The War in the Ukraine

[Atomicfrog]

I am not talking about crossing the line to use nuclear weapons, I am deliberately writing about Russia's way of conducting this war. Since 2022, they have been dragging their feet in this war, suffering setbacks that are completely alienating their respective military advantages over NATO. In reality, Ukraine is being used by NATO precisely to compromise Russian military capabilities, this attack today is yet another proof of this Western military policy.

The Russians still think that they can contain Ukraine militarily without compromising their own military capabilities in a limited open war, when in reality, Ukraine is so motivated enough to lead to Russia's defeat in the war that they will do everything to make this possible, NATO is more than motivated to make this a reality too.

Dude, Ukraine has already attacked Murmansk. It has attacked Russian early warning radars. It has previously attacked the strategic bomber base in Engels. Now this attack again. All of this should have been a warning to the Russians that they can no longer contain this war, either they must completely finish off Ukraine soon, or they will end up compromising their most critical military capabilities vis-à-vis NATO.

See, this is not the use of nuclear weapons. It is Russian military strategy in Ukraine. Unless the Russians change their approach, we will see this happen again and again, and the next time it could be an even more devastating attack considering Ukraine's growing drone strike capabilities against Russia.

Even if they settle down the conflict, hardcore corpuscles can do hit again and again like you say. I think bold assaults with more losses could be seen if they speed up the operation on the ground.

In any case the end game with these actions is no more Ukraine and more loss of men on both sides. It's very sad actually that outsider pulling of strings can do.

 

[Wangxi]

So, if I understood correctly, the drones were launched from Russia rather than from Ukraine?

 

[Soldier30]

Ukrainian media published footage of Ukrainian FPV drone strikes on the Belaya airbase in the Irkutsk region of Russia. Russian Tu-95 bombers were stationed at the Belaya airbase. According to eyewitnesses, a truck pulled up to a gas station, FPV drones started taking off from it, the driver of one of the trucks was found dead. It is worth noting that such an FPV attack cannot be repelled. Due to the fact that no air defense can shoot down FPV drones now. Also, such an attack was not expected in the rear, a well-trained sabotage group was working. It is possible that the group includes Russian residents, it is also possible that the truck contains equipment for remote launch and control of FPV drones. Judging by the video, as a result of the attack, 4 Tu-95 bombers were damaged, most likely destroyed. The Russian Olenya airbase in the Murmansk region was also attacked. The base reportedly had air defense, including the Pantsir air defense missile system, but it cannot hit FPV drones. Eyewitnesses counted 11 FPV drones.

 

[Stealthflanker]

See, this is not the use of nuclear weapons. This is Russian military strategy in Ukraine. Unless the Russians change their approach, we will see this happen again and again, and the next time it could be an even more devastating attack considering Ukraine's growing drone strike capabilities against Russia.

Problem with this is that.. you only destroy your enemy nuclear weapons and EW capability IF you intend to Attack them with nuclear weapons too. Conventional warfare to say, invade Russia from NATO country gonna take very long time given how vast Russia is.

Also you cannot ensure destruction of all Russian nuclear weapons as you can expect SSBN on patrol.. Super hardened C2 ensure even you killed putin by poking his skull with FPV.. there will still be retaliation.

But yeah.. maybe NATO wants to do Barbarossa 2.0 by first weakening Russia through Ukraine. Attacking their nukes without destroying them all tho.. might not be a good idea.

So, if I understood correctly, the drones were launched from Russia rather than from Ukraine?

Yes. trucked in.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The question is will Putin escalate

There is no way putin is escalating to nuclear levels. Cause that will not cause Ukraine's dispersed defenses to falter. People don't realize how useless Nukes are in an actual war. Tactical Nukes are like big bombs, they will go boom in a big way but won't damage widely dispersed troops hiding under heavy bunkers or trenches.

Sure, if you get truly brutal and start attacking cities like US did to Hiroshima, you might force Ukraine to surrender. But it can also inflame anger in EU to such a level that they attack Russia with full force.

What Russia can do to truly escalate is to hit Ukraine where it hurts them the most right now, which is depletion of manpower in slow grinding assaults. So, Russia needs to double down on this strategy by doing a big mobilization of forces this time. If Russia mobilizes another million men, mobilizes its industry to equip them. That will put huge pressure on Ukraine's defenses and force them to collapse.

This has become a war of attrition so, attrite Ukraine a lot more.

 

[AndrewJ]

One drone laden truck failed to make it. Caught fire and exploded.

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No. According to Clash Report, it's programmed to self-destruct after launching all drones.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

Even if they settle down the conflict, hardcore corpuscles can do hit again and again like you say. I think bold assaults with more losses could be seen if they speed up the operation on the ground.

In any case the end game with these actions is no more Ukraine and more loss of men on both sides. It's very sad actually that outsider pulling of strings can do.

Yes. It is the end of Ukraine. A war of annihilation in order to completely eliminate Ukraine so that it no longer poses any threat to the Russian state.

The question is: what will be the cost of this?

Could the cost be having 1/3 of its strategic bomber fleet compromised?

Could the cost be partially compromising its ground-based early warning capability?

Could the cost be the elimination of all its artillery, armored and tank reserves?

Could the cost be its Black Sea Fleet being compromised and no longer being the dominant naval force in the Black Sea?

 

[Tam]

This happened a week ago when Gerans struck Odessa and a ship exploded. Didn't get better footage of it until now, which was recorded from the Romanian side. Turns out it was a Turkish ship delivering military supplies to Ukraine and Russian intelligence got a hold of it.

 

[gelgoog]

All those Western weapon deliveries to Ukraine have done is help the Russians figure out what works and what does not. This has already led them to use air launched glide bombs, trucks now have armored cabins, and BMPs are getting uparmored and with modern turrets. The Geran drones started being produced, now with better stealth and cheap jet engines, an order of magnitude cheaper than cruise missiles. The next things will probably be APS for tanks, targetting pods for aircraft, and air launched drones.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is the crucible where the next generation Russian army is being forged.

 

[anamensis25]

Something that amazed me is how after this, and the way had been three + years of SMO, Gerasimov can still in General Staff. He had been sacked long time ago.

And to think to all this was named "SMO" because arrogance and hubris from Russian leadership and could be a walk - park. Well now they have to face a war in proper name.