PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

tamsen_ikard said:

Japan alone has 30 destroyers while China has only 50. Let's not forget that A2/AD applies against China too.

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By "Japan alone has 30 destroyers" you mean 36 - And out of those 36x DDGs, only 8x of them are actual Arleigh Burke-counterparts (Kongo, Atago and Maya) as "fleet destroyers". The rest 28x are "escort destroyers" (Asagiri, Murusame, Takanami, Akizuki and Asahi), with only 16-32 VLS cells per ship. And out of those 28x DDGs, 8x of them (Asagiri) are old (they're built in the 1980s), to be retired soon and be replaced by Mogami FFGs.

In contrast, by "China has only 50 destroyers" you mean 52 - And out of those 52x DDGs, 8x of them are large DDGs (i.e. 055), 33x of them are general-purpose DDGs (052C and 052D/DG), and 11x of them being upgraded DDGs acting as "large FFGs/FFG-leaders" (052B, 051C, 051B, 052 and Sovremenny). And out of those 11x "large FFG/FFG-leaders", it is likely that 2 of them could be retired before the end of this decade.

Besides, need I mention that while the 28x "escort destroyers" are basically escorts for the main "fleet destroyers" and are specialized/focused in specific roles (Akizuki in AAW and Asahi in ASW, for instance) - The 052Cs and 052Ds/DGs are essentially general-purpose/multi-purpose, proper destroyers which can do pretty much every main role/task? Moreover, all of the 052Cs and 052D/DGs can conduct long-range/fleet-wide air-defense + long-range anti-ship strike roles - Can the JMSDF "escort destroyers" do the same?

And do I need to remind that the PLAN also operates 42x FFGs that are high-seas combat-capable (054A/AG and 054B) and specialized/focused in ASW? Now, how many FFGs do the JMSDF operate?

Moreover, all of these hasn't yet include all the other ships that are expected to enter PLAN service in the coming years (which @Tomboy has already explained above).

TL; DR - Numbers only tell a very small part of the whole story.

tamsen_ikard said:

So shore based anti- ship missiles on 1st island chain will likely sink any PLA ship trying to get out.

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And that's by assuming that, somehow, the rest of the PLA would just sit idly by and not send their special mission aircrafts, UAVs and satellites to scan, recon and scout along the entire length of the 1IC to pick out those AShM launchers.

Also, do you really believe that Beijing would just go "Today, let's go take Taiwan and/or the Ryukyus!" out of the blue, and all of the PLAN warships would just Rush-B from their home bases to try crossing the 1IC? Like, really?

tamsen_ikard said:

In terms of navy China needs atleast 150 destroyers along with 10 carriers to make a dent against US and allies.

China lacks numbers

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You're assuming that somehow, the PLAGF, PLAAF and PLARF would just sit idly by and do no jacksh1t - Which is wrong to begin with.

Also, the US Navy will never, ever, be able to send all 11 of their CVNs (and their respective CSGs) to the Pacific. So there's that.

tamsen_ikard said:

All this ambitious goals with just 1.5% GDP military spending? I doubt it's happening.

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I highly doubt Chinese military spending is at 1.5% of GDP anymore.

tamsen_ikard said:

Japan alone has 30 destroyers while China has only 50. Let's not forget that A2/AD applies against China too. So shore based anti- ship missiles on 1st island chain will likely sink any PLA ship trying to get out.

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Only 8 of those Japanese destroyers are capable of long-range air defence like in the Chinese Navy or US Navy.
The rest of those Japanese destroyers are roughly equivalent to frigates.

And it does look like every 5 years, the Chinese Navy is adding 20 destroyers and 20 frigates.

tamsen_ikard said:

In order to break this chokehold China needs a massive expansion of its air and missile force. Completely saturate 1st island chain. Current fighter fleet of 2200 fighters is not enough to attain dominance even if all of the fleet is converted to 4th Gen+.

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My guess is that by 2030, the Chinese Air Force would be able to obtain air superiority over the First Island Chain.
That is based on 1000+ 5th gen fighters plus the rest of the Air Force, Navy and Rocket Force.

tamsen_ikard said:

In terms of navy China needs atleast 150 destroyers along with 10 carriers to make a dent against US and allies.

China lacks numbers

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If the First Island Chain is secured, then 13 aircraft carriers with 100+ [destroyers and frigates] is enough to make that dent.
The issue is the time to build new carriers.

bebops said:

Massive expansion on 6th gen planes are a must. U.S beat China in number of 5th planes produced because U.S has an early production start.

If China can produce 1.5-2x more 6th gen planes than U.S, 1st island chain is in the bag for China. 6th gen warship will beat 4th and 5th gen planes.

I am always a fan of warplanes over warship.

A warship requires hundreds of crewmember to operate while a plane required 1 or 2 crews.. The survivability of plane is greater than warship.

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That's a very simplistic and naive way of looking at things.

