Trade War with China


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You made a quite nice salad bowl piling up unrelated things.
Says the person who's talked about everything from culture to famine on this forum LOL. I just gave a brief interpretation of your charts, nothing else. Maybe you were so confused about what they mean that you couldn't even recognize their interpretation?
Check the correlation between the negative interest rate on savings, and the decreasing consumption.
You mean increasing consumption. Increasing not as quickly as GDP growth is all.
Considering that prior of 201X the Chinese household hasn't got significant debt but they had savings the negative interest rate was a transfer mechanism from the households to the banks/SOEs to recapitalise them.
They used this money first to make export capacity, second to create a huge infrastructure driven economy.
Excellent move by the Chinese government! Export capacity and infrastructure are both great investments into the future. Spending your money to invest in these pillars of success is a very far-sighted and wise move.
So, you saying that the reason why the Chinese doesn't spend money because they salary growing faster than they consumption?
I think if it is the case then you can expect to see the savings of the households going up.

But if I check the above graph it showing the opposite.
The Chinese household needs loans to reach the expected level of living.
Not if they were invested, as you just claimed. There's not only consumption and savings.
Without wasting too much time , don't you think that the three graph ( real interest rate, household share of GDP , household debt) showing a different, and very sorry story about the current state of the Chinese consumers?
Without wasting time, hell no.
So, check the second part of your reasoning, the US consumer who has to go deeper and deeper into the debt.


Whops.
So, the Chinese consumer keeping his minuscule share from the GDP by taking loans like madman, and the US consumer keeping his share by saving.

I know that on the internet forums the logical thinking is not so popular, but please, can you see the issue with your chain of logic?
I think you didn't look at the actual numbers on your graph; you just looked at the line shape, hoping they make you happy. Your chart says that US households have almost 80% debt to GDP while Chinese have less than 50%. And your first 2 charts show that Americans spend 69% of their earnings while the Chinese spend less than 40%. And then, you said that extra Chinese financial power is being put towards infrastructure and business investments. Sounds exactly like a great model for growth and development. I can see more clear issue with your logic that this is a problem for Chinese people and not Americans.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Guys forget about him This guy can't even read his own chart America personal indebtedness is 80+% vs Chinese one which is 50% Now who is more in the hock ?

Trade war what trade war Alibaba just recorded sales jump by 61%. this article confirm Mangxiangrexu assertion
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E-commerce giant
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Ltd.
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reported a 61% increase in sales, as Chinese consumers continued to spend on the internet despite slowing economic growth.

Alibaba, the operator of China’s two largest e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, said in a statement on Thursday its core e-commerce business kept charging ahead in the most recent quarter, driving overall revenue up 61% from the year-earlier period to 80.9 billion yuan ($11.83 billion).

NYSE-listed Alibaba said it collected higher commissions and sold more ads to merchants in its fiscal first quarter, which ended June 30, as consumers kept up their purchases on its websites. The growth comes even as China’s economy
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in the same period, weighed down by a top-priority government debt cleanup and fears of prolonged trade friction with the U.S.

“Domestic consumption is supported by three important trends we have seen in the past several years, and which we believe will continue to be the case,” said Joe Tsai, Alibaba’s vice chairman in a call with investors. “Real wage growth with more people joining the middle class, healthy household balance sheets based on high savings rates, and easier access to consumer credit.”


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One quote from Chinese giant Alibaba shows how Trump's trade war could backfire

The Chinese retail giant Alibaba says it isn’t worried about
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and the company’s comments highlight how China could gain the upper hand in the conflict.

Joseph Tsai, Alibaba’s vice chairman, told analysts during the company’s quarterly earnings call that the recent tariffs imposed by the US and China should not be a major detriment to the e-commerce giant’s business – or the Chinese economy at large.

Part of the concern with a trade war is that imposing tariffs on goods coming from the US drives up costs for those goods – leading to Chinese companies and consumers paying more.

For instance,
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of US soybeans to feed their livestock could see a dramatic price increase after the imposing of tariffs. The same could apply for other goods, like US gas or food items.

But Tsai said the hit to Chinese consumers was likely to be softened by a switch to non-US goods – whether from China or another country – facilitated by the government.

“This coming November, China will hold the world’s largest import exhibition in Shanghai that will showcase products from all over the world,” Tsai said. “If US goods become too expensive due to tariffs, Chinese consumers can shift to domestic producers or imports from other parts of the world.”

Tsai said the Chinese government could ease the transition by providing support to offset increased costs.


“We believe that Chinese government policy will continue to support imports into China to satisfy the rising demand of Chinese consumers,” he said.

