I don't see any reason why china needs that many aircraft carrier in order to defeat Taiwan and even Japan and usa. Taiwan is obviously very close to china that even J 20 can strike that nation. And let's be real, once Taiwan is captured I don't see any reason for Japan to continue fight. Their morale is going to be heavily decreased. So again what's the need of 10 aircraft carriers? Are they fighting a nation that is very far away from them? Right now the advantage is on china side. Unlike america, china can fight 100%. Whereas america has to depend on their allies to strike china. They are not going to send all their fighter jet and aircraft carrier for war against china.
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
Iwo Jima is an interesting question.
Given how small and lightly defended it is, it is certainly possible to capture it.
But then what?
It's an isolated island which is 2000km from mainland China.
My guess is that it is just too small and too vulnerable to repeated strikes from opposing aircraft carriers, bombers and surface ships.
So you can't base aircraft there, as they will be destroyed on the ground.
But if there is sufficient air cover available from the J-36 and/or Chinese Aircraft carriers, then you could start to build an interlocking battle network which is survivable and can project more airpower than the opposition can. It would be somewhat similar to the South China Sea island bases.
Iwo Jima's Central Field has a 2650m runway
Which means any PLAAF aircraft can take off and land from there.
I'm sure they can have Y-20s fly over and unload HQ-16 unit as well as SHORAD + all the gears and construction materials and such. Bring in the material to set up a temporary pier. You can have Y-8/9 special missions aircraft land there and increase their reach. As well as UCAVs. You can have YY-20 fly out of there to refuel aircraft looking to attack Guam or even Wake Island.
You can bring in construction crew and material really fast to build up protective hangars. Expand fuel depot and setup communication center and radar stations. Anything can be done if PLA plans it out well and do things efficiently. Remember, there were over 20000 IJA stationed there during WWII and America sent in > 100k troops. It's not that small of an island. There will also be air defense offered by fleet nearby.
That may even be true, but I don't think that China would ever do that. It doesn't fit their style, it's not the way they want to present themselves to the rest of the world, and I don't think that it fits their idea of the ideal world order.
As for the possibility of China blockading Japan, it is a possible consequence of Japan losing a war. And Japan is fully aware of this possibility, and it's perhaps the primary reason why it will stay out of war.
Aside from what everyone else posted about the strength of the JMSDF, one of the weaknesses of Japan is that its aircraft tend to be very old and weak. Aside from a few dozen F-35s, the F-15Js and F-2s are less capable than J-10Cs so Japan will be highly vulnerable. The JMSDF still does have a fairly formidable force of submarines, but the most efficient modern blockades will be created using mines and submarines aren't going to help against that.
I think the PLAN needs to improve its defenses against drones. In the shallow waters of the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, or even the Bohai Sea you will see the US try to operate naval drones there. Much like Ukraine is doing in the Black Sea.
China also needs its own VTOL transport aircraft. The distances in the Pacific are too large to cover quickly with helicopters.
China also needs its own VTOL transport aircraft. The distances in the Pacific are too large to cover quickly with helicopters.
Even with all that, I just see Iwo Jima as just too vulnerable.
If Iwo Jima is a small isolated island base, and if it has to take the brunt of opposition attacks, there are just too many attack vectors and options to saturate the defences.
Then the base (and the aircraft) there get destroyed or can't operate.
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And that would only change if there are enough J-36 and/or carriers.
So they would operate in front of Iwo Jima.
Then Iwo Jima would end up as a safer, rear area base.
Can you explain what will be attacking this base?
it is 6000 km from Alaska and Hawaii. It is 4200 km from Darwin. What exactly is going to be busy attacking this place vs somewhere around 1IC or even NorthEast China.
Think:
Carrier strike groups
Bombers from Hawaii with a single in-flight refuelling
VLS cells from surface ships and submarines
The potential salvo sizes just look too large. Plus these can be sustained.
If US is fighting, then Japan is guaranteed also fighting or they are in the China camp. Neutrality is simply not an option.
Moreover, US and Japan and most likely also Australia, will disperse their force all over Japan in order to mitigate PLA rocket force strikes. Russia has fired thousands of missile and still they haven't been able to fully destroy Ukraine's air force, missile or any other significant military formation. This is due to dispersal and concealment.
China lacks the numbers to saturate Japan with rocket force. According to pentagon they have about 1000 launchers that can reach japan and about 2000 actual missiles. So, just 2 reloads per launcher. There is a reason for this, ballistic missiles are expensive.
China lacks the necessary numbers in air force or rocket force to strike a vast country as Japan. So, they will have to fight it out in the air against combined US+Japan+Australia+Taiwan air power. Its like 4000+ fighter planes.
I have discussed this before that US can also bring not just active service planes, but also its vast arsenal of retired 4th gen planes from the boneyard. China doesn't have that stock. So, they must have a bigger active service planes to overcome this gap.
Finally, when it comes to the navy we cannot assume all naval battle will happen close to Chinese shores, China might be forced to fight in the high seas. WW1 and WW2 naval battles have shown that the navy with the bigger fleet usually wins. US has big carriers with 100s of planes per carrier. Yes, they cannot bring all 10 due to maintenance issues, But China can also not operate all of its carriers at a time. So, if US brings 5, China needs to be able to bring atleast 7-8 carriers. So, their total fleet needs be bigger than 10..
Ukraine still has a fighting force because it borders several NATO countries. Supplies are not interrupted by Russian’s weak VKS.
All four Japanese main islands are within 1500km from China northeast. PLAAF can use H-6 and J-16 to continuously to drop glide bombs all day long
So? How many airbases on Japan islands can survived combined assaults from PLAAF and PLARF?
How useful are they? Maybe you should ask the Indian Air Force.
How many of American ships are mission capable? Where are the potential areas for fleet battles?