Also, what in the world is a "6th-gen warship"??

vincent said:

PLA doesn’t have to occupy Guam, just need to smash it to pieces so it can’t be used to support US military operations during the war.

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okay, that might be possible. keep in mind that US military personnel can just disperse inside Guam. The best you can do is just take out the ports, command & control centers, runway and probably grid, so they can't use it as a military operating base for aircraft and naval vessels.

Houthis shown that you can be really resilient facing munitions as long as no landing happens.

tamsen_ikard said:

All this ambitious goals with just 1.5% GDP military spending? I doubt it's happening.

Japan alone has 30 destroyers while China has only 50. Let's not forget that A2/AD applies against China too. So shore based anti- ship missiles on 1st island chain will likely sink any PLA ship trying to get out.

In order to break this chokehold China needs a massive expansion of its air and missile force. Completely saturate 1st island chain. Current fighter fleet of 2200 fighters is not enough to attain dominance even if all of the fleet is converted to 4th Gen+.


In terms of navy China needs atleast 150 destroyers along with 10 carriers to make a dent against US and allies.

China lacks numbers

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not really, they have more capital ship tonnage in Westpac right now than all of JMSDF.
They have 2 carriers, 1 Type 075, 1 Type 071, 10 055 + 052Ds and 9 054As.

JMSDF capital ships is 4 Helo carriers/amphibious ships, 8 modern destroyers (Kongo, Otago and Maya class) and around 11 modern-ish frigate/destroyers (2 Asahi, 4 Akizuki and 5 Takanami class)

You can read back on this thread and the talking of first strike with large barrage of PLARF missiles can do to JSDF and 7th fleet assets in the region.

I don't think we can really understate just the level of force projection that PLAN has put around Westpac this week. Japan rightly should be very concerned.

bebops said:

Massive expansion on 6th gen planes are a must. U.S beat China in number of 5th planes produced because U.S has an early production start.

If China can produce 1.5-2x more 6th gen planes than U.S, 1st island chain is in the bag for China. 6th gen warship will beat 4th and 5th gen planes.

I am always a fan of warplanes over warship.

A warship requires hundreds of crewmember to operate while a plane required 1 or 2 crews.. The survivability of plane is greater than warship.

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For 5th generation, I personally think China still has a good chance of catching up and even exceeding the US. J-20 production is at ~120 aircraft a year, with J-35 in LRIP this year and assuming Shenyang could ramp up to similar production rate as Chengdu(Which is likely since SAC recently comissioned a massive production hall), PLAAF at peak could be inducting over 200 5th generation per year compared to ~120 or so F-35 the US is inducting. By 2030 PLA could operate as much 5th gen as the US if not more.

tphuang said:

okay, that might be possible. keep in mind that US military personnel can just disperse inside Guam. The best you can do is just take out the ports, command & control centers, runway and probably grid, so they can't use it as a military operating base for aircraft and naval vessels.

Houthis shown that you can be really resilient facing munitions as long as no landing happens.

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Take out the fuel depots, power generation stations, transformer stations, water filtration plants, food storages, etc. Just need to make the island inhabitable.

vincent said:

Take out the fuel depots, power generation stations, transformer stations, water filtration plants, food storages, etc. Just need to make the island inhabitable.

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I don't think you want to do the last two, since that would be war crime. There are plenty of civilians on the island.

Tomboy said:

For 5th generation, I personally think China still has a good chance of catching up and even exceeding the US. J-20 production is at ~120 aircraft a year, with J-35 in LRIP this year and assuming Shenyang could ramp up to similar production rate as Chengdu(Which is likely since SAC recently comissioned a massive production hall), PLAAF at peak could be inducting over 200 5th generation per year compared to ~120 or so F-35 the US is inducting. By 2030 PLA could operate as much 5th gen as the US if not more.

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this is probably not on topic

Tomboy said:

For 5th generation, I personally think China still has a good chance of catching up and even exceeding the US. J-20 production is at ~120 aircraft a year, with J-35 in LRIP this year and assuming Shenyang could ramp up to similar production rate as Chengdu(Which is likely since SAC recently comissioned a massive production hall), PLAAF at peak could be inducting over 200 5th generation per year compared to ~120 or so F-35 the US is inducting. By 2030 PLA could operate as much 5th gen as the US if not more.

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The US is not inducting 120 F-35 a year.


A top billpayer appeared to be the F-35. The service is essentially halving the planned F-35 buy from the previous year, requesting $3.6 billion to acquire 24 F-35As, down from 44 that were ultimately enacted in FY25.
...
The budget request does include 12 carrier variant F-35Cs and 11 short-take-off-and-vertical-landing-capable F-35Bs.

tphuang said:

I don't think you want to do the last two, since that would be war crime. There are plenty of civilians on the island.

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Ok, no need to hit water filtration plants. However, they will not function without power and taking out the power grid is a must.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

That's a very simplistic and naive way of looking at things.

Also, what in the world is a "6th-gen warship"??

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my bad. 6th gen warplane. j36/j50