Yemen Crisis/Conflict & the "Decisive Storm" Coalition

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
I hope and pray for the people of Yemen's sake that this ends soon.

It does have the potential of developing into a wider regional conflict and I also hope and pray that can be avoided.

As it is...if Egypt and Saudi Arabia make any large incursion of ground troops into Yemen against the rebels, with the use of their large modern air forces and the many planes also being provided by coalition countries...I do not see the rebels as being able to prevail at all.

They may try to turn into a protracted insurgency perhaps...but the Saudis and the Egyptians will undoubtedly fight it in such a fashion as to not allow any sanctuary for the fighters...and will probably also have little or no sympathy or mercy on any civilian population that harbors them.

Time will tell...but as I say, for those people's sake I pray it will come to a swift conclusion.
 
It is a strong coalition.

Basically Saudi Arabia has enlisted nine other Mid-East countries to support the military operation to defeat the Iranian backed rebels.

Saudi Arabia - 100 aircraft, 150,000 troops, Naval vessels
Egypt - Naval Vessels
UAE - 30 aircraft
Bahrain - 15 aircraft
Kuwait - 15 aircraft
Qatar - 10 aircraft
Jordan - 6 aircraft
Morocco - 6 aircraft
Sudan - 3 aircraft
Pakistan - undetermined number of naval ships and aircraft

The US will be supplying logistical support and intelligence.

SD's own NavalRecon has reported very well on this crisis:

Yemen Crisis: Saudi Arabia and Egypt Blockade Yemen, Coalition formed

This is a good example of the US strategy to let local allies take the lead and bear the burden of maintaining a local balance of power. The Saudis have an overwhelming force lined up and it interestingly includes Qatar which had its differences with Saudi strategy in the region regarding Syria, Iraq, and Egypt.

Iran had been on the back foot since Syria descended into civil war and the rise of IS in both Syria and Iraq. The Iranian support for the Houthis is probably a ploy to distract the Saudis from Syria and Iraq but the Saudis have pulled out all the stops and trumped that move with an overwhelming coalition that after it successfully intervenes in Yemen can then be used to intervene against IS or other Iraqi or Syrian factions. I am predicting when rather than if as the Houthis are nowhere near powerful enough to contest this intervention force, even if Iran tries to directly intervene on their behalf.

It remains to be seen if the Sunnis, Shiites, and Israel will balance each other out in the region in the long term with minimal action by the US. An across the region victory for the Sunnis, which is really the only faction with the financial, military, and political resources to be capable of such a victory, may mean either extremists from all sides will be preoccupied within the region or battle-hardened ones may be unleashed on the rest of the world.
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
This is a good example of the US strategy to let local allies take the lead and bear the burden of maintaining a local balance of power. The Saudis have an overwhelming force lined up and it interestingly includes Qatar which had its differences with Saudi strategy in the region regarding Syria, Iraq, and Egypt.

Iran had been on the back foot since Syria descended into civil war and the rise of IS in both Syria and Iraq. The Iranian support for the Houthis is probably a ploy to distract the Saudis from Syria and Iraq but the Saudis have pulled out all the stops and trumped that move with an overwhelming coalition that after it successfully intervenes in Yemen can then be used to intervene against IS or other Iraqi or Syrian factions. I am predicting when rather than if as the Houthis are nowhere near powerful enough to contest this intervention force, even if Iran tries to directly intervene on their behalf.

It remains to be seen if the Sunnis, Shiites, and Israel will balance each other out in the region in the long term with minimal action by the US.
Good comments and overview of the implications to this point.

An across the region victory for the Sunnis, which is really the only faction with the financial, military, and political resources to be capable of such a victory, may mean either extremists from all sides will be preoccupied within the region or battle-hardened ones may be unleashed on the rest of the world.
This last part does get a little too much on the ideological/political forecasting side.

We do not want to go there on SD.

It already produced a much more purey ideological response and those will not be allowed.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

BY
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
| March 22nd, 2015 | [email protected] |
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The US governemnt has withdrawn its military and remaining diplomatic personnel from Yemen as the security situation has spiraled out of control over the past week. Among the forces pulled from Yemen were more than 100 military advisors who were training Yemeni counterterrorism personnel to battle al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. The withdrawal of US forces from Yemen takes place just six months after President Barack Obama described the US strategy of partnering with local Yemeni forces as “one that we have successfully pursued … for years.”

The US yanked its military forces Al Anad Air Base after AQAP forces and allied tribes briefly took control of the nearby city of Houta, the capital of Lahj province, on March 20. Al Anad is located just 20 miles north of Houta. Yemeni military forces loyal to ousted President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who is based in the nearby city of Aden, regained control of Houta after AQAP fighters withdrew without a fight.

The US military has not commented on the withdrawal of its forces from Al Anad, which was a key node in the US and Yemeni governments’ fight against AQAP. But the US State Department confirmed in a press release that the US government “has temporarily relocated its remaining personnel out of Yemen.”