Tsai’s comments underscore a growing advantage for China as it tries to hold out in its trade war with Trump.


Xiaojia Zhi and Helen Qiao, China economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said the shift was already beginning.

“We believe the Chinese government has more influence on how much and where to buy its imports than the US government’s influence on its own importers,” the economists wrote in a note to clients. “In other words, China could shift its imports from the US to purchases from other markets relatively more easily than the US administration pushing businesses to other alternative countries for outsourcing or imports.”

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Shifting Chinese consumption is easier since the country’s economy gives the government more power to influence companies’ behaviours and subsidise the shift, an option the US does not have.

At the same time, the US is doing little to wean itself off Chinese goods:

  • China accounted for 19.9% of all imports to the US in the first six months of the year, compared with an even 20% in 2017.
  • Additionally, import growth from China actually accelerated in 2018.
  • Chinese imports grew by 8.6% in the first six months of the year compared with 2017.
  • Last year, Chinese imports grew by 8.4% in the first six months compared with 2016.
The Chinese data shows similar stats, with export growth to the US staying steady.

“China’s export growth to the US seemed to be pretty resilient, and held up in line with the overall trend,” Zhi and Qiao wrote. “In July, China’s export growth to the US was 11.2% yoy, slightly below its total export growth of 12.2%.”

The changes come amid the ever-escalating trade war between the US and China. After including China in a broader wave of steel and aluminium tariffs, the US first targeted Chinese goods specifically on July 6, when it hit $US34 billion worth of imports with 25% duties. China immediately responded in kind.

The US and China have since hit each other with another round of tariffs – this time on $US16 billion worth of goods each. Trump also threatened to slap tariffs on another $US200 billion worth of Chinese goods as soon as September.

Chinese consumers are less likely to see disruption.

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of the US’s imports, making it the largest source of international goods sent to the US. China, on the other hand,
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from the US, an amount nearly equal to the percentages China gets from Japan and South Korea.

Still, many other considerations could work against China, including political stomach for a prolonged trade fight, internal consumption, and credit woes. But looking solely at the trade figures, China appears to be holding a strong position.

Many Chinese officials do not expect the country to shift back to US supply even if the two countries resolve their battle.

“Many countries have the willingness and they totally have the capacity to take over the market share the US is enjoying in China,” an official
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. “If other countries become reliable suppliers for China, it will be very difficult for the US to regain the market.”
 

Red Moon

Junior Member
The article only refers to the EU delegats from minows Italy and Spain
Germany is still purchasing,however the extra amount the EU promised to purchase is only going to make a small reduction of the loss as a result of China purchasing elsewhere.
In the case of Italy, Spain and India, they're talking about lentils and peas, not soybeans. The interesting thing about the article to me is that it seems to imply Spaniards and Italians see Merkel as selling out to Trump!
 
Aug 16, 2018
now I read
China's vice commerce minister to visit U.S. on trade issues
2018-08-16 11:57:46
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now
China, U.S. hold "constructive, candid" talks on trade issues
Xinhua| 2018-08-24 10:34:20
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At the invitation of the U.S. side, a Chinese delegation has held "constructive and candid" exchanges on economic and trade issues of mutual concern with the U.S. counterparts in Washington from Aug. 22 to 23, an official statement said Friday.

"Both sides will keep in contact about the future arrangement," China's Ministry of Commerce said in a statement on its website.

The Chinese delegation was led by Vice Minister of Commerce and Deputy China International Trade Representative Wang Shouwen, while the U.S. delegation was led by David Malpass, Under Secretary for International Affairs of the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
Excellent move by the Chinese government!
Interesting.

Is there anything done by the Chinese government that is not approved by you or by the typical Chinese?

I mean, is there any policy change, economical data, trend, or action that is not extremely clever and very good for the average Chinese people in your eyes?

I remember when we talked between 2005-2009 the developing USA crisis (on other forums : P ), there was a group of people who denied it, but way less than on theese forums.
( I have to mention that I feel similarity with the cult that surrounded Alan Greenspan between 2001-2008 )
 
Interesting.

Is there anything done by the Chinese government that is not approved by you or by the typical Chinese?

I mean, is there any policy change, economical data, trend, or action that is not extremely clever and very good for the average Chinese people in your eyes?

