World non-renewable energy discussion

Since non-renewable energy has such a huge strategic impact, let's have a three just on that.

Looks like Natural Gas is one way to narrow trade gap between US and China. I'd be curious to see how many natural gas plant they are able to build up.
I wonder if this is just a shift of where they buy LNG. From Australia to US.

This guy describes how China is giving up on its production rights in many Western countries in light of the Russian seizures and are likely to collaborate with Russians.

LNG producers are using Russia/Ukraine conflict to try to get around environmental rules. lol. Very smart of them

Yeah, European Gas prices are back to record highs

And this is screwing over developing countries like Pakistan. Why send your LNG to developing countries when you can get a lot more money from Europeans

European loss is China/India's gain. Western leaders seem to want to ignore that these commodities are fungible. You can't shut Russia out of the world market.

More on Natural Gas
Key points:
- Takes a long time to build up pipeline and LNG export facility in order to send NG to other countries.
- Pre-Invasion, Russia exported 15 bcf per day to Europe. In total, the world had 50 bcf per day of export. US was reponsible for 12 bcf of that. So, to wean off Russia, Europe would need to make up 30% of all of the world's NG export.
- FreePort LNG facility explosion took 20% export capacity off market.
- As such, American NG (Henry Hub) is at $6 per MM BTU
- Europe is at $50 and Asia is at $40.
- So cheap energy in America and really expensive energy everywhere else.
- American NG companies want to export, but EPA may pressure Cheniere to retrofit LNG terminals in Texas/Louisiana to meet higher environmental standard, which could knock off almost half of export capacity from America
- That would be deadly for Europe/Asia.
- If NordStream 1 does not re-open after repairs, European economy is in real trouble. Europe (aka Germany) will loose its manufacturing base

- Higher LNG price would also probably hammer Japanese economy. Russia has already cut off LNG project with Japan.

- Also terrible for farmers who need NG/oil for fertilizers

I want to just post this tweet and see a couple of years later who things ramp up to projection.


This and the following tweet shows where LNG pipeline from Russia to china are flowing from.

power of siberia 2 going forward, likely starting construction in 2022. Would add another 50 bcm a year to China. As mentioned above, current cap is 38 bcm for power of siberia 1. Although, that will not reach capacity for a couple of more years.

here is the initial announcement for POS 2. Even if this gets fully ramped up, 88 bcm a year is still much less than the 150 bcm Russia currently exports to Europe. I wonder if they will build even more export infrastructures.

This is a very interesting topic. Given the recent drama over the Siemens gas turbines being confiscated in Canada (Canada's been going on an abduction spree of late... telecom executives, gas turbines) and Russia shutdown of NS1 for "maintenance", I wondered whether Russia could actually dismantle the pipeline infrastructure going to Europe and redirect it toward China instead of constructing new pipelines. Is such a thing technically feasible? If so, how much faster would it be than a greenfield project?

ZeEa5KPul said:

This is a very interesting topic. Given the recent drama over the Siemens gas turbines being confiscated in Canada (Canada's been going on an abduction spree of late... telecom executives, gas turbines) and Russia shutdown of NS1 for "maintenance", I wondered whether Russia could actually dismantle the pipeline infrastructure going to Europe and redirect it toward China instead of constructing new pipelines. Is such a thing technically feasible? If so, how much faster would it be than a greenfield project?

Click to expand...

short answer is no.
long answer
its faster building greenfield. earthworks and infrastructures has to be new in any case, you will need alot more field compressor stations etc and cheap enough to get the parts from China. The actual pipes itself is also cheap, getting them in from China in bulk lengths and lots of automatic welding machines and not having to go back to old paper works for all the previous quality data or have new leaks spring up from old equipment.

ZeEa5KPul said:

This is a very interesting topic. Given the recent drama over the Siemens gas turbines being confiscated in Canada (Canada's been going on an abduction spree of late... telecom executives, gas turbines) and Russia shutdown of NS1 for "maintenance", I wondered whether Russia could actually dismantle the pipeline infrastructure going to Europe and redirect it toward China instead of constructing new pipelines. Is such a thing technically feasible? If so, how much faster would it be than a greenfield project?

Click to expand...

Does makes me wonder how long does it take to create a LNG shipping fleet for the time being?

All the H1 data is coming out now
For electricity
Thermal -3.9%
Hydro +20.3%
nuclear +2.0%
Wind +7.8%
solar +13.5%
Total +0.7%

natural gas production +4.9% to 109bcm
crude oil production +4.0% to 102.88 million ton
processed crude -6.0% to 332.22 million ton
coal production +11% to 219 million ton

So what does this say? Renewables way up, domestic production of natural gas/crude oil/coal up a little bit. Note, from famous Daqing oil fields.

On the converse, import of natural gas and crude oil are down. Processed crude (both for domestic and export) down quite a bit.
crude oil import down to 252.52 million. natural gas import down 10% to 53.57 million ton, which is about 78 bcm.
Out of the natural gas import, LNG down 20% to 31.26 mt -> 46 bcm and gas pipeline up 11.3% for the remaining 33 bcm.
in both cases, seems to me that they are getting more from domestic and Russia production.
Coal import down by 1/3 in June (but import from Russia was up 20% in May and 50% in June)

Again, POS2 will start construction in 2024
with 50 bcm there + fully utilizing of POS1 + gas pipeline from Kazakhstan and Myanmar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Asia–China_gas_pipeline
Central Asia gas pipeline can carry at most 65 bcm.
Myanmar gas pipeline can carry at most 12 bcm
If we assume some domestic growth in natural gas. Could be looking at 250 + 88 + 65 + 12 = 415 bcm from just domestic production and gas pipeline import. Now in reality, the pipelines probably won't carry that much due to production, demand, pricing and possible repair work and such. But the potential is there to get probably up 200 bcm from pipelines and LNG tankers from Russia (safe from possible cut to LNG supply). But given that they only imported 78 bcm in first half, 200 bcm would be sufficient to cover their full need in the future when they are likely to need more natural gas to balance out the renewable energy supply.

For oil, this is the first decline since 2011.
probably a function to more EVs, fewer flights and slow economic growth.
Keep in mind even with the declines, China still gets most of its oil from import.
about 35.82 million ton imported and 17.19 million ton produced. Probably around 9 million ton to imported from Russia (works out to be about 64 million barrels or over 2 million bpd). So about 26 million domestic + Russia and 26 million from other countries. Of course, there are imports from other places like through Myanmar (12 million ton a year) and Kazakhstan (20 million ton a year) that can't be cut off if Malacca is choked off.

With the current structure and increased EV adoption, China's pretty much sanction proof in oil/gas/coal.

tphuang said:

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power of siberia 2 going forward, likely starting construction in 2022. Would add another 50 bcm a year to China. As mentioned above, current cap is 38 bcm for power of siberia 1. Although, that will not reach capacity for a couple of more years.

Click to expand...

they are increasing it to 48 bcm on POS-1.

Godzilla said:

short answer is no.
long answer
its faster building greenfield. earthworks and infrastructures has to be new in any case, you will need alot more field compressor stations etc and cheap enough to get the parts from China. The actual pipes itself is also cheap, getting them in from China in bulk lengths and lots of automatic welding machines and not having to go back to old paper works for all the previous quality data or have new leaks spring up from old equipment.

Click to expand...

Gazprom manufactures it's own pipes. Russia also has a large steel fittings industry including oil and gas grade fittings.

What Russian industry might have a hard time with are the latest electronics like well monitors, flow meters, etc.