“We also continue to actively monitor terrorist threats emanating from Yemen and have capabilities postured in the area to address them,” State claimed. “As we have in the past, we will take action to disrupt continuing, imminent threats to the United States and our citizens.”

The US Embassy in Sana’a was evacuated at the end of February. US Marines stationed at the embassy
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
prior to boarding a civilian flight out of the country.

AQAP’s foray into Houta was preceded by attacks from the rival Islamic State, Shia Houthi rebels, and infighting between forces loyal to President Hadi. Additionally, today Houthi forces have taken control of the city of Taiz, Yemen’s third largest and are now just 120 miles from Aden,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

On March 20, the Islamic State deployed four suicide bombers at two Houthi mosques in the capital of Sana’a’, killing more than 100 worshiper. The Islamic State threatened to carry out more such attacks.

On the previous day, forces loyal to Hadi battled a rival military commander at Aden’s international airport. Thirteen people were killed before Hadi’s troops took control of the airport,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. During the fighting, an aircraft thought to have been flown by the Houthi-led government based in Sana’a struck the presidential palace in Aden.

Hadi fled to Aden in late February after escaping house arrest in Sana’a. He was forced to resign his presidency in January after intense pressure from the Iranian-backed Shiite Houthi rebels, who took control of much of northern and western Yemen late last summer. Hadi has been the US’ biggest supporter in the fight against al Qaeda’s branch in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. He was a vocal supporter of the unpopular drone strikes, which have targeted al Qaeda’s leaders and operatives in Yemen.

Yemen is one of several key bases for al Qaeda’s global network. Some of al Qaeda’s top leaders operate from Yemen, including Nasir al Wuhayshi, who serves as general manager in addition to AQAP’s emir. While the US has killed several key AQAP leaders since ramping up drone and air strikes in Yemen at the end of 2009, Wuhayshi and much of AQAP’s leadership cadre continue to operate. In addition to seeking to take control of Yemen, AQAP has been has been at the forefront of plotting attacks against the US and the West.

The withdrawal of US forces is a major blow to President Obama’s hands-off approach in the Middle East. On Sept. 11, 2014, Obama touted the counterterrorism strategy of US airpower working with “partner forces on the ground” in both Yemen and Somalia as “one that we have successfully pursued … for years.” [See LWJ reports,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.]

Today, the US has few Yemeni forces left to partner with and a limited ability to do so. Whatever friendly forces that do remain are confined to limited geographical area and over the next several weeks and months will be focusing on survival.

Tags:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Hmmm...the sourcing on this is not verified yet, but here's the headline:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Military and Defense News said:
The Egyptian navy has fired warning shots at Iranian warships near Bab el-Mandab Strait.

Earlier four Egyptian naval vessels sailed to secure Gulf of Aden, Reuters reports citing Suez Canal sources, reported.

The four Egyptian naval vessels crossed the Suez Canal en route to Yemen to secure the Gulf of Aden, maritime sources at the Suez Canal said Thursday.

The sources said they expected the vessels to reach the Red Sea by Thursday evening.

Warplanes from Saudi Arabia and Arab allies struck the Shiite Muslim rebels fighting to oust Yemen’s president on Thursday, a gamble by the world’s top oil exporter to check Iranian influence in its backyard without direct military backing from Washington.

The Saudi-led Firmness Storm coalition has imposed a naval blockade on Bab El-Mandab strait which connects the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean, sources told Ahram Online.

The Saudi navy’s western fleet has also secured Yemen’s main ports including Aden and Midi.
 

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
Around 1/3 of Yemen is Houthis and more support them, how else do you think they managed to take over the country, presidential palace and government buildings

Saudi has made a big mistake this is not winnable

Plus they have just annoyed the Iranians which is never a good idea

Tehran has 4 capitals under its sphere of influence Baghdad , Beirut , Damascus and Sanna they can pull all sorts of strings anywhere

I Believe this will cost the Arab coalition Yemen has some really tough terrain, British SAS operated there for many years it's ideal for run and hit warfare
 

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Does the Egyptian navy have sole responsibility for the security of the Suez canal (yes I know it belongs to them) or is it a coalition of combine naval forces around the world taking turns helping them out as well?
Right now the major combatants of the Egyptian Navy are four Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates, two modernized Knox class frigates, two Jianghu class frigates, and four El-Suez class corvettes that are fairly modern.

They intend to add a FREMM Class Frigate and four Gowind class frigates in the future...but they have not been delivered/built yet (though apparently the FREMM Frigate will be delivered fairly quickly because they will be getting a French vessel that is already built).

Anyhow, the Egyptians are responsible for the canal. But in any serious threat you would see the US and UK and others helping out quickly IMHO.

But this activity is going to occur far down the Red Sea near the Strait of Bab el Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. . Hundreds of miles from the canal.
 
Top