World non-renewable energy discussion

tphuang

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so there is the possible Saudi news next week and this
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China paying Russians/Iranians in CNH.
so let's say they get these 3 big energy producers all to accept RMB on a permanent basis. How long before they insist on paying RMB to all exporters? Certainly, I could see other Arab countries, Venezuela, African countries and Malaysia be amenable to that.
If they can get big exchanges like LSE that with future contracts that quote Brent in CNH, that would be huge.
 

tphuang

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I have another theory about delisting of Chinese companies from NYSE
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Notice 3 out of 5 are the large state owned oil companies. Listing on NYSE allows them to get USD which they can use to do business abroad. Now if they can directly access oil projects with RMB, there just isn't as much of a need to access USD.

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The visit is definitely happening. We are looking at PetroYuan deal, probably some military deals with technology transfer, Chinese involvement in the megacity project of Neom and other projects to help Saudi 2030 vision. I think China will offer quite a bit here to get this PetroYuan deal sealed up. The Arab countries generally follow along Saudi Arabia.
 

PiSigma

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I have another theory about delisting of Chinese companies from NYSE
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Notice 3 out of 5 are the large state owned oil companies. Listing on NYSE allows them to get USD which they can use to do business abroad. Now if they can directly access oil projects with RMB, there just isn't as much of a need to access USD.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The visit is definitely happening. We are looking at PetroYuan deal, probably some military deals with technology transfer, Chinese involvement in the megacity project of Neom and other projects to help Saudi 2030 vision. I think China will offer quite a bit here to get this PetroYuan deal sealed up. The Arab countries generally follow along Saudi Arabia.
Not just follow Saudi Arabia but more like compete with Saudi Arabia. SA being the biggest and defacto leader of OPEC means if they make a decision, the rest have to follow to not get left behind. So if Saudi is willing to accept petroyuan, even for only Chinese sales, it would be a huge coup for RMB.
 

tphuang

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interesting summary of China's NEA document on Natural gas.
- possible growth of NG to 13% of energy consumption by 2030 from 8.9% right now
- Looks like a lot of industrial use for NG still
- More importantly, China's NG production continues to go up and require less import. I would think that NG has to be more competitive in terms of pricing for them to adopt further NG usage.
 

tphuang

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This is a good article on China's role in LNG market
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obviously, it's a little distorted now due to Russia invasion. I think their pipeline imports and domestic production is up this year and LNG imports are down due to the high prices. However, some interesting charts in there. Japan, SK and Taiwan are all heavily dependent on LNG deliveries, which mean China controls the maritime route for energy supply into these places. It's not easy to quickly replace NG in energy generation.

Also note that Russia was just 15% of China's pipeline import in 2021. I expect that to go way up in the future as Russia re-orients its energy policies to Asia with new POS pipelines. Also interesting to see that China does get quite a bit of LNG from countries like Russia, Indonesia and Malaysia that would be totally immune to any disruption over Malacca straits. I would imagine that Qatar deliveries would also be hard to interdict.
 

tphuang

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tphuang

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The European energy situation just keeps getting more ridiculous. By the way, I do wonder as a whole, if China can start building gas pipelines with the goal of using itself as a transit point and exporting natural gas to places like Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. If it can produce more of its own and import plenty at discount from POS pipelines, maybe it can export some of its own production at higher prices than Russian/central Asian pipelines but lower than LNG
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Why do the French torture themselves like this

Very smart of Norway, screw rest of the Europe for their self created problems
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tphuang

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Overbom

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Does anyone seriously cares about the EUpeans? They are a lost cause.

If we say that the US is a declining empire then Europe is doing a speedrun towards the abyss. Actual Karma, can't wait for Winter to come. Lets hope that Papa Putin has the cojones to send them back to the stone age for a few months
 

gelgoog

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Looks like Natural Gas is one way to narrow trade gap between US and China. I'd be curious to see how many natural gas plant they are able to build up.
...
This guy describes how China is giving up on its production rights in many Western countries in light of the Russian seizures and are likely to collaborate with Russians.
I think this is China just using their funny money dollar reserves to buy hard assets and flip them later for money. China gets the LNG today and then they will flip it to US aligned countries. Wonderful arbitrage opportunity.

power of siberia 2 going forward, likely starting construction in 2022. Would add another 50 bcm a year to China. As mentioned above, current cap is 38 bcm for power of siberia 1. Although, that will not reach capacity for a couple of more years.

here is the initial announcement for POS 2. Even if this gets fully ramped up, 88 bcm a year is still much less than the 150 bcm Russia currently exports to Europe. I wonder if they will build even more export infrastructures.
Actually if you add together POS 2 i.e. Soyuz Vostok rated capacity with the planned Russian LNG export terminals from Yamal you will easily get to those 150 bcm. And the 150 bcm are not just to Europe. They are also to non-former Soviet European Countries including Turkey. So Russia will have to switch over less than 150 bcm.
Also, Russia's gas export revenues are less important to their economy than what a lot of people think. They are dwarfed by oil revenues for example. And oil is way more fungible.

I wonder if the Siemens compressor was specified by Germany. Russia makes their own compressors actually so it isn't necessarily a limitations.
Probably a way of Russia to throw a bone to Germany. These are likely large compressors, basically gas turbines, which Russia did not manufacture back then. Power of Siberia uses Russian made gas compressors. Either Russian designed and made ones, or GE licensed ones 100% made in Russia. Siemens blew it on the Russian market with their fumble after the sanctions on Crimea. Their main licensor, Power Machines, is now making its own 100% Russian design as a result.

lol, it's absolutely comical that EU politicians think EU countries should "stick together and watch out for each other", when each country's elected officials need to take care of their own citizens.
"stick together" my foot. It wasn't that way when the "peripheral countries" had issues with balance of trade after the EU light industry imploded because Germany wanted to export machine tools to China and get cheap crap for themselves in return.

It should surprise no one that China is not going to just rely on Russian for NG supplies.
China is doing the right thing. They have deep pockets so they will just buy all the available resources and resell if necessary.

Interesting story here. Algeria delegation heading to China to convince their funding and maybe expertise in building a trans-Sahara pipeline from central Arica to Algeria. This would be huge for Algeria economy and should be more environmental than the longer gas pipeline via coast of Africa.
That place is a landmine. Hugely unstable. The pipeline looks nice on paper but that area has more Al-Qaeda funded terrorists than you can imagine.

The European energy situation just keeps getting more ridiculous. By the way, I do wonder as a whole, if China can start building gas pipelines with the goal of using itself as a transit point and exporting natural gas to places like Vietnam, Thailand and South Korea. If it can produce more of its own and import plenty at discount from POS pipelines, maybe it can export some of its own production at higher prices than Russian/central Asian pipelines but lower than LNG
It makes no economic sense to pipe Russian gas to Indochina. The pipelines would be way too long. Vietnam itself has some oil&gas deposits in the ocean. It would make sense to make pipelines into South Korea and/or Japan from Sakhalin, there were plans at one point, but in the current environment it won't happen.

Why do the French torture themselves like this

Very smart of Norway, screw rest of the Europe for their self created problems
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Germany's retarded "Green" policy of wind & gas with closure of nuclear power plants led to this. It is fully self imposed. And in a normal situation the current French nuclear reactor maintenance period would have been ok, but not with everyone else also having shortages.

If Norway stops hydropower electric flows then Denmark will likely be screwed. They use them as a giant battery for their wind power.
 
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