I remember when we talked between 2005-2009 the developing USA crisis (on other forums : P ), there was a group of people who denied it, but way less than on theese forums.
( I have to mention that I feel similarity with the cult that surrounded Alan Greenspan between 2001-2008 )
What? We left economics again and now we are talking about my approval of Chinese politics and Alan Greenspan? Look at that "irrelevant salad bowl!" LOLOL

Well, judging from China's growth, I honestly believe that it is the most competent government in the world; reality is not black and white like whether the CCP made a right choice or a mistaken choice, but what or how much it could have done better. As someone who is not in the loop, it would be very hard for me to pick issues with their decisions and to say that I know better on any issue. Think of it this way: can a couch potato pick faults with Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali's fighting style? Not likely. But are they perfect? No, everyone can improve. That is my view of the Chinese government.

Second point, when Westerners talk to Chinese people, they typically hone in like a sleuth dog to anything that the Chinese person says that can be mildly interpreted as criticism towards the Chinese government ("traffic is so heavy that driving is regulated by license plate" or "Technically, I can't watch porn legally") and will exaggerate that to look like this Chinese person hates the CCP but cannot do anything about it and is too scared to say more. So even if I have some small criticism, I wouldn't share them with you, in order to help you maintain a clear view of what's going on. Rest assured, whatever micro-disagreements I have, they are not even 10% of what most Americans complain about towards the US government.
 
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now I read
Trade war raises concerns about the US economy
2018-08-25 17:53 GMT+8
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While the US was holding a public hearing this week on proposed tariffs on more Chinese products, experts and enterprises voiced more concerns over the consequent damages on US economy.

The previous tariffs imposed on 34 billion US dollars worth of Chinese goods since July has already put pressure on US companies.

Due to the tariffs, US importers placed additional orders to be shipped and delivered before their implementation, leading to higher ocean and air freight costs, as well as increasing warehousing costs in the US, said Henry Ko, managing director for Asia at Flexport, a US-based freight forwarding company, noting the entire supply chain has to bear additional costs, CNBC reported on Wednesday.

Besides for raising the costs in the supply chain, tariffs also elevate the cost of purchasing materials and the additional tariffs will further reduce US companies’ profit margins, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, quoting Jake Colvin, vice president of US National Foreign Trade Council.

Ironically, nearly all of the Chinese products targeted by US tariffs are goods and equipment needed by US industries, said economists with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, AFP reported on Thursday.

These rising concerns about the business environment have turned into worries about the growth of the US economy.

Economists believed that the US economy will slowly, but steadily, grow in the coming quarters after a four-year high seen in April-June because of damage inflicted by the trade war, according to a Reuters poll released on Thursday.

Although the US economy had its strongest performance in nearly four years with a growth rate of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, which was partly boosted by 1.5 trillion US dollars in tax cuts passed late last year, this latest poll of more than 100 economists showed they predicted the economic growth would lose momentum and would grow only at less than half the current rate next year.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Interesting.

Is there anything done by the Chinese government that is not approved by you or by the typical Chinese?

I mean, is there any policy change, economical data, trend, or action that is not extremely clever and very good for the average Chinese people in your eyes?

I remember when we talked between 2005-2009 the developing USA crisis (on other forums : P ), there was a group of people who denied it, but way less than on theese forums.
( I have to mention that I feel similarity with the cult that surrounded Alan Greenspan between 2001-2008 )
I approved of the Chinese government for uplifting 800 million people out of poverty and another hundreds of millions more into middle class status. Like I said many times...that feat is far better than any government or god out there in the human kind history. So what's your weak western government excuse for not even doing at least this similar feat in your own country in conjunction to the population? Did Russia interfered with your election?:rolleyes::p
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
I approved of the Chinese government for uplifting 800 million people out of poverty and another hundreds of millions more into middle class status. Like I said many times...that feat is far better than any government or god out there in the human kind history. So what's your weak western government excuse for not even doing at least this similar feat in your own country in conjunction to the population? Did Russia interfered with your election?:rolleyes::p
Question was simple, is there any information, data, event that can be considered as negative, or even neutral from the PRC government?

I It can be expanded to different dimensions as well.

Is there any information ,evidence that can supports that the trade war is good for US, and bad for China ?

IF there is no possible acceptable evidence for it ,then the whole forum is nothing else just an echo chamber.
 

Bltizo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Question was simple, is there any information, data, event that can be considered as negative, or even neutral from the PRC government?

I It can be expanded to different dimensions as well.
Of course there are many things within China that could be better, where results have been poor, or where advancement could be faster. From developing a more robust public health system to improving education penetrance, to tackling continuing food quality issues and developing more robust strategic industries necessary to China's continued technological advancement.


But if you're trying to ask leading questions to get an answer that many Chinese either here or in China disapprove of the overall national trajectory and strategic direction that China has taken over the last few decades, then you're probably going to be disappointed.
 
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