Trade War with China

Discussion in 'Strategic Defense' started by Ultra, Jan 27, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. manqiangrexue
    Offline

    manqiangrexue Captain

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2014
    Messages:
    2,481
    Likes Received:
    8,214
    Says the person who's talked about everything from culture to famine on this forum LOL. I just gave a brief interpretation of your charts, nothing else. Maybe you were so confused about what they mean that you couldn't even recognize their interpretation?
    You mean increasing consumption. Increasing not as quickly as GDP growth is all.
    Excellent move by the Chinese government! Export capacity and infrastructure are both great investments into the future. Spending your money to invest in these pillars of success is a very far-sighted and wise move.
    Not if they were invested, as you just claimed. There's not only consumption and savings.
    Without wasting time, hell no.
    I think you didn't look at the actual numbers on your graph; you just looked at the line shape, hoping they make you happy. Your chart says that US households have almost 80% debt to GDP while Chinese have less than 50%. And your first 2 charts show that Americans spend 69% of their earnings while the Chinese spend less than 40%. And then, you said that extra Chinese financial power is being put towards infrastructure and business investments. Sounds exactly like a great model for growth and development. I can see more clear issue with your logic that this is a problem for Chinese people and not Americans.
     
    Tam, DigoSSA, Equation and 3 others like this.
  2. Hendrik_2000
    Offline

    Hendrik_2000 Brigadier

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2006
    Messages:
    7,698
    Likes Received:
    26,763
    Guys forget about him This guy can't even read his own chart America personal indebtedness is 80+% vs Chinese one which is 50% Now who is more in the hock ?

    Trade war what trade war Alibaba just recorded sales jump by 61%. this article confirm Mangxiangrexu assertion
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/alibaba-earnings-slump-on-one-time-charge-1535025231
    E-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. BABA +0.33% reported a 61% increase in sales, as Chinese consumers continued to spend on the internet despite slowing economic growth.

    Alibaba, the operator of China’s two largest e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, said in a statement on Thursday its core e-commerce business kept charging ahead in the most recent quarter, driving overall revenue up 61% from the year-earlier period to 80.9 billion yuan ($11.83 billion).

    NYSE-listed Alibaba said it collected higher commissions and sold more ads to merchants in its fiscal first quarter, which ended June 30, as consumers kept up their purchases on its websites. The growth comes even as China’s economy posted slower growth in the same period, weighed down by a top-priority government debt cleanup and fears of prolonged trade friction with the U.S.

    “Domestic consumption is supported by three important trends we have seen in the past several years, and which we believe will continue to be the case,” said Joe Tsai, Alibaba’s vice chairman in a call with investors. “Real wage growth with more people joining the middle class, healthy household balance sheets based on high savings rates, and easier access to consumer credit.”


    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...tm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral&r=US&IR=T

    One quote from Chinese giant Alibaba shows how Trump's trade war could backfire

    The Chinese retail giant Alibaba says it isn’t worried about President Donald Trump’s trade war, and the company’s comments highlight how China could gain the upper hand in the conflict.

    Joseph Tsai, Alibaba’s vice chairman, told analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the recent tariffs imposed by the US and China should not be a major detriment to the e-commerce giant’s business – or the Chinese economy at large.

    Part of the concern with a trade war is that imposing tariffs on goods coming from the US drives up costs for those goods – leading to Chinese companies and consumers paying more.

    For instance, Chinese farmers who rely on imports of US soybeans to feed their livestock could see a dramatic price increase after the imposing of tariffs. The same could apply for other goods, like US gas or food items.

    But Tsai said the hit to Chinese consumers was likely to be softened by a switch to non-US goods – whether from China or another country – facilitated by the government.

    “This coming November, China will hold the world’s largest import exhibition in Shanghai that will showcase products from all over the world,” Tsai said. “If US goods become too expensive due to tariffs, Chinese consumers can shift to domestic producers or imports from other parts of the world.”

    Tsai said the Chinese government could ease the transition by providing support to offset increased costs.


    “We believe that Chinese government policy will continue to support imports into China to satisfy the rising demand of Chinese consumers,” he said.

    Tsai’s comments underscore a growing advantage for China as it tries to hold out in its trade war with Trump.


    Xiaojia Zhi and Helen Qiao, China economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the shift was already beginning.

    “We believe the Chinese government has more influence on how much and where to buy its imports than the US government’s influence on its own importers,” the economists wrote in a note to clients. “In other words, China could shift its imports from the US to purchases from other markets relatively more easily than the US administration pushing businesses to other alternative countries for outsourcing or imports.”

    [​IMG]Bank of America Merrill Lynch
    Shifting Chinese consumption is easier since the country’s economy gives the government more power to influence companies’ behaviours and subsidise the shift, an option the US does not have.

    At the same time, the US is doing little to wean itself off Chinese goods:

    • China accounted for 19.9% of all imports to the US in the first six months of the year, compared with an even 20% in 2017.
    • Additionally, import growth from China actually accelerated in 2018.
    • Chinese imports grew by 8.6% in the first six months of the year compared with 2017.
    • Last year, Chinese imports grew by 8.4% in the first six months compared with 2016.
    The Chinese data shows similar stats, with export growth to the US staying steady.

    “China’s export growth to the US seemed to be pretty resilient, and held up in line with the overall trend,” Zhi and Qiao wrote. “In July, China’s export growth to the US was 11.2% yoy, slightly below its total export growth of 12.2%.”

