect anyone here to take you seriously if you continue to spout about the 3000 Black Fighter Jets of Trump smiting the PLA.

Total ACTIVE fighter jet counts of US and allies:

United States​

• USAF: ~1,690 fighter aircraft (F‑15, F‑16, F‑22, F‑35)
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• USMC: ~297 fighter jets
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• USN: Includes ~450 carrier-based F/A‑18E/F Super Hornets plus early F-35Cs (not fully tallied; estimate ~400)

Estimated total: ~2,387 active fighter jets across Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy.

---

Japan​

• Total JASDF fighter aircraft: ~321 across all fighter types (F‑15J/DJ, F‑2, F‑35A)
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Estimated total: ~321 active fighters.

---

Australia​

• F‑35A: 72
• F/A‑18F Super Hornet: 24
• EA‑18G Growler (electronic‑attack version of the Hornet): 12
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Estimated total: 108 combat-capable jets (all active)

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---

Taiwan​

• F‑16A/B: ~150
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• Indigenous Defense Fighter (F‑CK‑1): 129
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• F‑5E/F: ~180
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• Mirage‑2000‑5: 60 (verified from 24/7 Wall St.)
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• Other types (like trainers, etc.) exclude non-fighters.

Estimated total: ~519 active fighter jets.

---

Summary Table​

Country	Active Fighter Jet Count (All Services)
United States	~2,387
Japan	~321
Australia	~108
Taiwan	~519

US numbers only show active count. If you start counting Air national guard and other reserves it will exceed 3000+. Yes, US will not be able to bring everything to a fight. They need to keep some for other regions. But China also has to keep some for other contingencies. So, overall count is in US+allies favour ina huge way.

 

[another505]

Total ACTIVE fighter jet counts of US and allies:

United States​

• USAF: ~1,690 fighter aircraft (F‑15, F‑16, F‑22, F‑35)
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
• USMC: ~297 fighter jets
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
• USN: Includes ~450 carrier-based F/A‑18E/F Super Hornets plus early F-35Cs (not fully tallied; estimate ~400)

Estimated total: ~2,387 active fighter jets across Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy.

---

Japan​

• Total JASDF fighter aircraft: ~321 across all fighter types (F‑15J/DJ, F‑2, F‑35A)
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Estimated total: ~321 active fighters.

---

Australia​

• F‑35A: 72
• F/A‑18F Super Hornet: 24
• EA‑18G Growler (electronic‑attack version of the Hornet): 12
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Estimated total: 108 combat-capable jets (all active)

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---

Taiwan​

• F‑16A/B: ~150
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• Indigenous Defense Fighter (F‑CK‑1): 129
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• F‑5E/F: ~180
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
• Mirage‑2000‑5: 60 (verified from 24/7 Wall St.)
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
• Other types (like trainers, etc.) exclude non-fighters.

Estimated total: ~519 active fighter jets.

---

Summary Table​

Country	Active Fighter Jet Count (All Services)
United States	~2,387
Japan	~321
Australia	~108
Taiwan	~519

US numbers only show active count. If you start counting Air national guard and other reserves it will exceed 3000+. Yes, US will not be able to bring everything to a fight. They need to keep some for other regions. But China also has to keep some for other contingencies. So, overall count is in US+allies favour ina huge way.

the problem isnt simply that USA cant divert the planes from other locations but there are no safe AB around 1ic that the planes can divert to. Diverting them to 2ic or behind and they are practically useless with insufficient combat radius and the need for air refuellers which are prime air targets to eat a PL-17.

This is recognized by Kendall that USA need to invest in base defence and hardened shelter but trump admin has decided they want their flying TACO instead

 

[tamsen_ikard]

the problem isnt simply that USA cant divert the planes from other locations but there are no safe AB around 1ic that the planes can divert to. Diverting them to 2ic or behind and they are practically useless with insufficient combat radius and the need for air refuellers which are prime air targets to eat a PL-17.

This is recognized by Kendall that USA need to invest in base defence and hardened shelter but trump admin has decided they want their flying TACO instead

Ukraine is completely exposed and flat land. And yet, they have been able to conceal their planes very well and are able to still fly them for sorties even after thousands of Russian missile strikes.

For US and allies, in a full scale war scenario, keeping the planes in known air bases will be the least likely scenario. They will be concealing them across the vast expanse of Japan's mountainous regions and urban landscapes. So, China's rocket force likely won't be able to destroy them in the initial stages. And I discussed before that it is easy to repair air fields or use highways to take off and land. So, those planes will be airborne soon after the Chinese missile strikes end.

Moreover, the start of the debate was about China achieving dominance in the first island chain, which means its China that has to come to Japan and do the strikes. US and allies can be on the defensive and focus on just shooting down as many Chinese strikes as they can.

US talks about base defence and hardening cause they are thinking about a Pearl Harbor like sudden Chinese attack. This is the worst case scenario for US so they need to think about that. But in the current geopolitical landscape and also China's own thinking, this kind of sneak attack is simply not happening. So, before the war starts, US and allies will have plenty of time to not only bring more planes to Japan but also conceal them.

 

[another505]

asfaik, while taiwan has their AF trained to fly on run ways and have bases inside the mountain. That isnt true of Japan and USA.

The other issue is a huge political one that I am not certain if japanese politicians are willign to risk it. By placing USA planes onto civilian streets means they are legal targets and getting the whole country in actual war instead of american AB. The japanese populace is still majority anti war.

The base hardening and base defence isnt about pearl harbor surprise. An attack on guam/iwo jima/okinawa is going to happen naturally when war breaks. I dont get where you get the preconception is only for surprise attack...

regarding ukraine, most people dont know they have an actual decent AD from USSR's legacy , and now with constant NATO intelligence, it isnt an exposed flat ground like you imagine

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

Sometimes, I kinda hoped that @Patchwork_Chimera and @MarKoz81 are still around to slam some senses and logic into those people who have neither sense nor logic.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Ukraine is completely exposed and flat land. And yet, they have been able to conceal their planes very well and are able to still fly them for sorties even after thousands of Russian missile strikes.

For US and allies, in a full scale war scenario, keeping the planes in known air bases will be the least likely scenario. They will be concealing them across the vast expanse of Japan's mountainous regions and urban landscapes. So, China's rocket force likely won't be able to destroy them in the initial stages. And I discussed before that it is easy to repair air fields or use highways to take off and land. So, those planes will be airborne soon after the Chinese missile strikes end.

Moreover, the start of the debate was about China achieving dominance in the first island chain, which means its China that has to come to Japan and do the strikes. US and allies can be on the defensive and focus on just shooting down as many Chinese strikes as they can.

US talks about base defence and hardening cause they are thinking about a Pearl Harbor like sudden Chinese attack. This is the worst case scenario for US so they need to think about that. But in the current geopolitical landscape and also China's own thinking, this kind of sneak attack is simply not happening. So, before the war starts, US and allies will have plenty of time to not only bring more planes to Japan but also conceal them.

Compare the total surface area of Ukraine to the total surface area of Pacific islands. Also note that Ukraine has concealment from forest and urban regions while sparse grass is no cover. See some pictures of Wake or Midway if you want to know what Pacific Islands look like.

 

[zyklon]

Sometimes, I kinda hoped that @Patchwork_Chimera and @MarKoz81 are still around to slam some senses and logic into those people who have neither sense nor logic.

Can't imagine @Patchwork_Chimera wanting to "put up" with @AndrewS at all, maybe "for a little bit" if the former was "invited" to testify before a Congressional committee and the latter was a sitting member of Congress.

The former isn't exactly known for his patient disposition and diplomatic verbiage . . .