    The changes come amid the ever-escalating trade war between the US and China. After including China in a broader wave of steel and aluminium tariffs, the US first targeted Chinese goods specifically on July 6, when it hit $US34 billion worth of imports with 25% duties. China immediately responded in kind.

    The US and China have since hit each other with another round of tariffs – this time on $US16 billion worth of goods each. Trump also threatened to slap tariffs on another $US200 billion worth of Chinese goods as soon as September.

    Chinese consumers are less likely to see disruption.

    China accounts for 21% of the US’s imports, making it the largest source of international goods sent to the US. China, on the other hand, sources just 9.9% of its imports from the US, an amount nearly equal to the percentages China gets from Japan and South Korea.

    Still, many other considerations could work against China, including political stomach for a prolonged trade fight, internal consumption, and credit woes. But looking solely at the trade figures, China appears to be holding a strong position.

    Many Chinese officials do not expect the country to shift back to US supply even if the two countries resolve their battle.

    “Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the US is enjoying in China,” an official told the Chinese outlet Xinhua. “If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the US to regain the market.”
     
  3. Red Moon
    Offline

    Red Moon Junior Member

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2009
    Messages:
    455
    Likes Received:
    131
    In the case of Italy, Spain and India, they're talking about lentils and peas, not soybeans. The interesting thing about the article to me is that it seems to imply Spaniards and Italians see Merkel as selling out to Trump!
     
    N00813 and bluewater2012 like this.
  4. Jura
    Offline

    Jura General

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    23,361
    Likes Received:
    27,569
    Aug 16, 2018
    now
    China, U.S. hold "constructive, candid" talks on trade issues
    Xinhua| 2018-08-24 10:34:20 http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-08/24/c_137415054.htm

     
    N00813 and Equation like this.
  5. Anlsvrthng
    Offline

    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2017
    Messages:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    285
    Interesting.

    Is there anything done by the Chinese government that is not approved by you or by the typical Chinese?

    I mean, is there any policy change, economical data, trend, or action that is not extremely clever and very good for the average Chinese people in your eyes?

    I remember when we talked between 2005-2009 the developing USA crisis (on other forums : P ), there was a group of people who denied it, but way less than on theese forums.
    ( I have to mention that I feel similarity with the cult that surrounded Alan Greenspan between 2001-2008 )
     
  6. manqiangrexue
    Offline

    manqiangrexue Captain

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2014
    Messages:
    2,481
    Likes Received:
    8,214
    What? We left economics again and now we are talking about my approval of Chinese politics and Alan Greenspan? Look at that "irrelevant salad bowl!" LOLOL

    Well, judging from China's growth, I honestly believe that it is the most competent government in the world; reality is not black and white like whether the CCP made a right choice or a mistaken choice, but what or how much it could have done better. As someone who is not in the loop, it would be very hard for me to pick issues with their decisions and to say that I know better on any issue. Think of it this way: can a couch potato pick faults with Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali's fighting style? Not likely. But are they perfect? No, everyone can improve. That is my view of the Chinese government.

    Second point, when Westerners talk to Chinese people, they typically hone in like a sleuth dog to anything that the Chinese person says that can be mildly interpreted as criticism towards the Chinese government ("traffic is so heavy that driving is regulated by license plate" or "Technically, I can't watch porn legally") and will exaggerate that to look like this Chinese person hates the CCP but cannot do anything about it and is too scared to say more. So even if I have some small criticism, I wouldn't share them with you, in order to help you maintain a clear view of what's going on. Rest assured, whatever micro-disagreements I have, they are not even 10% of what most Americans complain about towards the US government.
     
    #1716 manqiangrexue, Aug 24, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2018
    Red Moon, N00813, Equation and 6 others like this.
  7. Jura
    Offline

    Jura General

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    23,361
    Likes Received:
    27,569
    now I read
    Trade war raises concerns about the US economy
    2018-08-25 17:53 GMT+8 https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d414d78517a4e79457a6333566d54/share_p.html

     
    Equation likes this.
  8. Equation
    Offline

    Equation Lieutenant General

    Joined:
    May 11, 2011
    Messages:
    11,070
    Likes Received:
    13,737
    I approved of the Chinese government for uplifting 800 million people out of poverty and another hundreds of millions more into middle class status. Like I said many times...that feat is far better than any government or god out there in the human kind history. So what's your weak western government excuse for not even doing at least this similar feat in your own country in conjunction to the population? Did Russia interfered with your election?:rolleyes::p
     
    Red Moon, manqiangrexue and KIENCHIN like this.
  9. Anlsvrthng
    Offline

    Anlsvrthng Senior Member
    Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2017
    Messages:
    1,223
    Likes Received:
    285
    Question was simple, is there any information, data, event that can be considered as negative, or even neutral from the PRC government?

    I It can be expanded to different dimensions as well.

    Is there any information ,evidence that can supports that the trade war is good for US, and bad for China ?

    IF there is no possible acceptable evidence for it ,then the whole forum is nothing else just an echo chamber.
     
  10. Bltizo
    Offline

    Bltizo Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2008
    Messages:
    12,543
    Likes Received:
    16,407
    Of course there are many things within China that could be better, where results have been poor, or where advancement could be faster. From developing a more robust public health system to improving education penetrance, to tackling continuing food quality issues and developing more robust strategic industries necessary to China's continued technological advancement.


    But if you're trying to ask leading questions to get an answer that many Chinese either here or in China disapprove of the overall national trajectory and strategic direction that China has taken over the last few decades, then you're probably going to be disappointed.
     
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page